The 2025 Grand National

I take your point, but whether it's stats on age or anything else, IMO you have to be ahead of the curve to get a value edge and that means flying a kite on less than an absolutely overwhelming wealth of evidence sometimes.

If you wait for a trend to become crystal clear, the world and his wife know about it by then and it's factored into the market.

7yo-9yo and Irish yielded me I Am Maximus at 25/1 ante-post last year, not as good as it sounds as I had an extensive portfolio on the race, but it was still a decent result and I'll stick with that line of thinking all the time I think there's mileage in it.
 
Yeah, I know, I had money on too many of them. 😂

But I came out on top and, as in football, the result defines the effectiveness of the strategy IMO.

We may have to agree to differ on this one, but I do respect your counter view.
 
Well, you'd never know today is the day the weights are announced, would you?

Not a mention on the home page of the website or that of ATR or RTV. (The RTV home page is a complete dog's dinner, in my opinion.)

I used to get a wee kick out of compiling the weights for myself before the publication by using the ORs and making some educated guesses at likely adjustments for last-minute form and Irish runners. I did make some posts about same on the old forum many years ago but there didn't seem much interest in it. I continued doing it privately for some time but found it wasn't really worth the bother as the bookies either weren't offering any ante-post market or were going skinny with what they did offer.

Anyroads... it's after 12 noon on the day the weights come out and there isn't a peep anywhere about the race.

How very sad is that.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, you'd never know today is the day the weights are announced, would you?

Not a mention on the home page of the website or that of ATR or RTV. (The RTV home page is a complete dog's dinner, in my opinion.)

I used to get a wee kick out of compiling the weights for myself before the publication by using the ORs and making some educated guesses at likely adjustments for last-minute form and Irish runners. I did make some posts about same on the old forum many years ago but there didn't seem much interest in it. I continued doing it privately for some time but found it wasn't really worth the bother as the bookies either weren't offering any ante-post market or were going skinny with what they did offer.

Anyroads... it's after 12 noon on the day the weights come out and there isn't a peep anywhere about the race.

How very sad is that.
Click to expand...
It's because it's just a hurdle race now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, you'd never know today is the day the weights are announced, would you?

Not a mention on the home page of the website or that of ATR or RTV. (The RTV home page is a complete dog's dinner, in my opinion.)

I used to get a wee kick out of compiling the weights for myself before the publication by using the ORs and making some educated guesses at likely adjustments for last-minute form and Irish runners. I did make some posts about same on the old forum many years ago but there didn't seem much interest in it. I continued doing it privately for some time but found it wasn't really worth the bother as the bookies either weren't offering any ante-post market or were going skinny with what they did offer.

Anyroads... it's after 12 noon on the day the weights come out and there isn't a peep anywhere about the race.

How very sad is that.
Click to expand...
Gordon Elliott was interviewed at the Grand National Weights lunch which is being covered between races at Ayr on RTV. His four horses at Ayr didn't get there because of travel problems.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks, Jayhawk.

Has anyone said anything interesting yet?
Click to expand...
Oliver Greenall said that they were planning to give Iroko another run before the National. Its second place at Aintree last April in the G1 novice chase means it is already qualified to run. Maybe the Greatwood at Newbury or the race at Kelso in early March?

Paul Nicholls was predictably positive about his five - Bravemansgame, Hitman, Stay Away Fay ( needs a run in a chase by mid March ) and Kandoo Kid would be the most interesting of those. Threeunderthrufive could be aimed at the Scottish National the week after depending on ground ( I think ).
 
FULL LIST OF WEIGHTS FOR THE 2025 GRAND NATIONAL

1 I Am Maximus (FR) 9 11 12 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins 167

2 Royale Pagaille (FR) 11 11 9 Mrs S. Ricci Venetia Williams 164

3 Envoi Allen (FR) 11 11 8 Cheveley Park Stud Henry de Bromhead 163

4 Grangeclare West (IRE) 9 11 8 Cheveley Park Stud W. P. Mullins 163

5 L'homme Presse (FR) 10 11 8 Dfa Racing (Pink, Edwards & Sharman) Venetia Williams 163

6 Nick Rockett (IRE) 8 11 8 Stewart & Sadie Andrew W. P. Mullins 163

7 Hewick (IRE) 10 11 7 Mr T. J. McDonald Tara Lee Cogan 162

8 Gentlemansgame (GB) 9 11 5 Robcour M. F. Morris 160

9 Inothewayurthinkin (IRE) 7 11 5 Mr John P. McManus Gavin Cromwell 160

10 Monty's Star (IRE) 8 11 5 Mr Barry Maloney Henry de Bromhead 160

11 The Real Whacker (IRE) 9 11 4 Neville, Mann, Duffus, Dennis-Price Patrick Neville 159

12 Minella Indo (IRE) 12 11 3 Mr Barry Maloney Henry de Bromhead 158

13 Appreciate It (IRE) 11 11 2 Miss M. A. Masterson W. P. Mullins 157

14 Capodanno (FR) 9 11 2 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins 157

15 Conflated (IRE) 11 11 2 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott 157

16 Delta Work (FR) 12 11 2 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott 157

17 Minella Cocooner (IRE) 9 11 2 Mr David Bobbett W. P. Mullins 157

18 Stumptown (IRE) 8 11 2 Furze Bush Syndicate Gavin Cromwell 157

19 Beauport (IRE) 9 11 1 Bryan & Philippa Burrough Nigel Twiston-Davies 156

20 Hitman (FR) 9 11 1 Mason, Hogarth, Ferguson & Done Paul Nicholls 156

21 Bravemansgame (FR) 10 11 0 Bryan Drew Paul Nicholls 155

22 Chantry House (IRE) 11 10 13 Mr John P. McManus Nicky Henderson 154

23 Galvin (IRE) 11 10 13 Mr R. A. Bartlett Gordon Elliott 154

24 Perceval Legallois (FR) 8 10 12 Mr John P. McManus Gavin Cromwell 153

25 Threeunderthrufive (IRE) 10 10 12 McNeill Family Paul Nicholls 153

26 Fakir d'Oudairies (FR) 10 10 11 Mr John P. McManus Joseph Patrick O'Brien 152

27 Iroko (FR) 7 10 11 Mr John P. McManus Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero 152

28 Kandoo Kid (FR) 9 10 11 Mr Michael Geoghegan Paul Nicholls 152

29 Trelawne (GB) 9 10 11 The Real Partnership Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls 152

30 Idas Boy (IRE) 11 10 10 Dozen Dreamers Richard Phillips 151

31 Intense Raffles (FR) 7 10 10 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede T. Gibney 151

32 Limerick Lace (IRE) 8 10 10 Mr John P. McManus Gavin Cromwell 151

33 Senior Chief (GB) 8 10 10 Lucky In Life Syndicate Henry de Bromhead 151

34 Broadway Boy (IRE) 7 10 9 Mr D. M. Proos Nigel Twiston-Davies 150

35 Coko Beach (FR) 10 10 9 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott 150

36 Farouk d'Alene (FR) 10 10 9 Mr Justin Carthy Gary Brown 150

37 Fil Dor (FR) 7 10 9 Robcour Gordon Elliott 150

38 French Dynamite (FR) 10 10 9 Robcour M. F. Morris 150

39 Mr Incredible (IRE) 9 10 9 Mr J. Manclark Sandy Thomson 150

40 Stay Away Fay (IRE) 8 10 9 Bell, Lyons, Hill Paul Nicholls 150

41 Zanahiyr (IRE) 8 10 9 Bective Stud Gordon Elliott 150

42 Pinkerton (IRE) 9 10 8 Mr P. L. Polly Noel Meade 149

43 Meetingofthewaters (IRE) 8 10 7 Mr John P. McManus W. P. Mullins 148

44 Minella Drama (IRE) 10 10 7 Green Day Racing Donald McCain 148

45 Velvet Elvis (IRE) 9 10 7 Mr D. Kierans Gavin Cromwell 148

46 Celebre d'Allen (FR) 13 10 6 Mr Allan Stennett Philip Hobbs & Johnson White 147

47 Fontaine Collonges (FR) 10 10 6 Mr P. Davies Venetia Williams 147

48 Horantzau d'Airy (FR) 8 10 6 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins 147

49 Hyland (FR) 8 10 6 The Ten From Seven Nicky Henderson 147

50 Monbeg Genius (IRE) 9 10 6 Martin Tedham & Wasdell Properties Ltd. Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill 147

51 Vanillier (FR) 10 10 6 Mrs H. M. Keaveney Gavin Cromwell 147

52 Minella Crooner (IRE) 9 10 5 KTDA Racing/Nick Courtney/Cillian Moran Gordon Elliott 146

53 Quick Wave (FR) 12 10 5 Ms Sharon Kinsella Venetia Williams 146

54 Three Card Brag (IRE) 8 10 5 Patrick & Scott Bryceland, McNeill Family Gordon Elliott 146

55 Twig (GB) 10 10 5 Mrs G. Morgan Ben Pauling 146

56 Duffle Coat (IRE) 8 10 4 Mr Ray Stokes Gordon Elliott 145

57 Roi Mage (FR) 13 10 4 Pryde/Van Der Hoeven/McGladery/Beaumont Patrick Griffin 145

58 Shakem Up'arry (IRE) 11 10 4 Mr Harry Redknapp Ben Pauling 145

59 Fantastic Lady (FR) 10 10 3 Mr E. R. Hanbury Nicky Henderson 144

60 Favori de Champdou (FR) 10 10 3 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott 144

61 Yeah Man (IRE) 8 10 3 John J. Brennan/Martin Hannan Gavin Cromwell 144

62 Chemical Energy (IRE) 9 10 2 Bective Stud Gordon Elliott 143

63 Macdermott (FR) 7 10 2 Gallagher Bloodstock Limited W. P. Mullins 143

64 Mister Coffey (FR) 10 10 2 Lady Bamford & Alice Bamford Nicky Henderson 143

65 Mr Vango (IRE) 9 10 2 Cracker and Smodge Partnership Sara Bradstock 143

66 Bronn (IRE) 8 10 1 Mr Simon Munir/Mr Isaac Souede T. Gibney 142

67 Desertmore House (IRE) 10 10 1 O. B. P. Carroll/Anthony Vaughan Martin Brassil 142

68 Malina Girl (IRE) 8 10 1 Mrs J. M. Russell Gavin Cromwell 142

69 Richmond Lake (IRE) 9 10 1 Hemmings Racing Donald McCain 142

70 La Renommee (FR) 7 10 0 Upton House Stud Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole 141

71 King Turgeon (FR) 7 9 13 Somerset Racing David Pipe 140

72 Stuzzikini (IRE) 7 9 13 VCS Versatile Coating Specialist/F Foran Gordon Elliott 140

73 Cruz Control (FR) 8 9 12 Mr F Green and Mr J Chinn Tom Lacey 139

74 Surrey Quest (IRE) 8 9 12 Surrey Racing (SQ) Toby Lawes 139

75 Apple Away (IRE) 8 9 11 Old Gold Racing 14 Lucinda Russell 138

76 Busselton (FR) 8 9 11 Friendship Partnership Joseph Patrick O'Brien 138

77 Gevrey (FR) 9 9 11 Denis Gallagher Racing Gordon Elliott 138

78 Spanish Harlem (FR) 7 9 11 Dr S. P. Fitzgerald W. P. Mullins 138

79 The Goffer (IRE) 8 9 10 Mr Allan Snow Gordon Elliott 137

80 Famous Bridge (IRE) 9 9 9 Hemmings Racing Nicky Richards 136

81 Copperhead (GB) 11 9 7 Mrs G. C. Pritchard Joe Tizzard 134

82 Escaria Ten (FR) 11 9 7 J B Property Investments (Midlands) Ltd Martin Keighley 134

83 Where It All Began (IRE) 9 9 7 McNeill Family/Patrick & Scott Bryceland Gordon Elliott 134

84 Git Maker (FR) 9 9 6 Sheep As A Lamb Syndicate Jamie Snowden 133

85 Gericault Roque (FR) 9 9 4 Prof. Caroline Tisdall and Bryan Drew David Pipe 131

86 Pats Fancy (IRE) 10 9 3 Hydes, McDermott, Spencer, Frobisher & Lee Rebecca Curtis 130

87 Placenet (FR) 8 9 3 Prof C Tisdall & G Thompson D. Cottin 130
 
The top ones on RPRs (for now) down to within 9lbs of the top:


Conflated​
11-2 ​
157 ​
182 ​
Stay Away Fay​
10-9 ​
150 ​
178 ​
Fantastic Lady​
10-3 ​
144 ​
178 ​
Broadway Boy​
10-9 ​
150 ​
177 ​
Shakem Up'arry​
10-4 ​
145 ​
177 ​
Royale Pagaille​
11-9 ​
164 ​
176 ​
L'Homme Presse​
11-8 ​
163 ​
176 ​
Capodanno​
11-2 ​
157 ​
176 ​
Bravemansgame​
11-0 ​
155 ​
176 ​
Coko Beach​
10-9 ​
150 ​
176 ​
Fontaine Collonges​
10-6 ​
147 ​
176 ​
Vanillier​
10-6 ​
147 ​
176 ​
Delta Work​
11-2 ​
157 ​
175 ​
Hitman​
11-1 ​
156 ​
175 ​
I Am Maximus​
11-12 ​
167 ​
174 ​
Gentlemansgame​
11-5 ​
160 ​
174 ​
Chantry House​
10-13 ​
154 ​
174 ​
Threeunderthrufive​
10-12 ​
153 ​
174 ​
Kandoo Kid​
10-11 ​
152 ​
174 ​
Monbeg Genius​
10-6 ​
147 ​
174 ​
Envoi Allen​
11-8 ​
163 ​
173 ​
Hewick​
11-7 ​
162 ​
173 ​
Minella Indo​
11-3 ​
158 ​
173 ​
Beauport​
11-1 ​
156 ​
173 ​
Galvin​
10-13 ​
154 ​
173 ​
Intense Raffles​
10-10 ​
151 ​
173 ​
Senior Chief​
10-10 ​
151 ​
173 ​
Minella Drama​
10-7 ​
148 ​
173 ​
 
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