The 32Red Winter Festival Kempton Park Wed 26 Dec & Thurs 27 Dec 2018

The only horse we don't know enough about is Waiting Patiently.

Hard to work out what his form is worth but he has a tremendous turn of foot for a 3 mile chaser something the rest lack.

If he turns up without a run either they are stone mad or extremely confident. Like Cheltenham it's a waste of space running in the KG if not 110%

Another mystery is why does Bristol De Mai go from world beater to a donkey in such a short space of time.

I don't buy this "his beloved Haydock" I would put it down to immaturity and expect him to go very close.
 
wilsonl said:
We don’t whether he is a 3 mile chaser yet though Fist
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Yep!! however Cue Card went some gallop in the Betfair he had Frost and Jacob in panic mode before the home turn while WP was still pulling for his head and raring to go at the second last.

There is a slight worry as he wandered right on the run in but he still found plenty in what was holding ground.

Kempton's 3 miles is as tough as any to get because it's an extremely fast course and speed saps stamina as much as stamina saps speed

Winners like One Man Silver Buck Wayward Lad Kauto Star's and Long Run's all were great travelers, had speed to burn and on song were near impossible to beat in a finish

Waiting Patiently is very similar in type unlike the others and if he gets 3 miles I reckon this is all over before it starts
 
Diamond Geezer said:
A horse hasn't won the KG on its seasonal debut since just after the second world war.
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How many with realistic prospects of winning the race have tried, though?

WP has, as you reported earlier, had a racecourse gallop and that can be as important as a jog around against poor opposition in a scheduled race. On top of that, training and conditioning methods are evolving all the time so it's only a matter of time before a potential winner becomes an actual winner on its seasonal debut.

It probably won't happen this season but it will happen.
 
Desert Orchid said:
How many with realistic prospects of winning the race have tried, though?

.
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That comes down again to what we were talking about the other day with stats Des for the people who understand that there are lie's,damn lies and then Statistics or if you even take the Mick Mcarthy view of "Them stats are minging". Its not even a case of how many have tried ? That gives you one number, once you have that number you could say well how many of them who have tried were viable candidates? If there were 20 to try and they all went off at 100/1 then 20 losers would not be out of the oridnary. Well maybe 20 of them were all odds on and got beat well then you're more than likely onto something. To find anything meaningful out of things like this you need huge sample groups and to add in all the variables.

Does Waiting Patiently have the talent or the class however you like to phrase it?.I certainly think so.

Will Waiting patiently see out a strongly run 3 miles?.I'm not sure at all one way or the other so 50% chance I'd say.

Will the race be run to suit ? Most definitely although it usually pays to be front rank in a KG both Native river and BDM and even Might Bite to some degree might want to be forcing the issue so if we we're going to play into WP's hands I think sitting off a break neck pace as he did at Ascot is as good as the team can hope for.

Is he better then Might Bite or Native river ? At Kempton ? Definitely, maybe :lol: If he's going to get Native river especially its easier to do him here.

I'd love to see him do it personally but think his price is about right.
 
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Regarding Waiting Patiently not having had a prep run this season, this is nothing unusual for this horse.
Past 2 years he made his seasonal reappearance after 288 and 296 day breaks and won both times easily. The KG will be a 312 day break.
Fully appreciate the KG is a completely different level of test than his previous seasonal debuts, but the horse doesn't know any different. He's used to this.
 
Danny said:
Will the race be run to suit ? Most definitely although it usually pays to be front rank in a KG both Native river and BDM and even Might Bite to some degree might want to be forcing the issue so if we we're going to play into WP's hands I think sitting off a break neck pace as he did at Ascot is as good as the team can hope for..
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I really believe that too many of the market leaders want to and almost need to lead.
Hard to argue that all 4 of BDM, Might Bite, Native River and Thistlecrack (to a degree) are better when they lead and dictate from the front.
While Kempton isn't renowned as a track for hold up horses, I think this year there's a good chance a lot of these could cut each others throats at the head of affairs.
As you say Danny, if WP can sit just off this pace and make his move late on I think he has a great chance. (Of Course assuming he stays the trip)
 
That's a decent point Shane more relevant perhaps to Might Bite though.

Might Bite won on seasonal reappearance last year but lost this year. Its the point you make about completely different sort of tests though.

Going off memory but didn't he beat something like Label des Obeaux last year at Sandown ? Now thats seen as a good prep but finishing beaten in a Betfair chase is seen as a bad one. I'm trying to figure if Label Des Obeaux would have rounded the turn by the time they crossed the line in the Betfair. You see the point ? Thats why I'm not overly concerned for Might Bite on that basis. However having said that he wasn't really at his best on Boxing day and his best run By far was actually in the Gold Cup, these patterns develop over time but he may just turn out to be a horse who is simply better in the Spring. Some may argue he was going to win his Feltham very impressivey which is fair enough although he wasn't beating much. I'd argue though if not for the antics he showed up the Hill in the RSA that was by far his best performance of that campaign so maybe whatever he does on Boxing day you could expect better at the Spring Festivals.

Was replying to previous post Shane hadn't seen your second one.
 
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If horses can win the Derby first time out there's no reason they can't win the King George first time out. They just have to be good enough.
 
The only horses I can think of who won the Derby first time out recently were Shaamit and Lammtarra. Both of those horses won poor renewals and showed improved form in races after Epsom (which is unusual.) WP is up against established high class chasers. It's a totally different ask imo.
 
I posted this stuff at the time (last Feb) but have no idea where it would be so I'm copying it from my files:

The big race was compelling yet very unsatisfactory. They looked to go far too fast early on – Speredek, who led the field by a long way over shorter at Sandown, couldn’t get near the lead until after about a mile by which time Frost appeared to realise she’d gone too fast on Frodon and got a breather into him – so Cue Card deserves loads of credit for staying up there most of the way and getting to the front until collared late by Waiting Patiently. You can imagine how annoying it is for me to think I was on him ante-post at 25/1 for the Mackeson off just 150.

I did some of my neanderthal sectional times on the races and came up with the following:

Here are the results of a quick time comparison exercise with the two earlier chases over 3m, the Reynoldstown won by Black Corton and the £100k handicap won by Regal Encore:

For the two earlier races I timed them from jumping the first fence of the race to the last in the home straight. The camera angle switched preventing me from taking a time at the winning post on the first circuit.

Black Corton - 164sec
Tenor Nivernais - 157sec

I can't do decimal points on-screen so there is a margin of error but 7 seconds is at least 26 lengths. So Tenor Nivernais was all of that in front of Black Corton at that point. The chances are he was going too fast and BC was getting a soft lead.

From the last fence on the first circuit to the winning post:

Black Corton - 208sec
Regal Encore* - 209sec

Black Corton pulled back nearly four lengths overall through that stage but Regal Encore beat him by six seconds overall.

Comparing these two races with the big race, timing it from the first fence in the shorter race to the last in the home straight:

Black Corton - 117 sec
Tenor Nivernais - 113 sec
Leader in Betfair - 108 sec

Those are very big margins.

From the last fence on the first circuit to the winning post:

Black Corton - 208sec
Regal Encore* - 209sec
Leader in Ascot Chase - 208sec


So Black Corton, despite running in a 3f longer race has completed the final circuit in the same time as the leader at the various stages of the Ascot Chase. He was basically keeping pace with Cue Card and then with Waiting Patiently, but of course WP was running slightly faster as he was coming from behind.

From six out to the line:

Black Corton - 86 sec
Regal Encore* - 89 sec
Cue Card - 89.5s
Waiting Patiently - 88 sec

(* this is the time taken for the leader at these stages. Black Corton was in front, RE & WP came from a little further back.)


Clearly Cue Card was slowing from six out, more so from two out.

It looks like the times are confirming what the naked eye saw, namely that Frost got a breather into BC from 8 out to 6 out and really got the horse running from three out, covering that last section in 54s. Regal Encore took a little under 55s and Waiting Patiently took 57s, so Waiting Patiently was slowing down more than the winners of the other two races both run over 3f further.

The pace was clearly over-fast in WP's race and he has benefited from a hold-up ride.


I wrote most of the foregoing on Saturday and Sunday. On Wednesday I had a closer look at the times and they tell a slightly different story. Rating the times via Black Corton doesn’t work as it makes the others too fast. Rating them via Regal Encore (or Tenor Nivernais’s pace, to be more accurate) does work out. It makes BC slow overall, but that looks right given the way the race panned out. Frost just got to set an even slower pace than I’d thought. It puts Waiting Patiently on 172 and Cue Card on 170. Waiting Patiently, who the jockey claims was idling, will get a ‘+p’ and Cue Card a ‘++’ for setting the over-fast pace. Frodon has run below form after chasing the early pace. Top Notch was never convincing through the race with his jumping but I’m sure Hendo will have him spot on for Cheltenham.

Simon Rowlands has analysed the race on his Sectional Spotlight at the ATR site:

http://cheltenham.attheraces.com/sectional-spotlight/sectional-spotlight-ryanair-chase



(I'm not sure that link will still work - I haven't checked it)

If my figures are correct Waiting Patiently is clearly top class but his stamina remains a question. He was clearly finishing more slowly than the others despite racing over shorter so was he just being less affected by the pace for having been held up or was he indeed idling?
 
Euronymous said:
The only horses I can think of who won the Derby first time out recently were Shaamit and Lammtarra. Both of those horses won poor renewals and showed improved form in races after Epsom (which is unusual.) WP is up against established high class chasers. It's a totally different ask imo.
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High class, yes, but not without their own question marks.
 
Does anyone actually think Native River will turn up. The price says no....I am assuming he only ran in the Betfair to try for the million and won't go to Kempton?

I argued he had the speed to win the Betfair which he didn't for whatever reason.

Backing against him for me would go against the grain...hard game this
 
Im with Danny.its Coneygree for me.
I just cant back mite bite after his last run,i think think the gold cup left its mark,just my opinion. I think Thistlecrack is my 2nd choice.
Travelled well in the betfair but kept j7mping slowly.
Should be a good forecast.??
Cracking race in prospect.
 
Thistlecrack will surely jump better round Kempton. Those stiff fences at Haydock were a very tough ask after so long off.

Native River is a backable price now. He's so much better now than he was when T42 beat him in the Feltham.

Might Bite is solid, most likely winner.

BDM is about the right price. He has to get into a jumping rhythm and I think that's questionable on the track.

Politologue and WP I cannot have at their respective odds.
 
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Mr Whipped a NR on Boxing Day, knocked himself in his box. (Kauto Star Novices Chase)
 
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Outsider said:
Im with Danny.its Coneygree for me.
I just cant back mite bite after his last run,i think think the gold cup left its mark,just my opinion. I think Thistlecrack is my 2nd choice.
Travelled well in the betfair but kept j7mping slowly.
Should be a good forecast.??
Cracking race in prospect.
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Bizarre you wouldn’t back The Biter because of his last run, but will back Coneygree despite his last five.

I fully expect Might Bite to be back to his best at Kempton, and confidence is high. I just hope he is strongly-opposed in the betting on Tuesday.
 
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