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The 2025 Grand National

I consider Toby McCain-Mitchell a good rider but, in common with a lot of young Point riders switching to rules, no one ever seems to tell them not too win too far once they've got a race sewn up.

So they routinely destroy handicap marks with wide-margin victories left, right and centre.
 
Now I've had a proper look, there's a couple grade 1 performers lurking on decent marks.
Zanahiyr + Fakir Doudaries take the eye. Both 66s. Fakir has a fine record at this meeting. We know the trainer in his relatively short career, can certainly target a race.
 
I've taken two more bets:

Intense Raffles - I Am Maximus won the IGN off 149 then made light of 159 at Aintree a year later after not showing his form until the Bobbyjo just after the weights came out. Intense Raffles won the IGN off 140 and went up to 151 - its Aintree mark - but has been kept to two hurdles races this season to protect its mark. Running in the Bobbbyjo will satisfy its qualification requirements for this year's race. I go much higher than 151 for it and it's a second-season chaser yet to play its hand so could be another 10lbs better again, just like I Am Maximus. I've taken 14/1 (win only) in anticipation of it running very well in the Bobbyjo and it doesn't have to win.

Nick Rockett - now, I am half-expecting this one to win the Bobbyjo so I've taken 20/1 (6 places) in case it does. It was 4/1f for the IGN off 146 but disappointed. It was better in the Whitbread when maybe ridden a tad too conservatively and is now also a second-season novice with plenty of improvement in it, which it showed when winning the Thyestes easily off 152, going up to 161 (163 at Aintree for some reason) for it. He gets 3lbs from Intense Raffles in the Bobbyjo but I have him 14lbs better on my adjusted ratings.

Intense Raffles will be 15lbs better off at Aintree, though...
 
I was just looking at Saturday's Bobbyjo, thinking: "this will be the 'Big Reveal' for the Grand National from Willie Mullins - I wonder if it might Nick Rockett? I also think Intense Raffles might hit peak form too?" and I log on here and see Maurice has already thieved prices about both! 😂

Haven't backed either yet, but I had 25/1 I Am Maximus for the 2024 Grand National going into this last year and that price was a distant memory about he hosed up despite his usual erratic jumping!

Can't wait for this year's Bobbyjo.
 
Intense Raffles @ 25/1 was Timeform's ante-post selection for the National back in October when their horses to follow book came out. Did I back it?

(I think the reason I didn't was because I was in Spain for the month, the brother bought the book for me and by the time I got home nd collected it the 25s were long gone. At least that's what I'm consoling myself with...)
 
I've just seen the updated jockey bookings for the Bobbyjo.

What's the situation with JP runners at the Mullins stable? Does Mark Walsh still get first dibs?

Townend is on IAM for JP. Walsh is on Capo.

Danny is on Minella C.

Hayes is on Nick R.

I always see Hayes as the 'not today' arrangement so I don't think I'll be taking even money Nick Rockett. I'll leave the race alone. I'll be happy for Intense Raffles to win and if NR goes and wins anyway I'll be happy too.
 
If I create any more threads this week, I'll start WWIII all my own 😂, so here might be the safest place to talk about tomorrow's Bobbyjo Chase.

It's arguably the race of the weekend.

I'm not having a bet on it, I don't think, but I could see it again having a dramatic impact on the Grand National betting and it's a proper decent contest in its own right.
 
Aged between seven and nine, both trained in Ireland, they both tick my boxes for winning a modern Grand National - I couldn't put you off!

I'd say they've both got far more chance at Aintree than that pensioner Bravemansgame, who I hear has already been asking if he can negotiate the GN course by bus using his OAP travel pass! 😂
 
Nick Rockett beat Intense Raffles by three parts of a length in the Bobbyjo, but look at the weights today, then look at the weights at Aintree (both alluded to by Maurice earlier in the thread).
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I've taken two more bets:

Intense Raffles - I Am Maximus won the IGN off 149 then made light of 159 at Aintree a year later after not showing his form until the Bobbyjo just after the weights came out. Intense Raffles won the IGN off 140 and went up to 151 - its Aintree mark - but has been kept to two hurdles races this season to protect its mark. Running in the Bobbbyjo will satisfy its qualification requirements for this year's race. I go much higher than 151 for it and it's a second-season chaser yet to play its hand so could be another 10lbs better again, just like I Am Maximus. I've taken 14/1 (win only) [for the GN] in anticipation of it running very well in the Bobbyjo and it doesn't have to win.

Nick Rockett - now, I am half-expecting this one to win the Bobbyjo so I've taken 20/1 (6 places) in case it does. It was 4/1f for the IGN off 146 but disappointed. It was better in the Whitbread when maybe ridden a tad too conservatively and is now also a second-season novice with plenty of improvement in it, which it showed when winning the Thyestes easily off 152, going up to 161 (163 at Aintree for some reason) for it. He gets 3lbs from Intense Raffles in the Bobbyjo but I have him 14lbs better on my adjusted ratings.

Intense Raffles will be 15lbs better off at Aintree, though...
Click to expand...

Race went as well as I could have hoped.
 
It's a colossal weights pull (which neither the Racing Post nor the Sporting Life reports seem to have noticed 😂) at Liverpool for the young, progressive, Irish National winner - Intense Raffles just got added to the Davies Aintree portfolio! 😂
 
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Hi Everyone,

I have finally worked out how to post (lol).

It had been the case for a while that the Grand National winner would be carrying a weight of within a few lbs of 11stone. But last year I Am Maximus carried 11st 6lbs. This made me think I needed to have a rethink on how I viewed the race.

I noticed that if you followed two fairly simple rules you would end up with the first 4 places in last year's National.

I Am Maximus 7/1 Favourite
Delta Work 28/1
Minella Indo 28/1
Galvin 40/1

Not only getting the winner excited me, but the places too. I thought surely half the Field must have qualified using these two rules/observations but to my surprise only a couple more did.

Saying all this, it might have been just been on a one off occasion. But just in case, I have already looked at the 2025 entries There are 17 qualiers at present, which is far too many. I do anticipate this will be reduced hopefully by at least half.

If you would like to know what these two rules/observations are, then please message me privately, rather than I make a complete fool of myself on here (lol).
 
Hi, No I don't understand why, but I am happy to state the two observations I noticed from last year, I will do so now if my message has been posted.
 
Hi,

No need to message me privately.

The two rules/observations from last year's national result was these.

Back every horse each way, perhaps 10/1 or less win.

There are two ways a horse can qualify as a selection.

1. Horse has won a Grade 1 race

And/Or

2. Horse has contested a Grade 1 race the winter season leading up to the National.

Either way a horse can qualify as a selection.
 
Nobody needs to private message anyone to know Intense Raffles ran the most colossal Grand National trial yesterday at Fairyhouse.

A 15lb pull is worth over 21 lengths over 4m2f on the BHA scale, he was beaten less than a length, he's a young, pretty progressive horse, and he's already won an Irish National.

How many more boxes does anyone need ticking?

Put Intense Raffles with Inothewayurthinkin, Iroko and Stumptown in the little-known Super Grand National Quadcast bet in a combination wager and win all the money on the planet.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Nobody needs to private message anyone to know Intense Raffles ran the most colossal trial for this yesterday.

A 15lb pull is worth over 21 lengths on the BHA scale, he was beaten less than a length, he's a young, pretty progressive horse, and he's already won an Irish National.

How many more boxes does anyone need ticking?

Put him with Inothewayurthinkin, Iroko and Stumptoen in thr little-known Quadcast bet and win all the money on the planet.
Click to expand...
Hi Ian,

I have backed him with a free bet, which I had to use, a while ago. Hopefully my last year's observation's prove to be incorrect, as Intense Raffles does not qualify (lol).
 
Alex said:
Hi,

No need to message me privately.

The two rules/observations from last year's national result was these.

Back every horse each way, perhaps 10/1 or less win.

There are two ways a horse can qualify as a selection.

1. Horse has won a Grade 1 race

And/Or

2. Horse has contested a Grade 1 race the winter season leading up to the National.

Either way a horse can qualify as a selection.
Click to expand...
Is class 1 the same as grade one? I backed Auroras Encore after realising that a stand out stat was winning a class 1. Although he would never have won if the fences hadn't been modified. I do like stats when it comes to big races although it’s difficult to use them with the National these days as it changes so much. A 7 year old winning just about finished me off. Although Many Clouds was still technically a 7 year old when he won.
 
Now that the Bobbyjo is out of the way I plan to start doing the race (GN), assuming I can find time every other evening or so over the next week or two to look at about 20 horses each time, maybe only down to entry #60-ish since below that they tend not to make the cut.

I'm still not entirely convinced that 7yos are ideal candidates despite Noble Yeats's win a couple of years ago but Intense Raffles might not be a normal 7yo having been chasing in France as a 4yo.

My take, as always, is that unless the ground is ridiculously heavy as in Red Marauder's year (when it really shouldn't have been run), the race will go to something that is a good way ahead of its mark and the key is to assess their true level as accurately as possible. Get half a dozen such types onside and you'll be unlucky not to have the winner.

Simples.
 
This is a screenshot of the top-rated on RPRs. On the scale, a rating of 176 would be in with a shout in a major Saturday handicap. The ratings don't yet take into account Intense Raffles's run yesterday which would take him to 178 on the scale.

RPRs, for some reason, are a mile behind the curve with Nick Rockett. His OR is 163 but yesterday he posted a career-best RPR of just 160 so he is well down the table. He'd be a lot higher up on my ratings.

Screenshot (152).png
 
I've added 66/1, 5 places, Stay Away Fay.

Here's my thinking:

  • Was rated 159 as a first-season novice when only 6/1 for the Brown Advisory (G1) last season but pulled, later scoped dirty.
  • A respiratory issue was also diagnosed after he pulled up in the Scottish National.
  • In November of last season he beat Grey Dawning. That one is now rated 162.
  • He was a 148-rated first-season novice hurdler when beaten by Apple Away in the G1 at Aintree. My belief is that hurdlers improve 10lbs into their second season and then another 10lbs when they go chasing and possibly another 10lbs into their second season chasing. It doesn't always happen and the higher rated they are as novices the less improvement is likely but they do still usually keep improving.
  • My idea is that when SAF couldn't win the Brown Advisory they decided he wasn't a Gold Cup horse so why not put him away for the National.
  • His wind was operated on in the summer and he has had one run over hurdles this season, presumably to keep him under the radar. It's what they do in Ireland, after all, isn't it?
  • The handicapper, in my opinion, has taken a big risk in dropping him to 150 for this. I reckon he could be a 170 waiting to happen

He still needs to run in one more chase to qualify but he's entered in the Ultima so a run there will do. A big run would see his price collapse.
 


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