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The 2025 Tingle Creek Chase

Slim said:
Hard to know what to make of that.
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I've run the replays of both simultaneously from the point the leaders each crossed the first fence.

The novices were soon clear and at one point were over 30 lengths ahead. They were jumping the second Railway Fence when the Jonbon was leading his field over the first.

The tingle Creek field never really closed the gap after that.

It's possible the rain had got a bit more into the ground but it's also probably they didn't actually go that fast in the Tingle Creek.

Didn't something similar happen at Kempton the day Il Est Francais was much faster over the CD than the King George field?
 
Desert Orchid said:
Lulamba was five seconds faster over the CD, by the way.
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Slim said:
Hard to know what to make of that.
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On the face of it Lulamba is pretty special and Il Etait Temps was perhaps flattered by how easily he won, despite the eulogies being heaped on him. Be interesting to see how Timeform rate the two of them.

Ps: just come back to this - talk about teaching grandmother to suck eggs. Sorry guys :eek:
 
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barjon said:
On the face of it Lulamba is pretty special and Il Etait Temps was perhaps flattered by how easily he won, despite the eulogies being heaped on him. Be interesting to see how Timeform rate the two of them.

Ps: just come back to this - talk about teaching grandmother to suck eggs. Sorry guys :eek:
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Well, Lulamba, rated 153, has beaten rivals rated 147 and 146 respectively, 9.5 lengths. That's hardly 'pretty special in my book.

I'll be very surprised if Timeform doesn't have IET 20lbs higher.
 
I wouldn't read too much into the times.

Be Aware and Lump Sum are circa OR 150 horses who've run their races and been easily beaten by circa ten lengths by a horse getting advantageous weight for age.

The time tells you the Henry VIII was run at a decent pace, nothing more.

They didn't go nearly so quick in the Tingle Creek, but I don't think that flattered the winner, who stays 2m5f.

Jonbon has probably run to his mark, but the winner was far too good.

I don't think L'Eau Sud has run his race.

Many may passionately disagree with all this - that's fine, I really don't care, because that's as much as I can be bothered to think about the race tbh - these Grade 1s are analysed to death and time agonising over whether a 5/2 shot should be 11/4 or 9/4 is time that could be better spent on figuring where the value is in the December Gold Cup next week.
 
Skelton said after the race that L'Eau du Sud felt flat all the way through the race (having said beforehand that it ran three times in a short space of time last season without any problem), that it never felt as comfortable as at Cheltenham. He's the jockey and the expert but Jonbon was only using Cheltenham as a fitness exercise and L'EdS was given a free hit that day. The trainer also said the race was about finding out if the horse was a G1 horse or if its future was in handicaps. He might have got his answer and considering his final hurdling campaign consisted entirely of the Greatwood, Schweppes, County and Scottish Champion hurdles, none of which he actually won, maybe the better 2m-2m4f chasing handicaps will be more suitable but I can't see him being competitie in them off 163 on the basis of yesterday's run.

All that said, I could accept the L'EdS maybe wasn't at its 100% best and it looked to me like Boothill and Libberty Hunter were happy to race out the back and pick up appearance/minor prize money for a piece of work.

I am open to the possibility that Jonbon may be past his peak as well.

As for the novices, Alnilam blundered his chance into oblivion and Be Aware (OR 147) and Lump Sum (146) strike me as handicapping material at least for this season. It would have been more of a shock if Lulamba had been unable to beat them comfortably but at least the others made it a true-run race.
 
At the risk of upsetting smartie for wittering on about this, I’d be surprised if Jonbon ran up to his mark and aside from that the only thing that raises a question in relation to desert’s thoughts are the relative times. Not only was Lulamba five second faster than Il Etait Temps, but the time was easily the fastest of the day compared to average times. And that with him barely breaking out of a canter and only a tender four years old. In my book that’s special.
 
barjon said:
At the risk of upsetting smartie
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No one is holding a gun to my head, forcing me to read all this, so I've no right to be upset!

As stated, I do think the focus on races like this is so intense that, as punters the rewards for endlessly agonising over these contests are disproportionately low relative to the time spent discussing them.

But not everyone views racing the way I do, the academic discussion of the elite contests is the lifeblood of their passion for the game for many and that's fair enough.

It's of no more than passing interest to punters like me, who have long since moved on to thinking about today's and tomorrow's racing, but life would be dull if we all viewed the game through the same prism.

If you want to think Lulamba is anything other than a 4yo rising five, who's beaten a couple of 150 horses by an easy ten getting weight, that's fine by me - but while the clock can't lie, it can mislead and maybe it was simply the only chase run at any sort of decent tempo all day.

As for Jonbon, he's not getting any younger and I think that's as good as he is now.

But it's a game of opinions.

Right, to Cork!
 

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