The 2025 Longshot Thread

Might And Power said:
1.08 Lingfield - Star Of Sussex 100/1 ( Generally ) 0.50pt EW

Poor form with only one place in thirteen starts, with an official rating of just 49 - down from an initial mark of 75. Was entitled to need his run last time out when last of eight here over 10 furlongs, his first outing for nine months. This is a truly dreadful contest and if you take out High Court Judge & Largo Bay then nothing else has shown much recently. Hard to see him winning but may run better than the odds suggest and a minimum stakes interest in the hope of a minor place.
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Pulled hard early on and held up until the turn for home, never put in the race but picked a few off in the straight ....... will need to be a very low grade race if he is to make the frame in the future.
 
viking said:
Sure Touch 3.15 Doncaster tomorrow
This fella may benefit from the step up in trip with stamina in his pedigree being by Yeats out of Liberthine and has slipped to a mark only 2lb above his Summer Plate win.
28/1 with William Hill (5 places)
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I agree. On my short list and I managed to get 33s (5 places).

(I'll probably be mob-handed in the race, though.)
 
Chel 1.15 - Victory Shout 100/1 - hurdling debutant in a decent race but on Flat ratings has only a couple of pounds to find on the admittedly proven fit and experienced odds-on favourite, but that price looks too generous. It might mean the bookies already have word that it will need the race but it doesn't cost much to find out if they're wrong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I planned to back it too. Hoping for a big drift [on Happygolucky] by tomorrow.
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Managed to get 66/1 to 4 places and 100/1 (3). Glad I held off but worried that there is no money for it. The stable won the Welsh National but there was a late flood of money for the winner. If this one doesn't shorten up we can probably write it off before it starts.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Managed to get 66/1 to 4 places and 100/1 (3). Glad I held off but worried that there is no money for it. The stable won the Welsh National but there was a late flood of money for the winner. If this one doesn't shorten up we can probably write it off before it starts.
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The drift is a cincern butv I've just gone in again at William hill.
Odds boosted to 117/1
Worth a go to small stakes👍🏻
 
Desijo said:
Docpickedme 3.15 Donny tomorrow 20 /1 bet 365
Finished 2nd last time out over c/d
Looks closely weighted with 1st and 3rd from that race, but is much bigger odds.
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A fortunate winner perhaps
Well backed Into 9/1
Thought 20/1 yesterday was too big👍🏻
 
Looking at Grange Walk, Leopardstown 4.05 on Saturday. Has come 2nd in this race previously + was in the act of running well in it again a year later, before coming down 2 out. Eleven, or 12lb lower now. Looks out of form at the moment hence the 50/1 available. Who knows, back in the race may rejuvenate him.
 
Walking On Air has been raised 4lbs, the same as the winner.

That suggests to me the handicapper thinks it would have won. Putting it up more than the winner would have attracted criticism.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Walking On Air has been raised 4lbs, the same as the winner.

That suggests to me the handicapper thinks it would have won. Putting it up more than the winner would have attracted criticism.
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I backed the winner, but it's a double whammy for connections.
A 4lbs rise and the likelihood of reduced odds next time out🤔
 
Respectful 3.28 Newcastle tomorrow
A former very useful 2 year old who has lost his way over the last couple of seasons.
If the switch of stables can bring about an upturn in form a big run could be forthcoming.
His new trainer Paul Midgley has reignited a few switchers to his stable in the past and hopefully this is another.
A speculative choice ,but at 33/1 may be worth a small investment.
 
Mack The Man 2.17 Musselburgh tomorrow 40/1 William hill
Lacks the scope of some of his rivals, but runs to a decent level of form and is very consistent.
Has won here at Musselburgh in the past and may grab a bit of place money at huge odds.
 
Robicheaux said:
Looking at Grange Walk, Leopardstown 4.05 on Saturday. Has come 2nd in this race previously + was in the act of running well in it again a year later, before coming down 2 out. Eleven, or 12lb lower now. Looks out of form at the moment hence the 50/1 available. Who knows, back in the race may rejuvenate him.
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If able to return to form at this track 50/1 looks a huge price.
Robicheaux and one other have mentioned this and he definitely deserves a second look with generous odds on offer.
 
Desijo said:
Respectful 3.28 Newcastle tomorrow
A former very useful 2 year old who has lost his way over the last couple of seasons.
If the switch of stables can bring about an upturn in form a big run could be forthcoming.
His new trainer Paul Midgley has reignited a few switchers to his stable in the past and hopefully this is another.
A speculative choice ,but at 33/1 may be worth a small investment.
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Ran a fair race to finish 5th.
Definitely has a race in him.
One to keep an eye on for the future.
 
Irish Gold Cup - Conflated 150/1 - he is a past winner of this and was only two or three lengths off the lead when unseating last year at the last. There's no Fastorslow this time round and Hewick would prefer better ground but he will be vulnerable to improvement from the second-season novices. Still, the price is an insult win, lose or draw.
 
Sunday, 1.40 - Eastern Legend 100/1 - improved through the Flat season to a rating of 98 which would translate to 140 over hurdles, the same figure I have for him for his hurdles form. He's also joint-top rated on RPRs with Bleu De Vassy (17/2). Obviously a lot of these are likely to make massive improvement on what we've seen but EL can improve too. The price just strikes me as wrong.
 
Sandown 3.07

Goshen 33/1, 4 pl
Lucky One 100/1, 4 places

The Moores love Sandown winners and I wouldn't be surprised if Goshen has been trained for this. He was a 160+ at his peak and runs off 138 now but goes notoriously well in deep ground. Arguably unproven at the trip but got an RPR of 157 in the Long Walk a couple of years ago, staying on late.

Lucky One was rated 143 earlier in his career (119 here and the girl takes off another 7lbs) and 129 last season in France. Jennie Candlish is a good trainer and if she can sweeten the old boy up again he could run well at huge odds.
 
Leo 4.05

A lot of gnashing of teeth going on here.

I identified Indiana Jones yesterday as a good 33/1 shot but held off until today to back it, hoping for a drift. I got caught up with other stuff and only just looked at the race, horrified to find it 14/1 tops and blue across the board. Fvck that for a game of sojers.

I'm probably biting off my nose to spite my face by not backing it and I'll take a bit more time before deciding if a bit of sickness insurance is in order.

Still, in the same race I was always going to back another longshot and managed to get 50/1 Lisnamult Lad when I was only expecting 25/1.

The swings and arrows of outrageous roundabouts...
 
Leo 2.25

Palamon 66/1, 5 places
Carrig Sam 150/1, 5 places

Carrig Sam is joint-third top on my figures and Palamon isn't far behind, has a good 5lb claimer and is an improving second-season novice.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sandown 3.07

Goshen 33/1, 4 pl
Lucky One 100/1, 4 places

The Moores love Sandown winners and I wouldn't be surprised if Goshen has been trained for this. He was a 160+ at his peak and runs off 138 now but goes notoriously well in deep ground. Arguably unproven at the trip but got an RPR of 157 in the Long Walk a couple of years ago, staying on late.

Lucky One was rated 143 earlier in his career (119 here and the girl takes off another 7lbs) and 129 last season in France. Jennie Candlish is a good trainer and if she can sweeten the old boy up again he could run well at huge odds.
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For me, they overdid the waiting tactics in that ground, especially Lucky One who passed a few from the home turn.

Still, the Goshen return covers a few of today's longshot bets.
 
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