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The 2025 Northumberland Plate (Handicap)

I largely agree but it's still a valuable race worth studying and having a punt in. 90% of them will be trying.
 
Memorable performance from Trueshan since the AW switch, imo, but each to their own.

Everyone reacts to change differently, partly based on the nature of the change, I guess.

In my book, some changes are for the better, some are for change's sake and some actually make things worse.

I'm alright with this one - others aren't - game of opinions.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Tbf, it would be quicker to list the things that don't annoy me. 😂
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Imperial sovereign 66/1 William hill
A speculative selection.
Has recently joined Philip Kirkby from Karl Burke.
Ran an ok race first time up
Finished 9 lengths behind Illinois in the Queens Vase last season and If this step up in trip suits he could make a mockery of these odds.
More than likely to make me look a fool, but nothing ventured etc.
Good luck if you play.
 
Spirit Mixer 25/1 boosted to 28/1.
Stablemate of who's Glen.
My memory isn't very good but I think a few of us fancied this for a big race and it did finish 2nd in this race in 2022 getting 2 stone from trueshan.but he was 4 then and is 7 now.only 9th last year but was hampered.
 
Outsider said:
Spirit Mixer 25/1 boosted to 28/1.
Stablemate of who's Glen.
My memory isn't very good but I think a few of us fancied this for a big race and it did finish 2nd in this race in 2022 getting 2 stone from trueshan.but he was 4 then and is 7 now.only 9th last year but was hampered.
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Yes, it's because Murphy has opted for WG when I have SM rated slightly higher that I thought the former might win. I wasn't keen to take shortish odds until I had the BOG so I'll wait until tomorrow.
 
My figures and thoughts, compiled and written along with how the best odds (BO) stood on Thursday. I've now switched back to Who's Glen as the main bet with East India Dock to cover that and the Golden Rules bets.

1751103202575.png

Who’s Glen is maybe the right favourite for this race since McDonald is more of a go-to jockey than Hornby whose ride Spirit Mixer sits joint-top on my figures. Whos Glen is presumably thought likely to finish in front of Spirit Mixer but the wide draw is a concern. I’ve backed Golden Rules, the plunge horse in this race two years ago when hampered out of first place off 94. He’s obviously had issues but has been given a real chance off 4lbs lower. Rather than take a risk on Who’s Glen’s draw, I’ll also back East India Dock who probably just used Ascot last week to tee up this. I wouldn’t rule out a really big run from Onesmoothoperator but I’d want 20s to be interested in backing him. He went down under last autumn and duffed up some good local horses and ended up running well in Group races in Meydan. He’s the class horse in the race.
 
What a very unsatisfactory race.

Well done backers of Spirit Mixer. Joint-top on my ratings but I let the jockey put me off.
 
Robicheaux said:
I haven't backed the winner of this since the switch to AW.
You can safely draw a line through Dancing in Paris then.
Has a comfortable win over market leader Who's Glen last season + is over a stone better off. Good close 3rd to French Master last time out, who really franked the form last week.
Was going to wait till Thursday, but a jockey has been booked, + he's gone from 40s to 25s.
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Bollox. Curse continues. Win only as well 😒
 
Outsider said:
Spirit Mixer 25/1 boosted to 28/1.
Stablemate of who's Glen.
My memory isn't very good but I think a few of us fancied this for a big race and it did finish 2nd in this race in 2022 getting 2 stone from trueshan.but he was 4 then and is 7 now.only 9th last year but was hampered.
Click to expand...
Nice result and I also did the 2nd a/p 33/1 I followed Matt Brocklebank.
 
Going back to the issue of having claimers up, it was interesting to see Michael Bell had another runner today with a female 7lb claimer aboard (apart from Duke of Oxford). Mayday Malone won the 4.10 at Chester, over 7f, at 12/1 under Jay Mackay. This was a £20k race.

When I was skimming through Barry Hills Biography earlier, I noted a couple of stories about how he had more than one horse in a race sometimes and had a top jockey (in at least one case Lester Piggott) on the favourite/apparent first choice. At the same time he had a considerable sum bet on the other, who he knew was much better. He knew this would deter punters from the likely winner.

The lesson from this: Don't let jockey bookings put you off if you fancy one. That is maybe what they want you to be.
 

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