The 2026 Derby

[Ian_Davies]

What this year's Derby told me once and for all was that not many Group 1-standard colts (or fillies, come to that) are bred to stay 1m4f any more.

Both of the Epsom Classic winners ran over the full Classic trip at Chester and the Blue Riband went to an uber boat in Lambourn.

It's also a fact that Andrew Cooper, CoC at Epsom, is always odds-on to overwater than underwater.

So I'm on the lookout for a colt with a proper middle-distance pedigree that looks the part.

And the one that fits the bill for me is the winner of the 1m2f Zetland Stakes, not a race with a history of producing Derby winners but that could change in years to come.

Pierre Bonnard is by Camelot out of the Nassau Stakes-winning New Approach mare Sultanina.

By a Derby winner out of a mare by a Derby winner - I've not seen a pedigree that screamed Derby winner to me like that since Australia (by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner).

And he looks an imposing beast with scope to improve the way he's bred to as well.

The form wouldn't be outstanding, but he won comfortably, he's a stone wall certainty to stay 1m4f and I haven't seen a better Derby prospect at this stage than him.

Benvenuto Cellini probably shows them more at home, but I wouldn't be quite as sure about him at 1m4f.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/epsom-derby/winner

 

[Ian_Davies]

Pierre Bonnard and Benvenuto Cellini were both confirmed entries today for the Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday.

Action (Aidan O'Brien)
Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O'Brien)
Cape Orator (Ralph Beckett)
Dorset (Aidan O'Brien)
Frescobaldi (Aidan O'Brien)
Hawk Mountain (Aidan O'Brien)
Item (Andrew Balding)
New Zealand (Aidan O'Brien)
Oxagon (John and Thady Gosden)
Piazza San Marco (Aidan O'Brien)
Pierre Bonnard (Aidan O'Brien)
Port Of Spain (Aidan O'Brien)
Rochfortbridge (Adrian Keatley)

Latest betting: 8-13 Benvenuto Cellini, 6 Hawk Mountain, Item, 7 Pierre Bonnard, 8 Oxagon, 10 Cape Orator, 12 Action, 20 bar.

 

[Barnestormer]

Pierre Bonnard and Benvenuto Cellini were both confirmed entries today for the Futurity at Doncaster on Saturday.

Action (Aidan O'Brien)
Benvenuto Cellini (Aidan O'Brien)
Cape Orator (Ralph Beckett)
Dorset (Aidan O'Brien)
Frescobaldi (Aidan O'Brien)
Hawk Mountain (Aidan O'Brien)
Item (Andrew Balding)
New Zealand (Aidan O'Brien)
Oxagon (John and Thady Gosden)
Piazza San Marco (Aidan O'Brien)
Pierre Bonnard (Aidan O'Brien)
Port Of Spain (Aidan O'Brien)
Rochfortbridge (Adrian Keatley)

Latest betting: 8-13 Benvenuto Cellini, 6 Hawk Mountain, Item, 7 Pierre Bonnard, 8 Oxagon, 10 Cape Orator, 12 Action, 20 bar.

AOB with only nine entries - he's slipping!!!

 

[edgt]

Heavy ground always a problem that may not be worth the effort.
Three of the five runners declared so 60% a solid B.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Two Group 1s for 2yo at 1m and 1m2f at Saint-Cloud on Sunday.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Hawk Mountain 12/1 with Unibet for The Derby after winning the Futurity.

As stated, two more 2yo Group 1s at Saint-Cloud on the morrow!

 

[Ian_Davies]

What this year's Derby told me once and for all was that not many Group 1-standard colts (or fillies, come to that) are bred to stay 1m4f any more.

Both of the Epsom Classic winners ran over the full Classic trip at Chester and the Blue Riband went to an uber boat in Lambourn.

It's also a fact that Andrew Cooper, CoC at Epsom, is always odds-on to overwater than underwater.

So I'm on the lookout for a colt with a proper middle-distance pedigree that looks the part.

And the one that fits the bill for me is the winner of the 1m2f Zetland Stakes, not a race with a history of producing Derby winners but that could change in years to come.

Pierre Bonnard is by Camelot out of the Nassau Stakes-winning New Approach mare Sultanina.

By a Derby winner out of a mare by a Derby winner - I've not seen a pedigree that screamed Derby winner to me like that since Australia (by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner).

And he looks an imposing beast with scope to improve the way he's bred to as well.

The form wouldn't be outstanding, but he won comfortably, he's a stone wall certainty to stay 1m4f and I haven't seen a better Derby prospect at this stage than him.

Benvenuto Cellini probably shows them more at home, but I wouldn't be quite as sure about him at 1m4f.

Ante-Post Betting: https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/epsom-derby/winner

24 hours on from Benvenuto Cellini getting stuck in the Town Moor mud, the magnificent physical specimen that is Pierre Bonnard powers home in the Group 1 Criterium De Saint-Cloud.

Next stop the Chester Vase, I'm hoping.

 

[Slim]

Impressive?

 

[Ian_Davies]

I thought so.

Much Softer ground today and I just wondered beforehand how well the race would pan out for a colt I reckon is ready for 1m4f already.

But they didn't go too slow, Soumillon always had him where I'd hoped he'd be (in the van with daylight to his outside) and though he momentarily looked in danger of being outpaced 2f out, he picked up and fairly powered clear at the death.

Not sure what the form is worth, but he looks everything I'd want to see in a potential Derby winner at this admittedly-early stage.

 

[NHughes]

William Hill still 12's just now

 

[Ian_Davies]

I took 16/1 after the Zetland, but I wouldn't lay 12s and I wouldn't blame anyone who took it.

Cracking middle distance pedigree and to my eye an imposing beast who should be even better at three.

 

[Slim]

I wonder where Montreal is. He looked s serious animal on both starts.

 

[NHughes]

William Hill buckled
8's top price now

 

[Ian_Davies]

Thus far, the three 2yo colts I have thought might develop into significant Derby contenders next season are: Pierre Bonnard, Hawk Mountain and
Raaheeb.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Aidan O'Brien tried to phone me last night - I didn't pick up because I have low tolerance for people who start every sentence with "Listen...." plus I was out for a curry in Slough with Charlotte Church at the time.

But I did text him back, as it was his annual plea for advice on which horses to target for which Classics.

"I want Pierre Bonnard for the dollars at Epsom, do NOT run him in the Dante at York as your record in that is marginally worse than Walsworth's with Windmill Girls in the 1970s. Go Ballysax and maybe Derrinstown (or whatever it's called now) then phone Andrew Cooper daily threatening to withdraw if he doesn't water the backside off the track. Hawk Mountain is your back up as I'm on that too."

Good to see him regurgitate this in today's Racing Post.

 

[luckyme]

FWIW................................
O'Brien will bid for a fourth Betfred Derby in a row this year, and a record-extending 12th victory overall, and highlighted his hopes for Group 1 juvenile winners Hawk Mountain (who took the Futurity Stakes) and Pierre Bonnard (Criterium de Saint-Cloud).

"Hawk Mountain is a lovely horse," he said. "He won the Futurity and could be a French Derby horse. He could be an Epsom Derby horse, too. We couldn't be happier with him.

"Pierre Bonnard, we think, is made for Epsom. He looks like he should get a mile and a half well. He's a big horse.

"We’ll start him in a trial and see, and we’ll probably do the same with Hawk Mountain, but Pierre Bonnard looks like a proper Epsom type and could come back to an Irish Derby after that, or something like that."

 

[Ian_Davies]

I might be prepared to accept Pierre Bonnard going for the Chester Vase, while Hawk Mountain goes to Leopardstown - I'm nice like that.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Go Ballysax and maybe Derrinstown (or whatever it's called now)

I sounds like those are the target races for Pierre Bonnard en route to Epsom.

 

[archipenko]

Happy to take Pierre Bonnard on, those flashy Camelots always come up short at Epsom. A lot of people have him down as a stayer, but he showed a lot of speed in that slow run Zetland, and I think 10f will be optimal for him. I think he will be effective at 12f in the right circumstances, but I dont think hes crying out for 12f at Epsom. His min and max SPS are on the high side.

Montreal looks similar to The Lion In Winter in the sense that on pedigree youd say 10-12f no problem, but with striding data now you dont make mistakes like that any more. Its not as clear cut as The Lion In Winter, but hes an 8-10f horse, not an Epsom horse. Same goes for Action, a Frankel half brother to last years winner Lambourn, but striding tells you hes a completely different type and wants nothing to do with 12f at Epsom.

Hawk Mountain was arguably the best of them at 2yo, and he would be a massive player but sounds like he could be one for the French Derby.

Ive been sweet on Benvenuto Cellini for this all along, think he is tailormade for the race. He has quite a freakish range in his striding (2.03–2.35 at Leopardstown). It shows that hes very comfortable going slow, but he also has a big gear change and can open up a pretty long stride, and thats exactly what you need at Epsom.

The end to end mile on heavy ground in the Futurity did not play this his strengths and he ran well considering, he has a higher level of form in the book than Pierre Bonnard, he looks the more likely to improve for the demands of the Derby, and hes over double the price.

I have savers on New Zealand and Wise Prince at big prices. New Zealand was a massive 2yo and ran deceptively well in some decent races. Wise Prince just looked to have a bit of quality about him. I wouldnt have had either on pedigree but striding offers plenty of hope, especially for New Zealand.

 

[Neiloc]

Happy to take Pierre Bonnard on, those flashy Camelots always come up short at Epsom. A lot of people have him down as a stayer, but he showed a lot of speed in that slow run Zetland, and I think 10f will be optimal for him. I think he will be effective at 12f in the right circumstances, but I dont think hes crying out for 12f at Epsom. His min and max SPS are on the high side.

Montreal looks similar to The Lion In Winter in the sense that on pedigree youd say 10-12f no problem, but with striding data now you dont make mistakes like that any more. Its not as clear cut as The Lion In Winter, but hes an 8-10f horse, not an Epsom horse. Same goes for Action, a Frankel half brother to last years winner Lambourn, but striding tells you hes a completely different type and wants nothing to do with 12f at Epsom.

Hawk Mountain was arguably the best of them at 2yo, and he would be a massive player but sounds like he could be one for the French Derby.

Ive been sweet on Benvenuto Cellini for this all along, think he is tailormade for the race. He has quite a freakish range in his striding (2.03–2.35 at Leopardstown). It shows that hes very comfortable going slow, but he also has a big gear change and can open up a pretty long stride, and thats exactly what you need at Epsom.

The end to end mile on heavy ground in the Futurity did not play this his strengths and he ran well considering, he has a higher level of form in the book than Pierre Bonnard, he looks the more likely to improve for the demands of the Derby, and hes over double the price.

I have savers on New Zealand and Wise Prince at big prices. New Zealand was a massive 2yo and ran deceptively well in some decent races. Wise Prince just looked to have a bit of quality about him. I wouldnt have had either on pedigree but striding offers plenty of hope, especially for New Ze....

Striding data, would you apply it to 0-60 handicappers or is it just for the top end?

 

[Ian_Davies]

Happy to take Pierre Bonnard on, those flashy Camelots always come up short at Epsom. A lot of people have him down as a stayer, but he showed a lot of speed in that slow run Zetland, and I think 10f will be optimal for him. I think he will be effective at 12f in the right circumstances, but I dont think hes crying out for 12f at Epsom.

This is what I get for breaking the habit of a lifetime and actually being nice to someone - they go and write something that could have been specifically designed to upset me!

Another cracking post imo, but I can't be having this extracted quote at all!

By a Derby winner, out of a dam who stayed 1m4f who was herself by a Derby winner, half brother to a beast that stayed 1m6f110yds - ok, the times suggest it wasn't the traditional end-of-season quagmire at Saint-Cloud, but it was in the easy side and Pierre Bonnard win going away, his second juvenile success over 1m2f!

I've been looking forward to copping the lot when he wins at Epsom all winter!

Day....RUINED!

Game of opinions, though - all great stuff.