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The 2025 Grand National

Ian_Davies said:
A handicap snip has much more chance of winning a Grand National nowadays - the chances of getting round are a lot better and I Am Maximus was one such last year.

I wouldn't ever take a bookie cash-out offer - the maths of hedging on the exchange are always better.

I've never been happier with a GN portfolio as in him, Intense Raffles and Stumptown I feel I have a trio who are all ahead of the Handicapper and Iroko is decent back-up too.
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Inothewayurthinkin 11/4 for the GN now!
 
I hope they don't run him. Just because he's a Gold Cup winner now with a serious future and if something happened to him in the Nash, the antis would be all over it. It's going to be bad enough as it is.
 
This scenario has occurred so many times - my recollection is they usually, but not all, run in the end.

The temptation to go to Aintree with the best part of a stone in hand, on a mark which they will never get again, is usually just too great.

They usually get beat, but not all - Rough Quest exploited a gift mark after being second in a Gold Cup.

Aintree isn't the dangerous test it once was - it's almost the 4m2f Chasers' Gold Cup nowadays - we will see.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Same could be said of Alverton, Master Oats and Garrison Savannah (and there might have been others) so it's by no means a done deal.

I backed those three and I'd worry if I backed INTWYT now because I'd feel I'd be walking back into a hornet's nest.

If I had already backed it for Aintree I'd definitely take the cashout if offered.
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I would be thinking about cashing out if it was being offered but it’s not (backed with Corals)
 
Will Synchronised still play on JP's mind a horse he never should of sent. Ino is a completely different jumper even still Jp has plenty of other ammo for the Nash and the jumps aren't sometimes the problem the size of the field plenty still get brought down.

I'm in agreement with the crowd start planning for next years Gold cup.
 
Ian_Davies said:
This scenario has occurred so many times - my recollection is they usually, but not all, run in the end.

The temptation to go to Aintree with the best part of a stone in hand, on a mark which they will never get again, is usually just too great.

They usually get beat, but not all - Rough Quest exploited a gift mark after being second in a Gold Cup.

Aintree isn't the dangerous test it once was - it's almost the 4m2f Chasers' Gold Cup nowadays - we will see.
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Yes, RQ and Miinniehoma, both of which were my strongest bets in the race, placed in the Gold Cup before the National. Did Mon Mome run in the GC beforehand? I think there's been a few more.

It seems to be okay for beaten horses to do it but maybe they don't give it as much as the winner does. I don't know.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, RQ and Miinniehoma, both of which were my strongest bets in the race, placed in the Gold Cup before the National. Did Mon Mome run in the GC beforehand? I think there's been a few more.

It seems to be okay for beaten horses to do it but maybe they don't give it as much as the winner does. I don't know.
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Mon Mome warmed up for the 2009 GN by finishing a tailed-off eighth in the Midlands National, and then came 3rd in the 2010 GC. Uttoxeter run explains the 100/1 price the following month. Hedgehunter was also placed in the Gold Cup after winning the GN.

Aldaniti and Royal Athlete had third place finishes in the GC two years before winning at Aintree.
 
He was born 4 April 2018. Maths isn’t my strong point but doesn’t that mean he isn’t even 7 yet?
 
In the lead up to the Gold Cup, I was trying to convince a friend of mine it was a good idea, to back Inothewayurthinkin for both the Gold Cup and National. As the double was paying 51/1 with 3x8 (the only bookie I have found that allows you to do a double on the same horse), he replied I can only concentrate on one thing at a time 😆.
 
I no longer have 25/1 Inothewayurthinkin - after last night's machinations I instead effectively have a free bet on the horse for this at circa 20/1.

If he doesn't run, I get my stake back and my other three - Stumptown, Intense Raffles and Iroko - will surely shorten up.

I still think the temptation to emulate Golden Miller will just grow in the days ahead, the racing media will be all over his new mark when it's published - I've seen it time and time again over the years - connections usually cave in the end and the owner isn't getting any younger and this is one achievement he will never get a crack at again, certainly not in such advantageous circumstances.
 
Maurice replied:
JP has won both races; does need to do the double with one horse?

I think he cares about his horses too much to risk it with this one who is still only seven. Synchronised was 6lbs well in in 2012 after winning the Gold Cup but was killed in it. Will he want to risk a repeat?
 
Well, if I was absolutely sure he was going to run, I wouldn't have spent time last night recovering my stake on him by laying the horse on the machine, Maurice, so I take your point.

But you must have seen this "Aintree handicap snip" pantomime play out time and time again yourself over the years - you get the "wait a year," "look after the horse," mob on one side of the argument and the "race horses were born to race," "next year he will be a stone higher" mob on the other.

And the racing media will he absolutely rabid, literally gagging, for the horse to run - they'll be calculating how many lengths (probably around 20) he'll have in hand off his new mark, the lot.

The same-season Gold Cup/Grand National Double is the stuff of Golden Miller - winning the race yet again with something else just isn't the same.

We shall see - I'm comfortable with my betting position on it all now - and let's face it, Ian being happy with the shape of his backer's book is the most important component of all this of all! 😂
 
Totally agree, Ian, and you've done exactly as I have a few times in the past. You've put yourself in a brilliant position with this one.

I think he'll go up 12lbs - I'd equate that to 24 lengths in the National - and the racing media will hang their output on that, conveniently ignoring the fact that there are others in the race who are already 12lbs well in because that's what the minimum it takes to win the race.
 
I am starting to think he may well run. I don't believe the National is the same as it was when Synchronised ran so the risk is not as great. I think what might stop him running, would be the gap time wise between the races or the ground conditions on the day (ideally would like soft).
 
Before yesterday, I'd have agreed he'd want it Soft, but he's just hammered the best Gold Cup winner in years and smashed standard by six seconds in the process - there will not be a surface at Aintree he can't run to his best on.

I agree the shorter time gap between races is an issue but, as Gold Cups go (and it takes a lot out of most) I really didn't think he had that hard a race.

He only come off the bridle between the last two, only had a couple of snacks, and has basically won as he pleased.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I agree the shorter time gap between races is an issue but, as Gold Cups go (and it takes a lot out of most) I really didn't think he had that hard a race.

He only come off the bridle between the last two, only had a couple of snacks, and has basically won as he pleased.
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I think we've seen this before, when something appears to win easily it's assumed it hasn't had that hard a race but when it's a very fast time they often bounce regardless of how well the trainer thinks it has come out of the race.

I'd be very wary, to be honest, and would be very keen to do as you have wisely done, Ian.
 
I agree, Maurice.

Tbh, we've seen different versions of this scenario played out endless times over the years.

If they run. then won't find out if yesterday left its mark until the business end when the horse comes off the bridle.
 
Yes, I mentioned on here some time ago, when I was playing football we'd get to the spring and have to catch up on postponed matches - no undersoil heating when you're playing on coo-fields and red blaes pitches - you'd have a tough game on the Sunday and have to turn up on a Tuesday evening for another. You'd feel very bouncy warming up but within 20 mins your thighs would feel like solid concrete. No doubt a sports scientist would diagnose the effects of lactic acid etc but back then lactic acid was the preserve of David Coleman's Olympics commentaries.
 
Hi,

Whilst relaxing by the pool (lol), I decided to do a bit of research.

Looking back at the 6/7-year-olds horses, that have won the Gold Cup this century,

2002 (14 Mar)
Horse: Best Mate
Jockey: Jim Culloty
Trainer: Henrietta Knight
Owner: Jim Lewis
Odds: 7/1
Age: 7
Field: 18

2005 (18 Mar)
Horse: Kicking King
Jockey: Barry Geraghty
Trainer: Tom Taaffe (IRE)
Owner: Conor Clarkson
Odds: 4/1F
Age: 7
Field: 15

2006 (17 Mar)
Horse: War of Attrition
Jockey: Conor O'Dwyer
Trainer: Mouse Morris (IRE)
Owner: Gigginstown House Stud
Odds: 15/2
Age: 7
Field: 22

2007 (16 Mar)
Horse: Kauto Star
Jockey: Ruby Walsh
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Owner: Clive D. Smith
Odds: 5/4F
Age: 7

2011 (18 Mar)
Horse: Long Run
Jockey: Mr Sam Waley-Cohen
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Owner: Robert Waley-Cohen
Odds: 7/2F
Age: 6
Field: 13

2017 (17 Mar)
Horse: Sizing John
Jockey: Robbie Power
Trainer: Jessica Harrington (IRE)
Owner: Ann & Alan Potts
Odds: 7/1
Age: 7
Field: 13

2019 (15 Mar)
Horse: Al Boum Photo
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: Willie Mullins (IRE)
Owner: Mrs J Donnelly
Odds: 12/1
Age: 7
Field: 16

2023 (17-Mar)
Horse: Galopin Des Champs
Jockey: Paul Townend
Trainer: W P Mullins
Owner: Mrs Audrey Turley
Odds: 7/5F
Age: 7
Field: 13

2025 (14 Mar)
Horse: Inothewayurthinkin
Jockey: Mark Walsh
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell
Owner: J. P. McManus
Odds: 15/2
Age: 7
Field: 9

I think you will agree they are a special lot.
Kicking King (in my opinion, the best of them), War of Attrition and possibly Long Run and Sizing John, were only ever to contest one Gold Cup. Hence the dilemma JP must have in risking Inothewayurthinkin in the Grand National.
 


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