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The 2025 Christmas Hurdle

Ian_Davies

Ian_Davies

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Nine entries for this Boxing Day feast over timber at the under-threat Sunbury venue.

Alexei Joe Tizzard
Anzadam Willie Mullins
Celtic Dino Sam Thomas
Give It To Me Oj Gary & Josh Moore
Golden Ace Jeremy Scott
Nemean Lion Kerry Lee
Rubaud Paul Nicholls
Sir Gino Nicky Henderson
Tripoli Flyer Fergal O'Brien

Ante Post Betting: Link to follow
 
Nine entries and the bookies are only going two places.

I think it's accepted that Alexei won't run but that would still leave eight so there's really no excuse for them not going three places this far out.

The one I have my eye on is an each-way price but there's no way I'm going to get involved at two places.

FWIW I reckon Alexei probably had as good a chance in this as it did in yesterday's race.
 
Fascinating race in my eyes.

I'm not big on taking short prices about horses after long lay-offs - it's not just a question of fitness, it's whether a horse retains its ability and the percentage of horses (even young horses) who, for one reason or another, just aren't the same the next season is high enough to make me wary.

Didn't Sir Gino nearly die or something?

He's probably fine now, but "probably" doesn't cut it for me at 8/11.

Take him out and I'm afraid I think the Fighting Fifth form is as good it gets.

But the mare is capable of running a shocker, I've gone from loving Anzadam to thinking he's a bridle ponce and Nemean Lion is a bit behind both.

If Alexei was going to be a Champion Hurdler, he'd have won off 147 on Saturday.

He didn't, so he won't be.

Walsworth could beat the rest on his Penny Farthing, granted a following wind after a beans on toast.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-r...tional-hunt/ladbrokes-christmas-hurdle/winner
 
Surely they won't run Anzadam and Sir G against each other ? The obvious answer is Anzadam runs in Ireland but Mullins is fairly well covered in that race there is a little part of me that thinks is Henderson about to slip the punters another custard ?

I'l hold my hands up to having backed Celtic Dino for the champion hurdle in an impulsive moment a couple of months ago and I'm probably thinking I was way off the mark despite the Welsh champion form working out alright. He also put his worst performance up at this course last year when best out of sight by Tripoli Flyer. I'm not holding out much hope that he'll run well enough here to warrant an entry in the big one in March.

Looking at the betting there's not much room for manoeuvre. Probably the best price available in the race atm from an antepost perspective would be Golden ace at 5's as you know she's running, in form and running to a standard that none of these bar Sir Gino has ever surpassed or is ever likely to with exception of Anzadam but as said I don't think both Donnelly horses will run. As you said Sir Gino is back from a lay off so has his own questions to answer at an odds on price.

Not bet race for me but will be interested to see how Celtic Dino gets on but I fear it'll be one ante-post ticket up in smoke after this.
 
Danny said:
Surely they won't run Anzadam and Sir G against each other ? The obvious answer is Anzadam runs in Ireland but Mullins is fairly well covered in that race there is a little part of me that thinks is Henderson about to slip the punters another custard ?

I'l hold my hands up to having backed Celtic Dino for the champion hurdle in an impulsive moment a couple of months ago and I'm probably thinking I was way off the mark despite the Welsh champion form working out alright. He also put his worst performance up at this course last year when best out of sight by Tripoli Flyer. I'm not holding out much hope that he'll run well enough here to warrant an entry in the big one in March.

Looking at the betting there's not much room for manoeuvre. Probably the best price available in the race atm from an antepost perspective would be Golden ace at 5's as you know she's running, in form and running to a standard that none of these bar Sir Gino has ever surpassed or is ever likely to with exception of Anzadam but as said I don't think both Donnelly horses will run. As you said Sir Gino is back from a lay off so has his own questions to answer at an odds on price.

Not bet race for me but will be interested to see how Celtic Dino gets on but I fear it'll be one ante-post ticket up in smoke after this.
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We're on the same page, Daniel.

I probably won't have a bet, but if I do it may well be Golden Ace.

I'm not taking 8/11 about a beast who was having the last rites read to him a year ago and hasn't been sighted since and I think she's less likely to have a Wetherby-esque off day than Anzadam (if he even shows up) is to down tools if asked to battle.

Golden Ace may be the luckiest Champion Hurdle winner ever, but the two fallers who gifted it to her are imo gone at the game and sidelined with injury, so she actually sets the bar at the moment.
 
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I think people made a lot of her being a lucky Champion hurdle winner which no doubt she was. But she was going to come a decent 2nd to Stateman and got to within about 4 lengths of him at Punchestown after that and Stateman at his best is proper top level. So It does take a very good one to beat her when on song and there doesn't look very many top class 2 milers about atm. Hopefully something emerges over the festive period.
 
Timeform's top hurdlers (as of 16 December). Not a single runner in the Christmas Hurdle is listed, hardly surprising since the listed ORs at the moment range from 141 to 152. That's lower Class 2 handicap level. Sir Gino's OR on his chase debut was 157 so I presume that was his hurdles rating following his final win. His current hurdles OR is showing at 163, the same as his chase OR so I presume it is derived from the latter.

As I keep saying, I think hurdlers tend to improve 10lbs for going chasing so the logician in me reckons 10lbs should be deducted when they revert to hurdles.

In SG's case, I'd expect his chase rating to go up to 167+ and for him to be able to run to 157 here, enough to win but not worth backing to do so.

Anzadam's OR as listed in his profile at the RP is 157 but he didn't exactly look that good at Newcastle.

1766396609762.png
 
Desert Orchid said:
Timeform's top hurdlers (as of 16 December). Not a single runner in the Christmas Hurdle is listed, hardly surprising since the listed ORs at the moment range from 141 to 152. That's lower Class 2 handicap level. Sir Gino's OR on his chase debut was 157 so I presume that was his hurdles rating following his final win. His current hurdles OR is showing at 163, the same as his chase OR so I presume it is derived from the latter.

As I keep saying, I think hurdlers tend to improve 10lbs for going chasing so the logician in me reckons 10lbs should be deducted when they revert to hurdles.

In SG's case, I'd expect his chase rating to go up to 167+ and for him to be able to run to 157 here, enough to win but not worth backing to do so.

Anzadam's OR as listed in his profile at the RP is 157 but he didn't exactly look that good at Newcastle.

View attachment 24724
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Celtic Dino is rated a lowly 147 (PPR) but chased home Woodhooh (rec 7 lb) , over too far,on the wrong ground must surely enter calculations somewhere.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Nine entries and the bookies are only going two places.

...

The one I have my eye on is an each-way price but there's no way I'm going to get involved at two places.
Click to expand...

Only six runners, which the bookies probably knew was going to be the case, so my only options are to risk win only at a big price or wimp out for two places.

Discretion has so far got the better part of valour and I've gone each-way but I might go in again on the day if there's a market without SG.

Rubaud 20/1

in October '24 it won [I think] the race that Rooster Booster won at Kempton in its Champion Hurdle season, giving Kihavah a 14lbs beating in a time that was reasonable enough to conclude that it wasn't a false-run race.

Kivavah then went to the Fighting Fifth and got a 14lbs beating from Sir G.

Tenuous, yes, but tenuous has paid off in the past.

The third, fourth and fifth have run to within a pound of their OR differentials and if the race were to be rated via their ORs Rubaud would come out on 158 plus whatever it had in hand having won comfortably.

On current ORs he's still third best and we don't know if Sir G can run to its OR, which is derived from its chase form, plus it returns to hurdles after an interrupted season and has to defy a year's absence so its fitness levels might be in doubt, and we don't know which Golden Ace will turn up.

I don't think Rubaud should be anywhere near 20/1.

But I've been known to get a race wrong before.
 
I takes one Hell of a horse to beat Lump Sum (OR 147) by an easy eight lengths.*

It's a little-known fact that only 24 horses have ever beaten Lump Sum over hurdles.**

*Except it doesn't.

**He's bang average.

I think it's safe to say almost dying was never the plan for Sir Gino.

And reverting to hurdles probably wasn't either until Constitution Fell (you see what I did there?) had his latest mishap.

Of all the odds-on shots I can happily see win without my cash on them this year, Sir Gino comes top of the list.

I wouldn't back the horse with Walsworth's money (if he had any, that is).

Golden Ace was one of the worst Champion Hurdle winners I can remember and she's not exactly bombproof reliable herself (Wetherby), but, Sir Lazarus aside, look at the absolute shower in against her, who have to give her the gender allowance.

Yes, Sir Gino might beat her by eight, but if "year off boy" doesn't deliver she could just as easily beat the rest by eight.

Can't wait for this race tbh - win or lose it's going to be a lot of fun.
 
edgt said:
That about sums it up Len.
Golden Ace is consistent, reliable and jumps like a hurdler should.
A lot of the others, including Sir Gino don't or haven't recently.
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Get her to Cheltenham in March, and she is guaranteed to run her race. Unbeaten at Cheltenham in March.

Hidden in plain sight, I tell ya!
 
Just looking at this screenshot of the field ordered by RPR, it raises several questions for me, apart from seriously questioning the very quality of the race, which strikes me as maybe one of the poorest line-ups for a G1 hurdle.

Should there be such a wide difference in the respective odds of Sir G and Golden Ace?

Should Rubaud be pretty much three times the price of Celtic Dino?

Should Tripoli Flyer be nearly six times the price of Celtic Dino?

On ORs, should Give It To Me Oj be twice the price of Tripoli Flyer?

Bearing in mind the last three mentioned above are second-season novices aren't they all entitled to improve a fair bit? At the current odds, a £1 combination tricast, were it to happen, would pay not far off £50k. You could throw £3 away on much bigger wastes of time. (Like a daily edition of the Racing Post.)

1766571029846.png
 
Desert Orchid said:
Just looking at this screenshot of the field ordered by RPR, it raises several questions for me, apart from seriously questioning the very quality of the race, which strikes me as maybe one of the poorest line-ups for a G1 hurdle.

Should there be such a wide difference in the respective odds of Sir G and Golden Ace?

Should Rubaud be pretty much three times the price of Celtic Dino?

Should Tripoli Flyer be nearly six times the price of Celtic Dino?

On ORs, should Give It To Me Oj be twice the price of Tripoli Flyer?

Bearing in mind the last three mentioned above are second-season novices aren't they all entitled to improve a fair bit? At the current odds, a £1 combination tricast, were it to happen, would pay not far off £50k. You could throw £3 away on much bigger wastes of time. (Like a daily edition of the Racing Post.)

View attachment 24733
Click to expand...

Yes, there should be a big gap because Sir Gino has barely scratched the surface over hurdles. Golden Ace, on the other hand, is quite easily the most overrated horse on this forum of the last decade. I get that some members have a soft spot for her, but until she wins a race without three horses collapsing on the run-in, I’ll remain adamant that she’s a bag of shite in terms of Grade 1 hurdling.
 
Slim said:
bag of shite
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These contemporary terms are so much more pithy and viscereal than those tired old Timeform phrases like "moderate," "poor" and "of no account," not to mention those weird squiggle and double-squiggle thingies.

Just for the record, I do not have a "soft spot" for Golden Ace.

But I do think she has demonstrated a level of ability that a horse returning from a near-death experience and a year off hasn't as yet put in the shade on a racecourse.

Beating OR 147 Lump Sum by an easy eight is a feat any number of non-Grade 1 hurdlers could achieve and several actually have.

Race to watch, really, but I might have a small investment on the mare just to make the inevitable Jeremy Scott-fest here in some quarters, should she prevail, marginally more tolerable.
 

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