• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

The 2025 Derby

I thought this would happen....nothing to do with the lads getting their bets on then...
 
notsodancingbrave said:
On the Betfair sportsbook Lion In Winter is out to 4/1 with Delacroix 11/4. They are thinking that Moore is going to hop on to Delacroix...
Click to expand...
Racing TV had an interesting analysis of Aidan O’Brien’s Dante runners today. He has “only” won the Dante 4 times and the last of those was in 2010. In total he has had 27 Dante runners and only 7 of those have gone on to the Derby. Japan in 2019 was 3rd in the Derby, the only 1 of the 27 to place at Epsom. This clearly suggests he doesn’t send his best Derby candidates to York. If that is true for this year, it might suggest the Dante form is suspect, as Lion in Winter didn’t run too badly given the many things against him (absence, sweating up and pulling hard). It is one angle, and I may look away from that race altogether when finalising a selection.

Anyway, the analysis is as follows:
 

Attachments

  • IMG_0533.webp
    IMG_0533.webp
    134.6 KB · Views: 4
In the words of, among others, Killing Joke: "Unlearn, you must forget the values that you hold."

I've been following racing properly since 1977 and in that time the passing years weren't exactly awash with colts who ran stinkers in the 2,000 Guineas then won The Derby next time out.

Then O'Brien did it twice - and neither colt was a particularly big price given quite how badly they'd run at Newmarket.

There was also a time when multiple runners from Ballydoyle in The Derby seemed to coincide with them not winning the race that year.

But they've had multiple runners and won it, so the saying: "If you think you have two or more Derby horses you haven't got any" is manifestly flawed.

Trends are ephemeral and an open mind is key.

As stated, my main concern with The Lion In Winter (who is in my "Derbfolio," but at 7/1, not the 20/1 Maurice has cunningly secured) is he seems to me to be priced up like he was a Champion, or at least Group 1-winning, 2yo, who is now just waiting to bounce back to elite form.

He isn't - he's a middle-distance bred Acomb winner who wasn't sighted since as a juvenile and was sixth in the Dante after missing the 2,000 Guineas.

He might, at times, have put in the best Derby prep work any of them have ever seen at Ballydoyle, but he's still got a lot to prove on the actual racecourse.

And O'Brien's recent remark suggests Delacroix may have gone the better of the duo in their respective latest bits of work.

But there is still time for that to flip back the other way.

The Derby is never boring in my view and this promises to be an especially fascinating one.
 
Last edited:
Heart warming article in RP about Al Wasl Storm.
He was bred by a 2 mare farmer/breeder who got the dam from his brother in law Paul Nolan, after she had broken down.
Put in foal to Affinisea nearby, he was sold at the November NH Sales for 7,000.
Now he is a Derby runner.
Shades of Carlingford Castle , a son of Le Bavard who was runner up to Teenoso in 1983, for those of you old enough to remember Mick Kinane's first Derby ride.
 
I've no idea if the intention is to run but I've taken some 66/1 about Luther.

Not beaten far behind Henri Matisse at Longchamp, form which has been franked, he is bred to come into his own at a minimum of 12f so even modest improvement should effectively put him in with a very strong chance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've no idea if the intention is to run but I've taken some 66/1 about Luther.

Not beaten far behind Henri Matisse at Longchamp, form which has been franked, he is bred to come into his own at a minimum of 12f so even modest improvement should effectively put him in with a very strong chance.
Click to expand...
Running in the French one on Sunday.
 
Bugger. It never occurred to me to check.

Why the fvck would you give up the chance to win at Epsom for the chance to win a poxy French Derby?!

Oh well, write it off, sunshine, and move on...
 
Ian_Davies said:
Possibly the same logic that got them to run in the Poule D'Essai Des Poulains instead of the 2,000 Guineas? 😂

Should go well at Chantilly!
Click to expand...

Yes, but maybe the Poulains run surprised them a bit?

And maybe with TLIW looking like missing Epsom and Delacroix not looking anything special they might still change their mind.

And maybe Nicole Kidman and Kylie Minogue will break into my bedroom tonight and force me to have carnal conjugation with them.

(So I suppose it's about time I got to bed.)
 
Frankel said:
Hoping Weld gives Purview the green light. Very nice run behind Delacroix.
Click to expand...
Weld has confirmed he won't be running. Wants to give him a bit more time.

Just to point out, he was the quickest through the last 3 furlongs in the race won by Delacroix.
 
Frankel said:
Weld has confirmed he won't be running. Wants to give him a bit more time.

Just to point out, he was the quickest through the last 3 furlongs in the race won by Delacroix.
Click to expand...
Presumably decision made with the Juddmonte team, which leaves them with only Nightwalker.
 
I saw a video of Midak on Facebook. Lovely looking horse but he gallops on his forehand which for me is never ideal when you are running somewhere like Epsom. Happy to be proved wrong!
 
jinnyj said:
I saw a video of Midak on Facebook. Lovely looking horse but he gallops on his forehand which for me is never ideal when you are running somewhere like Epsom. Happy to be proved wrong!
Click to expand...

Wow, I struggle to stand on my forehand, let alone run on it...

:p;)
 
20 confirmed entries.

Al Wasl Storm Owen Burrows
Damysus John and Thady Gosden
Delacroix Aidan O'Brien
Green Storm Charlie Johnston
Lambourn Aidan O'Brien
Lazy Griff Charlie Johnston
Midak Francis Graffard
New Ground Henri-Francois Devin
Nightime Dancer Richard Hannon
Nightwalker John and Thady Gosden
Pride Of Arras Ralph Beckett
Puppet Master Aidan O'Brien
Rogue Impact James Owen
Ruling Court Charlie Appleby
Sea Scout Simon and Ed Crisford
Stanhope Gardens Ralph Beckett
Tennessee Stud Joseph O'Brien
The Lion In Winter Aidan O'Brien
Tornado Alert Saeed bin Suroor
Tuscan Hills Raphael Freire
 
Last edited:
I'm intrigued that only five of the runners have jockeys at the moment.

I'm also intrigued that Marquand is down to ride Nightwalker. He doesn't often ride either for the Gosdens or Juddmonte. Oisin Murphy is Juddmonte's most successful rider this season so are we to assume he has been offered one he prefers himself? Tornado Alert, maybe? Andrew Balding doesn't have a runner so he's free to choose one but he has an excellent record for both the Gosdens and Juddmonte this season and is arguably the most sought-out jockey in the country. Has he knocked back both? For what?

Anyway, I'm comfortable enough at the moment with my 'Derbfolio' (© Mr I Davies) of TLIW (20/1), Nightwalker (100/1) and Tornado Alert 66/1, and I'm pleased for my brother that he took 66/1 Pride Of Arras on the morning of the York race. I'll feel like a winner by proxy if that one goes in.

I can see me going for Ruling Court, though, as my main bet on the day, if not before.
 
Derbfolio: Delacroix 16/1, The Lion In Winter 7/1, Ruling Court (double stake) 6/1, Pride Of Arras (150% stake) 11/2.

TLIW is little more than a saver, tbh, and RC plus POA won't change my life.

I want Delacroix for the dollars.

All win only.
 

Recent Blog Posts

Back
Top