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The 2025 King George VI Chase

Good course form is a positive.

Poor course form is a negative.

Lack of a run at the course clearly isn't a positive but neither can it be considered a negative. For all the multiple winners, I imagine you can find a matching course debut winner like Hewick or Tornado Flyer who both beat a previous winner of the race.
 
archie said:
Good course form is a positive.

Poor course form is a negative.

Lack of a run at the course clearly isn't a positive but neither can it be considered a negative. For all the multiple winners, I imagine you can find a matching course debut winner like Hewick or Tornado Flyer who both beat a previous winner of the race.
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So that narrows it down to 8 then!
 
Since 1972 13 horses - Pendil two, Captain Christy two, Silver Buck two, Wayward Lad three, Desert Orchid four, The Fellow two, One Man two, See More Business two, Kicking King two, Kauto Star five, Long Run two, Silviniaco Conti two and Clan Des Obeaux two - have won 32 King Georges between them.

Obviously debutants in this race can win it - and there was, of course, a first time for all of those above - but I think it emphasises the specialist nature of both Kempton Park and the race itself.

I also believe it's a race that doesn't bottom horses in the way the Cheltenham Gold Cup (IIRC only four multiple winners in that time frame) sometimes does.
 
Best horse wins the KG. Best horse on the day wins the Gold Cup. As Richard Burridge said at the time, for the GC to have the prestige it should have Dessie has to run it in. Probably doesn’t apply now but it did back then.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Slim would know better than me where the big money will go at the death, but all the superficial indications to me at the moment are that Gaelic Warrior goes off favourite.
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My historical indicators are probably all Stone Age nowadays, but I thought the public money would make Gaelic Warrior favourite and so far he still is.

But the big money on the machine at the death usually matters more, so it's never over until it's over.
 
Ian_Davies said:
My historical indicators are probably all Stone Age nowadays, but I thought the public money would make Gaelic Warrior favourite and so far he still is.

But the big money on the machine at the death usually matters more, so it's never over until it's over.
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Forget at the death. We haven't seen the 9am-10am cycle yet.
 
100% BOOK COMPARISON

--------------------------------------------------
| Race | Horse | % (100%) | Odds |
--------------------------------------------------
| John Durkan | Gaelic Warrior | 48.9% | 2.05 |
| John Durkan | Fact To File | 51.1% | 1.95 |
--------------------------------------------------
| King George | Gaelic Warrior | 55.3% | 1.81 |
| King George | Fact To File | 44.7% | 2.24 |
--------------------------------------------------

SWING (John Durkan → King George, 100% book)

------------------------------------------
| Horse | % Change |
------------------------------------------
| Gaelic Warrior | +6.4 pts |
| Fact To File | -6.4 pts |
------------------------------------------

While my market calculations are crude, they are done to illustrate the scale of the market shift for a winning margin of a neck at Punchestown. The John Durkan was a tactical affair, with Gaelic Warrior unquestionably getting the best of it. He was 12 lengths clear after seven fences without having to exert himself. He will have no such luxury in front today. So why is the market currently shifting 6.4pts in his favour?
 
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Gaelic Warrior looking very strong in the market.

I wasnt confident enough to take 3s or under about any of them, and gut feeling started to go against The Jukebox Man, the hanging left thing and looking back at the history of the race most winners had 10+ runs over fences, you want a proper hardened chaser and this is going to be his first serious race over fences.

Its been musical chairs for me with this race and when the music stopped I landed on Djelo, he was always in the back of my mind for a saver, and it just looked a race to have a small interest on a price. Hes hit or miss but pretty high level on a going day and good record right handed. I quite like his running style for the expected strong pace as well, could creep into it and finish strong.

Good luck to everyone and lets hope the race lives up to the billing.
 
Slim said:
100% BOOK COMPARISON

--------------------------------------------------
| Race | Horse | % (100%) | Odds |
--------------------------------------------------
| John Durkan | Gaelic Warrior | 48.9% | 2.05 |
| John Durkan | Fact To File | 51.1% | 1.95 |
--------------------------------------------------
| King George | Gaelic Warrior | 55.3% | 1.81 |
| King George | Fact To File | 44.7% | 2.24 |
--------------------------------------------------

SWING (John Durkan → King George, 100% book)

------------------------------------------
| Horse | % Change |
------------------------------------------
| Gaelic Warrior | +6.4 pts |
| Fact To File | -6.4 pts |
------------------------------------------

While my market calculations are crude, they are done to illustrate the scale of the market shift for a winning margin of a neck at Punchestown. The John Durkan was a tactical affair, with Gaelic Warrior unquestionably getting the best of it. He was 12 lengths clear after seven fences without having to exert himself. He will have no such luxury in front today. So why is the market currently shifting 6.4% in his favour?
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30 years ago, I would have said - and with a fair degree of confidence as if often worked out that way back then - that if The Sun, The Mirror, The Express and the industry trade paper's Spotlight all put up
the same horse it would be on loads of recreational multiple slips and would get shortened up.

But it's a different world now, newspaper circulations are a lot lower, hence what they put up is less influential, there are competing online tipsters, there's the day of race machinations of the online market, culminating in the big volume data models on the machine at the death.

Still early days - the market is almost as interesting as the race.
 
Are there not some doubts about the trip for Fact To File? Finished quite weakly at Leopardstown behind Galopin a few times. Grangeclare West beat him in the Hennessy and he would obviously thrash him in a Ryanair. Crazy to say about an RSA winner, but he does look to be best at 2m5.
 
archipenko said:
Crazy to say about an RSA winner
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I wouldn't be as rude as to say "crazy," but I can't have a horse who has won a Grade 1 over 3m round Cheltenham not being a stonewall stayer over 3m on a Park Course like Kempton.

Then there's the runs behind Galopin Des Champs who, for me and surely most, is an outstanding staying chaser on his day - no disgrace there.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
I wouldn't be as rude as to say "crazy," but I can't have a horse who has won over 3m round Cheltenham not being a stonewall stayer over 3m on a Park Course like Kempton.
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He hacked round there behind Sandor Clegane in a novice chase tho, this is going to be far hotter every step of the way. You can get away with it at a longer than optimal trip against the right opposition. I think the only reason he ran in the RSA was because JP backed it antepost, woudlve ran in the Golden Miller otherwise.
 
archipenko said:
He hacked round there behind Sandor Clegane in a novice chase tho, this is going to be far hotter every step of the way. You can get away with it at a longer than optimal trip against the right opposition. I think the only reason he ran in the RSA was because JP backed it antepost, woudlve ran in the Golden Miller otherwise.
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Fair enough, it's a game of opinions and I totally see where you're coming

Fact To File might possibly be at his very best at a more intermediate trip, but I think Cheltenham is so much more testing than Kempton Park that I'd say any horse who has won a Ryanair has prospects of staying the extra yardage in a King George.

We will find out soon enough!
 
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Ian_Davies said:
Fair enough, it's a game of opinions and I totally see where you're coming

Fact To File might possibly be at his very best at a more intermediate trip, but I think Cheltenham is so much more testing than Kempton Park that I'd say any horse who has won a Ryanair of staying the extra yardage in a King George.

We will find out soon enough!
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Its nitpicking, when youre talking about horses as good as Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File and trying to find reasons to take them on, most of the time youre clutching at straws.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Fair enough, it's a game of opinions and I totally see where you're coming

Fact To File might possibly be at his very best at a more intermediate trip, but I think Cheltenham is so much more testing than Kempton Park that I'd say any horse who has won a Ryanair has prospects of staying the extra yardage in a King George.

We will find out soon enough!
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Bottom lime is: he doesn't have GW'sversatility,imo.
 
Narratives like Fact To File doesn’t get 3m become intertwined in the discourse without anyone really knowing on what basis they exist. A potential Gold Cup horse ends up routing a field in a Ryanair, therefore he doesn’t stay 3m. The way this race will be run today, he’ll be switched off and held up off the pace. He won’t be beaten for stamina.
 
Len Madeiros said:
Is FtF just like Vautour? Didn’t quite get 3 miles. A stayer will get to him at the death.

Banbridge for me.
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I often cite Vautour as an example of why you need to be fully effective at 3m to win a King George.

Had Vautour done anything at 3m prior to getting touched off at Kempton?

Fact To File has won a 3m Grade 1 round stiffer Cheltenham and run one of the best Cheltenham Gold Cup winners in recent times to less than ten lengths over 3m round Leopardstown twice.

Much though it pains both of us to ever agree, I think Slim has it spot on - if Fact To File gets done today it won't be because he can't get 3m on a Park Course.
 

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