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The 2026 William Hill Handicap Hurdle

When something is heavily drifting on the Exchange, they put a snowflake-looking thing next to it (or a flame when something is heavily shortening)
 
chaumi said:
Thanks Dan, great stuff.

Yeah, my wording was flawed (or left open to misinterpretation, let's say). What I should have said is 'prepared like a preparedy preparedy thing'.

That means since the Warwick bumper in 2023, and (I don't know how long Skelton has actually had her), maybe for a year or two before that.

The thing is...I believe Live Conti would have walked it...with over a stone more than Let It Rain.

And the fact that Skelton likely (along with the bookies and everyone else) believes that Conti will now win the County (before taking next year's Arkle), suggests he already knew he had Saturday's winner and could afford to let Conti stay home in the warm.

The only other likely interpretation I see is he thought there just wasn't quite enough time between Windsor and Newbury, and Windsor all along was actually the County prep. We'll see if Conti pops up in something between now and March.

Like most, thoughts are the current price for Saturday doesn't look attractive. But it will afterwards if she pisses it. What price then the Mares. And, barring those at the top of the market already mentioned, it doesn't look a particularly deep field.

There's a chance she could get the BF icy symbol on Saturday, given the chances on paper of the other two. That might make it look a little more attractive on the day.
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Live Conti OFS , tendon strain.
 
I'm not really getting it how a class 4 handicap at Ascot, in November is going to have a big bearing on this class 1 handicap here. Of the market leaders, Twyston Davis horse obviously had an impossible task trying to give 6lb to Old Grange Star. Third home that day, wasn't beaten far in a G2. He'd be my idea of the winner + I may back it on the day..Happy enough with the 66s on Faivoir ew.
 
Faivoir won't be a surprise if he goes first 5, the Ascot race mid Jan he didn't stay, the one before that may have not been soft enough.

But can we really see an 11 year old winning a race this valuable?

The Skelton yard will surely already know whether Faivoir can get anywhere close to Let It Rain. Yeah, on the face of it, the Ascot Nov race arguably doesn't cut it. I suspect they just didn't want Let It Rain to win that.
 
chaumi said:
Faivoir won't be a surprise if he goes first 5, the Ascot race mid Jan he didn't stay, the one before that may have not been soft enough.

But can we really see an 11 year old winning a race this valuable?

The Skelton yard will surely already know whether Faivoir can get anywhere close to Let It Rain. Yeah, on the face of it, the Ascot Nov race arguably doesn't cut it. I suspect they just didn't want Let It Rain to win that.
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No, but at the price I'm attempting some ew thievery. Reproduces his run in this race last season, or his Greatwood this. He should be in the frame again.
 
Robicheaux said:
I'm not really getting it how a class 4 handicap at Ascot, in November is going to have a big bearing on this class 1 handicap here. Of the market leaders, Twyston Davis horse obviously had an impossible task trying to give 6lb to Old Grange Star. Third home that day, wasn't beaten far in a G2. He'd be my idea of the winner + I may back it on the day..Happy enough with the 66s on Faivoir ew.
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Whilst I wouldn't disagree with you selection as ive said as much in my post above. The class 4 handicap perhaps is fair comment but then whats class got to do with it when it comes to handicapping ? That's perhaps a real question. From that class 4 All in you went on to win a Class 3 with plenty in hand thrashing Hot Fuss in the process who was 2nd in a class 1 before that race and won a class 2 after it. Fwiw Hot fuss is young and progressing and is usually handy he'll run a decent race again. But knocking the front pair on class is something that can be said but that All in you form, is solid enough regardless of what class it was labelled under.
 
I've done an initial trawl of the weights (not the most pleasant day up here and fvck all else to do) and at the moment am happy enough to have PL onside at a nice price.

What the race lacks in established quality, it might make up for - time will tell - in potential quality.

It's [for me at least] hard to believe it, but the current top weight Tutti Quanti (OR 138, 12-0) would have been 4lbs out of the handicap the year Richard Johnson got Rooster Booster beat by Geos in 2004.

In recent years marks in the low-mid-120s have made the cut, presumably a sign that Cheltenham now matters more for a lot of people, but I for one would not like to see this race diminish - which seems inevitable the way things are trending - and the prospect of ground somewhere between soft and heavy might not help much.

I can see this renewal being fairly attritional.

If I get the chance on Saturday I'll post my figures once my bets are on.
 
What I will venture to say for now is that All In You will probably confirm the form with those it has beaten recently but I suspect that Let It Rain will finish in front of it. I won't be backing LIR until Saturday and will probably settle for using her to cover my other bets in the race or maybe on the day as a whole.

But there's no shortage of juicy stuff among the others.
 
luckyme said:
I have gone for MILLDAM 50/1 e/w with powers
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That's actually one of the outsiders that caught my eye although I was probably holding out hope that the price somewhat holds up until the day and I could pick up a price about place only and maybe even something like a first 5 - 7 finish . The case for him I suppose is fairly simple in just looking at what he achieved at Windsor where everything seemed to be happening a stride too quick for him but despite being niggled and urged from start to finish he kept on gamely for 5th and wasn't beaten all that far. He has a win to his name on heavy ground at Haddock from only a couple of pounds below what he is now. Snowden who's a fairly shrewd trainer with the ammunition he has deploy Isabel Ryder for the first time on himto claim 5lbs. As I've said previously I haven't really got my finger on the pulse these days and I'm unsure of who she is but she is operating a 16% strike rate this season with plenty of placed efforts so I'm presuming she's fairly decent. The claim puts him 8lb better off for the six lengths with Hot fuss and he's 4 times the price. I think the lengths beaten are a fair reflection as the way the race was run nothing was really left to the imagination. I'd really struggle to think that at least 1 or 2 of the lesser exposed wouldn't beat him and probably a couple more but I'd think he'd be in the sake up for minor honours.

I'm not really sure how all these place markets work with the bookies as it wasn't something I looked at when I used to punt but I'd imagine at you'd get a similar price to him finishing in the first 5 or 6 as what you would as the Skelton horse winning which to me might be the better bet.

Well you can strike all that as Lucky me moves markets the things halved in price now. Blink and you miss em folks.
 

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