The 2026 Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle

[The Fortune Teller]

DO might've been on it. He was decently handicapped, if they stopped f$%^ing about with him.. I looked, but had shown nothing in 2 runs this season, so left it alone.

I hope he was. I hope someone kept the faith.

 

[barjon]

I suppose trying to pick the winner of this is about as hazardous as trying to cross a busy road during the rush hour with your eyes shut. Nonetheless, I find it hard to think that the handicapper has got to the bottom of French Ship.

He had

 

[Ian_Davies]

Lanzarote's finest hour:

 

[Desert Orchid]

DO might've been on it. He was decently handicapped, if they stopped f$%^ing about with him.. I looked, but had shown nothing in 2 runs this season, so left it alone.

Nah, as I said earlier, I was eyeing it up for either the Schweppes or the Coral Cup:

I reckon Iberico Lord will have a higher profile race as its target, maybe the Schweppes or the Coral Cup.

I wonder if that means JP or Hendo (or both) have another one lined up for those races.

 

[jinnyj]

Also a former Betfair Hurdle and Greatwood Hurdle winner, easy in hindsight.

And in my tracker so of course I ignored it.....

 

[Slim]

Standard JP cheating horse. It's all so boring at this stage.

 

[pawras]

Re Iberico Lord , I have no regrets about generally staying away from races like that

 

[Ian_Davies]

My highlight of this thread was watching Richard Pitman make a trademark dash for glory and actually hold on at the death!

 

[nickf88]

And in my tracker so of course I ignored it.....

Same. Thought they were lining it up for a repeat win in the Betfair Hurdle or a handicap at Cheltenham. Like DO said, JP must have something lined up for the BH if they allowed IL to win that easy today at that price.

 

[Slim]

Same. Thought they were lining it up for a repeat win in the Betfair Hurdle or a handicap at Cheltenham. Like DO said, JP must have something lined up for the BH if they allowed IL to win that easy today at that price.

Overthinking that mob would give you an aneurysm. They do whatever they want.

 

[Danny]

Do you really think it goes off that price if they expected anything like that ? I'd sugggest connections were as surprised as anyone that it's bounced back to form today.

 

[Slim]

Do you really think it goes off that price if they expected anything like that ? I'd sugggest connections were as surprised as anyone that it's bounced back to form today.

That’s no longer how the markets work. It was 33/1 into 22/1. For all we know, the big layers could have made it 80/1 and laid plenty. Betting aside, it’s a disgustingly campaigned horse. You could hear it from the pundits after the race that even they, who normally fawn over ‘The Great Man’, are getting tired of it now too.

 

[barjon]

Back over hurdles and top rated on Timeform adjusted ratings, so the clues were there if we had been sharp enough to look.

 

[Ian_Davies]

if we had been sharp enough to look.

Err, can I opt out of this self-flagellating hindsight fest please?

Backfitting the data after they've weighed in went out with flared trousers in the 70s.

If there's a core reason why I've kept the wolf from the door over the years with this betting malarkey it's that I don't think every winner can be found using what, for me, are long-term profitable methods.

Horses win unbacked by me every day - it's all part of the game - I just move on.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Back over hurdles and top rated on Timeform adjusted ratings, so the clues were there if we had been sharp enough to look.

He was chucked in on his best form of last season so I'm not in the least surprised TF had it top. It just struck me as the type connections would have targeted at something 'bigger'. The Schweppes is worth more (at least it used to be) and the Coral Cup is around the same value hence I felt maybe they would have wanted to preserve or even lower its mark.

It reinforces the notion in my mind that they must feel they have better prospects for those races.

 

[Slim]

Back over hurdles and top rated on Timeform adjusted ratings, so the clues were there if we had been sharp enough to look.

I love how ‘Timeform top rated’ becomes some sort of pointer after the race. How would you expect Timeform to rate a horse that’s won two big handicap pots off 136?

The point here is that ‘The Great Man’s’ campaigning of his horses is designed to confuse everyone so punters just give up. That way he can stop them and start them and no one really cares any more. The man is a complete cancer on transparency in racing.

And before anyone replies that he’s been a great benefactor to jump racing, ask yourself why he bankrolls so much of the game. It’s not charity, it’s control.

 

[barjon]

Err, can I opt out of this self-flagellating hindsight fest please?

Backfitting the data after they've weighed in went out with flared trousers in the 70s.

If there's a core reason why I've kept the wolf from the door over the years with this betting malarkey it's that I don't think every winner can be found using what, for me, are long-term profitable methods.

Horses win unbacked by me every day - it's all part of the game - I just move on.

Sure - would you like me to edit with (except Ian) . I was merely trying to counter the sort of “out of the blue” flavour to comments. I dare say JP has his horses campaigned to suit him, but he’s not alone in that.

 

[Danny]

I still fail to see that this is anything different to a whole host of results week in week out where you'd say how the bloody hell has that won. Or any other horse that has bounced back from a bunch of bad runs with a win. Just because he's in the green and gold doesnt mean it was an organised plot. The race with hindsight probably isn't that strong, they look like they've gone too quick in front, kempton and decent ground might not have suited a few of them and a couple of the sexy recent winners who led the market have probably fell in the into handicappers grip.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Sure - would you like me to edit with (except Ian)

I'm not gonna lie - I like this so much I'm tempted to say: "Yes please!"

I still haven't forgotten that 33/1 Newbury Chase winner you put up here last spring, I bet you didn't find that by doubting yourself and your methods every time you didn't bet the winner of a race.

We find what works for us and stick to it.

 

[Slim]

I still fail to see that this is anything different to a whole host of results week in week out

Great Man Exhaustion Syndrome (GMES)

 

[barjon]

No, Ian, I don’t doubt what I do, but I do try to determine why my selection didn’t win and that includes looking at the winner to see if there was anything I may have missed that should have flagged up any serious danger to mine. In truth I wouldn’t have done this time without the thread because I was clearly wrong in thinking that the handicapper hadn’t yet bottomed French Ship.

 

[Desert Orchid]

The point here is that ‘The Great Man’s’ campaigning of his horses is designed to confuse everyone so punters just give up. That way he can stop them and start them and no one really cares any more. The man is a complete cancer on transparency in racing.

I know you feel strongly about this, Slim. I don't think I would have worded your last comment in the above quote quite as graphically but it does illustrate your strength of feeling.

IL was very much on the forefront of my thoughts for yesterday's race to begin with and JP certainly fooled me but it won't make me give up. I only have myself to blame for not backing it. It was a conscious decision on my part as a punter and I'm the one who's guilty of overthinking their intentions with the horse.

I did consider if they felt IL could still win after a rise in the weights for another big race if it won this and I thought it would have been too marginal so came to the conclusion that if they got it down another 3lbs I could look out that six-inch nail for a future race.

I bear no ill will towards JP for my getting the horse wrong yesterday. He beat me and I'm moving on.