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The 2026 Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle

barjon said:
I suppose trying to pick the winner of this is about as hazardous as trying to cross a busy road during the rush hour with your eyes shut. Nonetheless, I find it hard to think that the handicapper has got to the bottom of French Ship.
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He had :(
 
Robicheaux said:
DO might've been on it. He was decently handicapped, if they stopped f$%^ing about with him.. I looked, but had shown nothing in 2 runs this season, so left it alone.
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Nah, as I said earlier, I was eyeing it up for either the Schweppes or the Coral Cup:

I reckon Iberico Lord will have a higher profile race as its target, maybe the Schweppes or the Coral Cup.

I wonder if that means JP or Hendo (or both) have another one lined up for those races.
 
jinnyj said:
And in my tracker so of course I ignored it..... 😩 😩
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Same. Thought they were lining it up for a repeat win in the Betfair Hurdle or a handicap at Cheltenham. Like DO said, JP must have something lined up for the BH if they allowed IL to win that easy today at that price.
 
Do you really think it goes off that price if they expected anything like that ? I'd sugggest connections were as surprised as anyone that it's bounced back to form today.
 
Danny said:
Do you really think it goes off that price if they expected anything like that ? I'd sugggest connections were as surprised as anyone that it's bounced back to form today.
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That’s no longer how the markets work. It was 33/1 into 22/1. For all we know, the big layers could have made it 80/1 and laid plenty. Betting aside, it’s a disgustingly campaigned horse. You could hear it from the pundits after the race that even they, who normally fawn over ‘The Great Man’, are getting tired of it now too.
 
Back over hurdles and top rated on Timeform adjusted ratings, so the clues were there if we had been sharp enough to look.
 
barjon said:
if we had been sharp enough to look.
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Err, can I opt out of this self-flagellating hindsight fest please?

Backfitting the data after they've weighed in went out with flared trousers in the 70s.

If there's a core reason why I've kept the wolf from the door over the years with this betting malarkey it's that I don't think every winner can be found using what, for me, are long-term profitable methods.

Horses win unbacked by me every day - it's all part of the game - I just move on.
 
barjon said:
Back over hurdles and top rated on Timeform adjusted ratings, so the clues were there if we had been sharp enough to look.
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He was chucked in on his best form of last season so I'm not in the least surprised TF had it top. It just struck me as the type connections would have targeted at something 'bigger'. The Schweppes is worth more (at least it used to be) and the Coral Cup is around the same value hence I felt maybe they would have wanted to preserve or even lower its mark.

It reinforces the notion in my mind that they must feel they have better prospects for those races.
 
barjon said:
Back over hurdles and top rated on Timeform adjusted ratings, so the clues were there if we had been sharp enough to look.
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I love how ‘Timeform top rated’ becomes some sort of pointer after the race. How would you expect Timeform to rate a horse that’s won two big handicap pots off 136?

The point here is that ‘The Great Man’s’ campaigning of his horses is designed to confuse everyone so punters just give up. That way he can stop them and start them and no one really cares any more. The man is a complete cancer on transparency in racing.

And before anyone replies that he’s been a great benefactor to jump racing, ask yourself why he bankrolls so much of the game. It’s not charity, it’s control.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Err, can I opt out of this self-flagellating hindsight fest please?

Backfitting the data after they've weighed in went out with flared trousers in the 70s.

If there's a core reason why I've kept the wolf from the door over the years with this betting malarkey it's that I don't think every winner can be found using what, for me, are long-term profitable methods.

Horses win unbacked by me every day - it's all part of the game - I just move on.
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Sure - would you like me to edit with (except Ian) :) . I was merely trying to counter the sort of “out of the blue” flavour to comments. I dare say JP has his horses campaigned to suit him, but he’s not alone in that.
 
I still fail to see that this is anything different to a whole host of results week in week out where you'd say how the bloody hell has that won. Or any other horse that has bounced back from a bunch of bad runs with a win. Just because he's in the green and gold doesnt mean it was an organised plot. The race with hindsight probably isn't that strong, they look like they've gone too quick in front, kempton and decent ground might not have suited a few of them and a couple of the sexy recent winners who led the market have probably fell in the into handicappers grip.
 
barjon said:
Sure - would you like me to edit with (except Ian)
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I'm not gonna lie - I like this so much I'm tempted to say: "Yes please!"

I still haven't forgotten that 33/1 Newbury Chase winner you put up here last spring, I bet you didn't find that by doubting yourself and your methods every time you didn't bet the winner of a race.

We find what works for us and stick to it.
 
No, Ian, I don’t doubt what I do, but I do try to determine why my selection didn’t win and that includes looking at the winner to see if there was anything I may have missed that should have flagged up any serious danger to mine. In truth I wouldn’t have done this time without the thread because I was clearly wrong in thinking that the handicapper hadn’t yet bottomed French Ship.
 

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