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The 2025 Longshot Thread

I was just coming on to write the same thing. I think he is 4lb lower than when 2nd (and didn't get a clear run) in this last year. Charlie Deutsch back on tomorrow. I think he is excellent value at the price.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Not with great confidence, but I’ve landed on the same 2. Backed Jumby, but not yet on Hickory (Sky not an option for me).
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Having just finished kicking myself for not following my own advice to follow 2nd season trainer Edward Smyth-Osborne this season and then watching his first runner for over 2 months win the 4.00 Ascot at 33/1, I'm also going to have a little investment on his next runner Noodle Mission 50/1 in the Victoria Cup. This was the stables flagbearer last season and improved through the spring and summer, before disappointing in last 2 runs, so if he continues improvement at the start of the new season, he could outrun these odds.
 
Desijo said:
I was just about to post this myself
You beat me to it 👍🏻
Looks a huge price.
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I'm sold on your reasoning, guys.
Can I offer up an e/w double with the next race?
Bareback Jack was rated 137 as a novice hurdler. Off for 3 1/2 years after injury. They persisted with his comeback and on his third race back he won off 117, in a manner that the RP described as 'comfortably', Timeform as 'easily'.
He now runs off 123. I know tomorrow's is a much warmer race, but he could still be well in, at 20/1.

Edit: took me quite a long time to post this, can't find 20s any more!
 
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Have backed Ki Woo 20/1 william hill and
My Bobby Dazzler 33/1 in 1.00 Haydock tomorrow.
They both look overpriced to me.
 
Robicheaux said:
Haydock 1300 tomorrow.
Looking atvthe form of this race last year. My Bobby Dazzler is handicapped to win this.
That 33/1 ( bet 365 ) cannot last long !
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It is lasted longer than I expected and still 28/1 with B365 as I type. 4 others put him in at 33/1, but he has now been cut across the board to 12's and 14's with all but B365.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York, 2.42 (WTF!) - Brave Empire 40/1, 5 places - third top on my figures and Marquand looks a positive booking.
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I thought that booking was interesting too. First run for Ivan Furtado and regardless of how he runs tomorrow, I think he is an interesting horse to keep an eye on. Did consider a small interest yesterday, when I think he was 50/1. Did back him this morning at 45/1, with Ladbrokes boost.

Talking of interesting jockey bookings, Joe Fanning is booked for Julie Camacho’s First Folio in that race (and Naqeeb in the race before and Obelix on Thursday). 9 of his 12 rides for the stable in the last 5 years have finished in the first 2 (4 winners). All 6 rides this season in first 2 (3 winners).
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
I thought that booking was interesting too. First run for Ivan Furtado and regardless of how he runs tomorrow, I think he is an interesting horse to keep an eye on. Did consider a small interest yesterday, when I think he was 50/1. Did back him this morning at 45/1, with Ladbrokes boost.

Talking of interesting jockey bookings, Joe Fanning is booked for Julie Camacho’s First Folio in that race (and Naqeeb in the race before and Obelix on Thursday). 9 of his 12 rides for the stable in the last 5 years have finished in the first 2 (4 winners). All 6 rides this season in first 2 (3 winners).
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2.10 York on Thursday. Like Brave Empire, Nazron runs for Ivan Furtado, having been bought out of Roger Varian stable. This one has had 4 runs for new connections. All OK and have got his mark down from 91 to 83. All 10 runs for Roger Varian over 5f, but new trainer has experimented with 6 and 7f as well as 2 goes at 5f. I think 5f is his thing and Silvestre De Sousa another interesting booking (albeit he isn’t having a very successful season so far). Anyway, he is 33/1 at the moment (though good chance he will go bigger).
 
Monddammej, York 2.10 Thursday.
Ran well in this 2 years ago, beaten 2 lengths by a subsequent G1 winner off 97.
Off 80 here. Will like the ground. Could be a lively longshot.
40s freely available.
 
In the first today I've gone for Midnight Jewel @ 22

Edit - backed in the win & 4 place market (of course, it came 5th)
 
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3.13 I've seen worse 25/1 shots than Rage Of Bamby. She's a CD winner who is open to more improvement this season. She has something to prove at this level, but the favourite and second favourite weren't scintillating last time out, so I'll take the leap of faith required that Bamby's trainer has her ready, and we'll see if she's improved. I'm hoping to get an excellent run for the money from up on the pace today.
 
Desert Orchid said:
York 2.10 - Max Mayhem 28/1, 4 places - co-third top on my figures and a bigger price than everything on the same figure and below. The price looks wrong. Not my main fancy, though.
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Out to 40s so today might not be the day but I've gone in again anyway, this time with the bog, and I've taken the double with Brave Empire. You never know...
 
York, 2.42 - Westerner 22/1, 4 places - has drifted to become a qualifier for the thread. The drift itself is a slight concern but not enough to put me off and it wouldn't be my main bet anyway. He hinted at a revival in fortunes last time under an exaggeratedly negative ride. He was only 7/2 for the valuable Old Rowley Cup in 2023 off 100 (90 here) and Marquand looks a big positive taking over from Hollie Doyle. He is 2/2 this season for the trainer.
 
Saturday, 2.35 - Lead Artist 20/1 (B365) - I think this price is seriously wrong. I'm not saying the horse will win but on my figures it only has Rosallion and Notable Speech, both of which make their seasonal debut, to overtake and should be no more than 5/1. It's had a run, albeit a moderate one, and Murphy takes over from the unfortunate Shoemark. Only B365 are going the price at the moment but it allows it to qualify for the thread. Not the main bet, though.
 
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