The 32Red Winter Festival Kempton Park Wed 26 Dec & Thurs 27 Dec 2018

I have the Biter for the price of a small car after including him in nearly every double and treble through the late summer / early Autumn. Thought Haydock was bitterly disappointing, would clearly love him to win, but confidence is anything but high!
 
Yep, absolute cracker
Love Santini but won't be able to back him at the price, on the ground
Bags Groove is a fantastic jumper, Worlds End looked impressive at Cheltneham, Topofthegame performed miracles to get as close as he did last time & La Bague Au Roi must have a shout getting the weight. Probably be a no bet race for me...
 
Hopefully the ground stays as described.
Going to be no hiding place given the likely pace in the race.

Roll on.
 
Bizarre you wouldn’t back The Biter because of his last run, but will back Coneygree despite his last five.

I fully expect Might Bite to be back to his best at Kempton, and confidence is high. I just hope he is strongly-opposed in the betting on Tuesday.

I've decided on Bristol. Not an all in but think he is ready to perform elsewhere.
 
Bizarre you wouldn’t back The Biter because of his last run, but will back Coneygree despite his last five.

I fully expect Might Bite to be back to his best at Kempton, and confidence is high. I just hope he is strongly-opposed in the betting on Tuesday.

I don't agree with either Coneygree's last run was a very good effort on comeback Grass imo. And 4 runs ago he went close with Djakadam and Sizing John after 6 months layoff with problems neither that run or his last run entitle him to be 33/1.

On the other hand I wouldn't be worried about Might Bites run lto and certainly think he's the most likely to take the honours the others have bigger question marks over them imo. If We were to get a shed load of rain then that opinion would change but they are predicting Gd-soft.

I'm waiting on both Coney and the Shuffler for 10k off either from soft e/w doubles again but don't really hold out too much (practically zero) hope for either. Coney at his best was as good as any of these but its hard to see not only him stringing two performances together with the problems he's had but at nearly 12 being able to produce anything like what he did a few years ago. Still hopeful he'll run a big race and pick up the place part.

It is really a race I can't wait to see, it would be fantastic if the vast majority of them could run something like their best.
 
I rate MB a proper champion but I just wonder if he will be at his best.

I'm not sure he has been at his best since the RSA and I can't help wondering if his big run in the Feltham when he fell with the race sewn up in a very fast time, followed by his extraordinary show of pace in the RSA have left their mark.

He was able to confirm his superiority over Whisper at Aintree but by nowhere near as far as had looked likely at Cheltenham.

On his subsequent reappearance he didn't need to be asked any questions to beat a five-year-old Frodon.

Then he may have idled in beating Double Shuffle in last year's race but it didn't look "easy".

Then he couldn't beat - for me - an ordinary horse in Native River (172 tops for me) in the Gold Cup.

Then at Aintree he did manage to get back to winning form beating BDM but the next three weren't beaten much further and they were rated only 155, 150 and 158 respectively.

Then he properly disappointed on his seasonal reappearance.

I have no doubt the real Might Bite would toy with this field but I just don't know whether we will ever see him again. I do hope so though.
 
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The best figure MB has ever produced...last years Gold Cup D.O ?

I'll get back to you on that, Danny.

It might depend on whether you mean form or time.

Ruby Walsh was certainly blown away by his RSA performance and the form has been franked over and over. And when he was running away with the Feltham he was something like 20 lengths faster than the King George.
 
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My view:
There's little evidence that WP will stay the trip, and the exaggerated hold-up ride he was given at Ascot suggests the stable are none too confident, either. Probably better with more cut than seems likely at Kempton, also, so is easily swerved.
Consistency has never been NTD's strong suit, and BDM did nothing to alter that view when getting murdered in this last year (at half this season's price) after dotting up at Haydock.
Native River ran much as expected at Haydock, confirming a sharp 3m is not his bag, and though he's likely to force a strong pace, the ground again promises to be against him.
Thistlecrack's a 10yo, and unlikely getting better, which leaves just 2 possibles, imo.
My fancy is Politologue, who's probably capable of more improvement and has fewer questions to answer than the rest. However, I can't ignore Might Bite, who has most of the credentials, and it's not wildly imaginative to suppose NH screwed up, and his diappointing Haydock run was down to lack of peak fitness, so I'll augment the main bet with enough of a f/c to come out smiling, either way.
 
Certainly a fascinating renewal the more I've looked the more clueless I become as to who will come out on top. After giving WP a proper once over like Euro I'm prepared to think he's out of it and won't stay the trip.

Of the bunch in the Betfair it seems a lot of people have pointed out that ThistleCrack will be more suited by the fences at Kempton and that's fair comment and if we looked at his reappearance run last term and the improvement from that to the King George then he certainly seems in better order this year. The one I think suffered most in the jumping department at Haydock though was Clan Des Obeaux, he was certainly jumping right at every flight and inbetween some rather fantastic jumps he certainly got the first wrong and I think it was the third last maybe the 2nd last Cobden's gone for a big one and its all gone a bit wrong which seemed to spoil the horses momentum. Initially I'd have thought CDO just plainly not good enough but thinking he's the youngest of all of them all, it stands to reason there could still be more to come. Also the thought occurred to me that BDM has really won it with a fair bit to spare. I've always written him off tbh as a Haydock specialist which is a view widely expressed apart from his most hardened supporters. Trying to be opened minded he disappointed at Kempton and Cheltenham last winter but I'm sure there was some issue with ulcers at that time. His effort at Aintree in the Spring was decent considering the build up he'd had so all in all I'm not as keen to write him off as I was initially.

I think is might be the most competitive King George I can remember.
 
The best figure MB has ever produced...last years Gold Cup D.O ?

It turns out my best form figure for MB isn't last year's Gold Cup for reason already posted (about going pretty low with the race).

It's probably wrong of me to say I've never been a fan of Native River, if that's how it's ever come across. I mentioned at the time his form in the Newbury novice with Un Temps Pour Tout was exceptional on time for novices but for me he hasn't really gone on too much, if at all. To me when he won the Gold Cup he didn't do any more (on my figures anyway) than when winning the Hennessy and Welsh Nash off 155. It's obviously purely subjective but I have him running to 168 in wining the Gold Cup.

I don't have my old bank of ratings. I threw out all my older papers when I was clearing out the loft ahead of putting the house on the market during the summer and only kept last season's form (which I'll throw out at the start of next season). I used to subscribe to the RP site so most of my ratings are logged there for older races. I only have two figures for MB's chase form there, his 168 for the Feltham ( a very big rating for a novice) and his 170 (++) for his RSA, again a very big rating for a novice. (Presenting Percy wasn't that high).

I've already posted [somewhere] why I went low with the Gold Cup.

But Ruby Walsh still raves about what MB did in the RSA and that form has been franked as utterly top class. I really do think Might Bite was at that stage on course to becoming one of the greats but his 'current' form does concern me. I'd dearly love to see him win a mile.

This is what I've come up with in my deliberations:

KEM 3.05 32RED KING GEORGE VI CHASE (GRADE 1) (Class 1) (4yo+) Winner £142,37510 runners 3m Good To Soft ITV
[TABLE="width: 747"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]No.
[/TD]
[TD]Form
[/TD]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Stats
[/TD]
[TD]Age
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Jockey
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]MON
[/TD]
[TD]Notes
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 7
[/TD]
[TD]1241-1
[/TD]
[TD] Politologue
[/TD]
[TD]ht C
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Sam Twiston-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]173
[/TD]
[TD]p +?
[/TD]
[TD]177
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 10
[/TD]
[TD]1/111-
[/TD]
[TD] Waiting Patiently
[/TD]
[TD]C
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Brian Hughes
[/TD]
[TD]170
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD]+p t?
[/TD]
[TD]178
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 1
[/TD]
[TD]1632-1
[/TD]
[TD] Bristol De Mai
[/TD]
[TD]D
[/TD]
[TD]7
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Daryl Jacob
[/TD]
[TD]169
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]+ 180? v c ?
[/TD]
[TD]186
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 5
[/TD]
[TD]1121-5
[/TD]
[TD] Might Bite
[/TD]
[TD]CD bf
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Nico de Boinville
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[TD]++
[/TD]
[TD]178
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 6
[/TD]
[TD]3/11-2
[/TD]
[TD] Native River
[/TD]
[TD]p D
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Richard Johnson
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[TD]+?
[/TD]
[TD]182
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 9
[/TD]
[TD]2/54-3
[/TD]
[TD] Thistlecrack
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD]10
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Tom Scudamore
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[TD]+ [171]
[/TD]
[TD]176
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 2
[/TD]
[TD]2123-4
[/TD]
[TD] Clan Des Obeaux
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD]6
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Cobden
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]+p
[/TD]
[TD]171
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 3
[/TD]
[TD]3/PP-3
[/TD]
[TD] Coneygree
[/TD]
[TD]t CD
[/TD]
[TD]11
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Sean Bowen
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[TD]++ [176]
[/TD]
[TD]168
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 8
[/TD]
[TD]P76-P3
[/TD]
[TD] Tea For Two
[/TD]
[TD]CD
[/TD]
[TD]9
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Lizzie Kelly
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[TD]+
[/TD]
[TD]172
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] 4
[/TD]
[TD]274-F2
[/TD]
[TD] Double Shuffle
[/TD]
[TD]h CD
[/TD]
[TD]8
[/TD]
[TD]11-10
[/TD]
[TD]Jonathan Burke
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[TD]159
[/TD]
[TD]166??
[/TD]
[TD]174
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

I keep saying I believe Might Bite is a 180+ horse so I want to see him win but what if I’m wrong about him? I can’t back Waiting Patiently as I’m not sure about the trip for him. His layoff doesn’t worry me despite stat idolators telling us no horse has won this race on its seasonal debut since Jesus was a twinkle in the Big Man’s eye. Bristol De Mai’s best form would give him a real shout but will he show it away from Haydock and in ground that won’t be as testing? It’s a hugely intriguing race and if I can find a market without Might Bite I’ll probably back Coneygree each-way. I thought he ran a race full of promise first time up and this is probably his Gold Cup as it’s likely to be too firm for him come March.
 
That's a good post Des but I'm struggling to see how you don't rate Native river as a proper horse. I'd agree that MB has the capabilities that you say he does and I think you'd see them in a good ground Gold Cup I'm just not so sure you'll see them today. Then again in fairness I'm not sure what to expect from any of this lot today :lol:
 
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Politologue for me in the KG. Also think Clan Des Obeaux may run a big race.
Can't be having Bristol De Mai or Native River.
 
It's so open that I really hope someone stamps their authority on it

Native River is overpriced. I just don't think Politilogue will be good enough, siding with Bristol.
 
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