The 32Red Winter Festival Kempton Park Wed 26 Dec & Thurs 27 Dec 2018

King George VI Chase

Looking forward to this one, quite the mouthwatering clash.

Native River
Might Bite
Bristol de Mai
Thistlecrack
Politologue
Waiting Patiently

to name just 6.

No idea what wins it - but I'm veering towards Thistlecrack & Native River as my two against the field.
 
simmo said:
Looking forward to this one, quite the mouthwatering clash.

Native River
Might Bite
Bristol de Mai
Thistlecrack
Politologue
Waiting Patiently

to name just 6.

No idea what wins it - but I'm veering towards Thistlecrack & Native River as my two against the field.
Click to expand...

Me neither Simmo but hoping to "crack the code" of the race:whistle:
 
3.05 – 32Red King George VI Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m ITV

15/16 – Had won a Grade One chase before
15/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Finished in the top three last time out
14/16 – Placed favourites
14/16 – French (10) or Irish bred (4)
14/16 – Had won over 3m or further (fences) before
13/16 – Officially rated 169 or higher
12/16 – Aged 8 or younger
11/16 – Winning favourites
11/16 – Won last time out
10/16 – Had won a race over fences at Kempton before
9/16 – Ran in the Betfair Chase (Haydock) last time out
8/16 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
7/16 – Won by a previous winner of the race
7/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (9 times in all)
5/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/16 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/16 – Ridden by Noel Fehily
2/16 – Won by an Irish-based yard (only 3 in the last 32 runnings)

Colin Tizzard and Nicky Henderson have trained 5 of the last 8 winners (2 Tizzard, 3 Henderson)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 7/2.

from the geegeez site.
 
He’s got to run an extra 3f than he has before admittedly but he spent his novice chase season campaigned over 20/21f until switched back to the minimum, falling when looking likely to win in the Maghull.

To quote connections; a flat track is what he needs and away from Cheltenham (which he clearly doesn’t like) he’s been beaten by three horses; 2nd to Barters Hill in the Challow on his first completed start in the UK, 1.25L 2nd To Waiting Patiently when giving 3lb and a 4L beating by Altior in the Game Spirit.

Most of those near the top of the market have questions to answer but I’d be fairly certain he’ll like the course, any going the weather throws up and will be able to lie up with any pace the likes of Might Bite et al decide to inject.

He’ll be in unknown territory as they enter the home straight but the trainer and jockey think this track/trip will be perfect and he’s looked strong at the end of his races over the intermediate trip so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt because as much as I love Might Bite, Politilogue and Waiting Patiently are the two for me who could prove the next stars but Jefferson’s horse has it to do after so long off.
 
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Agree with most of that,Lee.
This is what PN had to say after his Melling Chase win, last season:
"Politologue jumped and stayed on really strongly. He wanted two and a half. He blew his brains at Cheltenham, so we had the hood on today and I think a flat track suits him".
That Aintree win came on proper soft ground too, and the horse ran his p.b. T/S figure, which should dispel any doubts of it not being a proper test.
 
He also outstayed Vintage Clouds over an extended 2m5f in soft ground at Haydock (though what the exact distance would have been is anybody's guess) on his first run over fences and while Vintage Clouds hasn't always been the most resolute in a battle, what he does do is stay. That's not the sign of a horse who's short of stamina IMO.

Regardless, these sort of conundrums are why (along with Desrt Orchid) the King George will always be the best staying chase of the year for me, where you have the established Gold Cup horses facing off against up and coming types that have been thus far plying their trade between 2m & 2m4f.

Can't wait.
 
i think in most king george years a horse like politologue would have to actually improve for the extra distance rather than just stay

not sure this year though with question marks hanging over all the other principle horses in the race

it's a race i usually love betting on but i'm finding it quite the puzzle this year
 
The issue for me with any of them is price. Really 11/2 Politilogue for the King George ? Bristol De mai 7/1 away from Haydock again .....really ? Native River and Might Bite set a very high standard imo the Gold Cup was a bloody solid one. However do they represent value MB off the back of a bad performance last time, well out of all of them I'd except that as an excuse first time up and Haydock is not everyone's cup of tea so of all the top lot he has the least to answer but what 4/1 is only fair at best. Native River hard to forget his Feltham flop here I love the horse but this is tough again his price is fair ish. Waiting Patiently brethtakingly brilliant here and at Ascot will he stay and is he capable first time up? possibly but 5/1 ?

Which ever one of those you decide to go with there is a big question to be answered. Yes we think those speedier types will stay, year after year we'll think they'll stay and there have been better types trying to make the leap from shorter trips, didn't the likes of Azertioup and Master minded try it amongst various others. And the one that actually made the transition was the most bloody unlikely one of the lot in old Edredon !

However we're all willing to plunge into the unknown with the more sexy types at short prices and we're prepared to take a chance at ridiculously short prices in a very competitive event. Why then is it that we're not so keen to take a chance on something that may well require less of a leap.

Coneygree 33/1. O.k he pulled up twice last season and had various problems what if we were to take a chance that those problems maybe had been sorted what then ? We have a proven Top Class 3 miler who won his Feltham by a distance won a very decent Gold cup as a novice and has only had 10 chase starts at the age of 11 not exactly a lot of miles on the clock. In fairness his prep at Cheltenham 6 lengths behind Rock the Kasbah giving away a stone as Prep runs go after an absence ...I'd suggest that's not a bloody bad one. If Reet wants to say throw Politilogues best TopSpeed figure out there in the way of making a case he ran TS of 154 at his absolute best peaked for spring festivals and over a trip of 2m4f. Coneygree on comeback has run 151, not a bad standard, they've gone a decent clip and its been a fair test.

Will his health hold together one more time ? That's a question no bigger than some that hang over the heads of the market leaders but you could probably back Coneygree to frame at bigger than you can one of those to win.

Always seeing the Aardvark in the room.
 
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Good write up Danny.

Regarding Politologue's class - or possible lack of it - there are only three horses in the race with a higher OR (presuming Altior swerves it as expected) and of those: -

- How likely is Native River to prove his Kauto Star run wasn't a dislike of the sharp, right handed track?. Admittedly that was 3 years ago but I just don't see him acting around Kempton as well as an Aintree or Newbury...

- Might Bite looked seriously good in his Kauto Star before falling and proved in the RSA and Gold Cup just how talented he is but it was Royal Vacation who would have chased him home in the Kauto Star and he'll need to put in a better performance than he did here 12 months ago to beat Politologue even over 3m, notwithstanding the fact he needs to put Haydock behind him.

- Waiting Patiently has similar stamina doubts to Politologue but also has the added concern of coming here off the back of 11 months on the sidelines and on their novice chase form they're pretty equally matched.
 
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I'd trust that form Euro its solid enough but whichever way you look at an Official rating it is earned under a different set of circumstances i.e trip to what he faces if he doesn't stay then he's officially rated crap at 3 mile but 150, 160 or whatever at 2m4f.

I actually like politilogue and I can see the case why people like him. 11/2 that he stays the trip is one thing, 11/2 that he's the best stayer in the country is a different matter.

I could say what most of you realistically know that its tight not one of the first few in the betting would be a huge surprise and realistically its one to probably watch and savour rather than have a bet in. Me myself I just love having a pop in the big races and backing some sort of opinion even though its not the best thing to do regards making money at the game, we're probably all a little guilty of that. If anyone could nail there colours to the mast and say this is a certainty and this is why, in this King George I'd be surprised most will admit its wide open. Personally I'd love to see Ruth Jefferson pull it off with Waiting Patiently it would be some training feat and I always loved the stable under her Father. Can't see it myself really if I had to pick an outright winner it'd probably be Might bite. I also think the Shuffler and Tea for two will probably run with credit again. Best bet as I said I can probably see the value in giving throwing a few sheckels at one last hurrah for Coney even though it would grieve me to listen to the Bradstocks.
 
This is the sort of race which is tough at the current prices given how close we are to Boxing Day. I much prefer less competitive events when it comes to shall we say day of race markets. That said I like to take a view ap and I do have Thistlecrack as the 3rd leg of a treble (Def Red and Altior from TC day) so have a little wiggle room. I've put BDM in a double with Road to Respect.
 
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