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The 2025 Northumberland Plate (Handicap)

Grey said:
I always reckoned that a claimer riding a point and go sprinter was less of an issue than in a longer distance race where judgement of pace, getting a horse to settle and strength in a finish is needed on a tiring horse.
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That's a fair enough angle. I just think 7lbs at 2m is about seven lengths; at 5f it's less than two lengths, always assuming the jockey is competent. I think there's more margin for [forgiveness of] jockey error at the longer trip.
 
Grey said:
I always reckoned that a claimer riding a point and go sprinter was less of an issue than in a longer distance race where judgement of pace, getting a horse to settle and strength in a finish is needed on a tiring horse.
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The argument for preferring a claimer in a staying race makes sense, but so does this. So now I don’t know what to think. However, this particular claimer is doing well in staying races with her useful 7lb.
 
"The Duke" ran a cracking race for a 7lb claimer on Tapeta at Southwell in April.

He also really likes being referred to as "The Duke" on racing internet forums so he goes into this race on an adrenaline surge.

If Ms Langley can judge the fractions right and ride a canny race and keep out of trouble, "The Duke" wins by three going away.

It's as inevitable as a Maurice spreadsheet.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
The argument for preferring a claimer in a staying race makes sense, but so does this. So now I don’t know what to think. However, this particular claimer is doing well in staying races with her useful 7lb.
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Ignore both. They're both wrong. How well handicapped is the horse? That's all that matters.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I largely ignore them other than generally seeing them as a negative.
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Trainers seem to agree with you, as only 4 of the 20 have employed claimers for this one. One of them is Jamie Powell on Tribal Star for Ado McGuinness. Jamie of course, won, lost and won again in the Cesarewitch last season. He is a very forceful young jockey who still claims 3lb and is well worth it. This one has a great chance. Ran really well here on Good Friday on AW Finals day (that race was worth more than this one). Finished 5l in front of Duke of Oxford (3lb better off, plus Taryn Langley’s claim) that day despite getting in a bit of a battle 2 out when battering another claimer, on Humble Spark, out of the way. Humble Spark is in the consolation race, with Paul Mulrennan replacing Amie Waugh and is a major player there.

Spirit Mixer is also interesting. 2nd in this 3 years ago (the year Trueshan won under about 24st) when ridden by an 5lb claimer and off 97, races off 89 on Saturday and showed signs of a revival last time.
 
Unless there is a dastardly plan afoot to make a late change of jockey booking, it is a bit of a slap in the face for Hector Crouch who is the most successful rider for the yard this season, who can do the weight and who is engaged in the consolation race. Even to suggest a 7lbs claimer would be better than him is insulting to him. It is certainly enough to put me off and I'd wonder what the real target is.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Trainers seem to agree with you, as only 4 of the 20 have employed claimers for this one. One of them is Jamie Powell on Tribal Star for Ado McGuinness. Jamie of course, won, lost and won again in the Cesarewitch last season. He is a very forceful young jockey who still claims 3lb and is well worth it. This one has a great chance. Ran really well here on Good Friday on AW Finals day (that race was worth more than this one). Finished 5l in front of Duke of Oxford (3lb better off, plus Taryn Langley’s claim) that day despite getting in a bit of a battle 2 out when battering another claimer, on Humble Spark, out of the way. Humble Spark is in the consolation race, with Paul Mulrennan replacing Amie Waugh and is a major player there.

Spirit Mixer is also interesting. 2nd in this 3 years ago (the year Trueshan won under about 24st) when ridden by an 5lb claimer and off 97, races off 89 on Saturday and showed signs of a revival last time.
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I stopped reading at Ado McGuinness. He lost the man sourcing his horses. I wouldn't back anything out of his yard ever again
 
Desert Orchid said:
I largely ignore them other than generally seeing them as a negative.
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I actually think it's impossible to generalise - every fully-fledged jockey is of different calibre (and even the best can have a shocker), ditto every claimer and some horses go better for a claimer than others.

In a 5f handicap a 7lb claim is meant to be worth barely more than two lengths - that can easily be lost coming out the stalls, positioning, numerous things - sprinters aren't all "point and go" front runners.

Plenty can go wrong in a 2m handicap too, but, generally speaking, things don't happen quite so quickly and I've seen a decent claimer's claim swing it in favour of a straightforward ride quite a few times over a trip over the years.

Few sayings in racing are either completely right or completely wrong - best to treat each case individually and keep an open mind in my opinion.

I didn't know "The Duke" was going to be ridden by Ms Langley, but if she can keep out of bother, her 7lb is meant to be worth over six lengths and the horse did run ok for a claimer at Southwell.

We shall see.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
I actually think it's impossible to generalise - every fully-fledged jockey is of different calibre (and even the best can have a shocker), ditto every claimer and some horses go better for a claimer than others.

In a 5f handicap a 7lb claim is meant to be worth barely more than two lengths - that can easily be lost coming out the stalls, positioning, numerous things - sprinters aren't all "point and go" front runners.

Plenty can go wrong in a 2m handicap too, but, generally speaking, things don't happen quite so quickly and I've seen a decent claimer's claim swing it in favour of a straightforward ride quite a few times over the years.

Few sayings in racing are either completely right or completely wrong - best to treat each case individually and keep an open mind in my opinion.

I didn't know "The Duke" was going to be ridden by Ms Langley, but if she can keep out of bother, her 7lb is meant to be worth over six lengths and the horse did run ok for a claimer at Southwell.

We shall see.
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A horse needs to be well handicapped. The jockey is an after thought unless it's Ryan Moore (3).
 
Ian_Davies said:
I actually think it's impossible to generalise - every fully-fledged jockey is of different calibre (and even the best can have a shocker), ditto every claimer and some horses go better for a claimer than others.
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Of course we can generalise. It's why they have allowances and why few trainers use them in the serious races. Obviously some good judges will latch on to an apprentice who is outperforming their claim but I think the jury is out on Taryn Langley for the moment. If this proves to be her breakthrough moment then it will be brilliant for her and backers of the horse.
 
Well, obviously we CAN generalise - we can do what we like 😂 - but I think there are a lot of generalisations in racing that, for me, don't stand up to scrutiny.

Talking about a good or bad crop of 2yos or 3yos, for example - how can you put the same universal label on literally thousands of horses?

I take your point, but I still like to look at each case on its merits and ask is this a jockey upgrade, downgrade or no change?

Anyway, as previously stated, I didn't even know she was riding the horse when I first mentioned it and it's the no-brainer of the century that surely none of us ever backs a horse in a handicap unless we consider it, err - well handicapped! 😂 - and able to run to its best in the prevailing conditions (in this case 2m on Tapeta round Gosforth Park).
 
I don't have a problem with 'good crop'/'bad crop' stuff. It's often the figures that dictate the labels and if a Derby winner struggles to beat 120 when plenty of predecessors were upwards of 130 then it helps compare across generations.

Then, of course, some bandit from the bad crop emerges and proves the exception and makes generalisers like me look like fannies.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Well, obviously we CAN generalise - we can do what we like 😂 - but I think there are a lot of generalisations in racing that, for me, don't stand up to scrutiny.

Talking about a good or bad crop of 2yos or 3yos, for example - how can you put the same universal label on literally thousands of horses?

I take your point, but I still like to look at each case on its merits and ask is this a jockey upgrade, downgrade or no change?

Anyway, as previously stated, I didn't even know she was riding the horse when I first mentioned it and it's the no-brainer of the century that surely none of us ever backs a horse in a handicap unless we consider it, err - well handicapped! 😂 - and able to run to its best in the prevailing conditions (in this case 2m on Tapeta round Gosforth Park).
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You fair type a lot of words to say nothing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I don't have a problem with 'good crop'/'bad crop' stuff. It's often the figures that dictate the labels and if a Derby winner struggles to beat 120 when plenty of predecessors were upwards of 130 then it helps compare across generations.

Then, of course, some bandit from the bad crop emerges and proves the exception and makes generalisers like me look like fannies.
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I just think the word "generalisation" is a synonym for "lazy" a lot of the time - but I take your point!
 
Slim said:
I stopped reading at Ado McGuinness. He lost the man sourcing his horses. I wouldn't back anything out of his yard ever again
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Trainer form would be a concern and he has certainly struggled since the Shamrock Thoroughbred horses departed. However, I assume he hasn’t forgotten how to train and a big winner would be more important than ever. So, perversely, this increases my confidence in a big run tomorrow.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Trainer form would be a concern and he has certainly struggled since the Shamrock Thoroughbred horses departed. However, I assume he hasn’t forgotten how to train and a big winner would be more important than ever. So, perversely, this increases my confidence in a big run tomorrow.
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Stephen Thorne is a massive loss to him. He was sourcing the horses that won McGuiness so many big pots.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Trainer form would be a concern and he has certainly struggled since the Shamrock Thoroughbred horses departed. However, I assume he hasn’t forgotten how to train and a big winner would be more important than ever. So, perversely, this increases my confidence in a big run tomorrow.
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He's Hugh Taylors selection, so I hope you got a price, before he piped up !
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thorne is one of Timeform's 'Rising Star' trainers for this season.
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www.racingpost.com

Meet the rookie trainer taking Flat racing by storm with a syndicate army and live Royal Ascot hopes

Conor Fennelly talks to Stephen Thorne, who is going great guns less than a year into his career
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com

Racing Post published a good feature on him a few weeks ago. When he first started up on his own I followed him closely for a while. Had a lot of 2nd places to start with, but has kicked on now. His runners always seemed to be doing their best.
 

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