The alternative Cheltenham Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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I like Road to Riches for the Ryanair ,with Don Cossack and Don Poli both definites for the Gold Cup it would make more sense to have a decent chance of winning their own race.

6/1 NRNB even if Vatour runs in the Ryanair will be much bigger than 6/1 on the day ? or hes 12/1 ante post .
 
EW Multiple bets take some getting up but when you do get one up the rest of the year can take care of itself.

I would have to be 100% Altior sure turns up before I would put him in but an EW treble on NJH horses is a must.

Why go at it half cocked ?
Lami Serge 10/1

Peace and Co 16/1

Sprinter Sacre 4/1

100 ew treble gets a cool 97,000 pounds the place part 3,500 is not something to turn your nose up at.
 
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an capall said:
I am still of the view that Nichols Canyon will run in the World Hurdle (20s) and should be doubled EW with Black Hercules (10s) in the NH chase.
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A a friend of mine insists that Nicholls Canyon will run in the Stayers Hurdle-thinking about it when Ingles Drever won his first Stayers it was a very late decision to run in the longer race -he was only taken out of the Champion at the overnight stage-maybe the 20/1 has a serious amount of juice in it.
 
LUKE said:
A a friend of mine insists that Nicholls Canyon will run in the Stayers Hurdle-thinking about it when Ingles Drever won his first Stayers it was a very late decision to run in the longer race -he was only taken out of the Champion at the overnight stage-maybe the 20/1 has a serious amount of juice in it.
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69 on the machine. Inglis Drever was the other way around. There was a school of thought he'd have a chance in a champion.
 
Am I right in saying that Ingles Drever won the Champion Hurdle trial at Wincanton before the stayers-that 100% entitled him to a crack at the Champion but Wylie was smart enough to switch to the longer race.
I think another serious factor is that we are talking a stable that are rewriting what can and can't be done-they will want to have a serious crack at winning all 4 Championship races and they need a serious candidate for the Stayers.
 
LUKE said:
Am I right in saying that Ingles Drever won the Champion Hurdle trial at Wincanton before the stayers-that 100% entitled him to a crack at the Champion but Wylie was smart enough to switch to the longer race.
I think another serious factor is that we are talking a stable that are rewriting what can and can't be done-they will want to have a serious crack at winning all 4 Championship races and they need a serious candidate for the Stayers.
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No it was completely the other way around. The 'out of the box' thinking was that he should go for the Champion.
 
So, back to Vautour then. If our book(s) are correct there are two logical courses of action. Back him for the gold cup, and back against him in the Ryanair. I wouldn't be massively keen on the former as I don't think he stays (though of course we could lay it off). The latter is definitely a goer.

Next question - what does run?
 
BennyB said:
So, back to Vautour then. If our book(s) are correct there are two logical courses of action. Back him for the gold cup, and back against him in the Ryanair. I wouldn't be massively keen on the former as I don't think he stays (though of course we could lay it off). The latter is definitely a goer.

Next question - what does run?
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Smad Place
 
Given the winter we've had you wouldn't rule out a soft ground festival, which would make him a doubly good bet. In vautour's absence he could go off 7/2 fav.
 
BennyB said:
Given the winter we've had you wouldn't rule out a soft ground festival, which would make him a doubly good bet. In vautour's absence he could go off 7/2 fav.
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Horses who's running plans completely hinge on certain going descriptions are the best type of NRNB bets.
 
SlimChance said:
Horses who's running plans completely hinge on certain going descriptions are the best type of NRNB bets.
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Does that apply to Smad Place though? I think his chance is better on soft but won't he run on whatever ground? Or would quicker ground lead connections to think he might last the longer trip?
 
BennyB said:
Does that apply to Smad Place though? I think his chance is better on soft but won't he run on whatever ground? Or would quicker ground lead connections to think he might last the longer trip?
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Does not apply to him and the Ryanair is long odds on to be run on good ground.
 
BennyB said:
So, back to Vautour then. If our book(s) are correct there are two logical courses of action. Back him for the gold cup, and back against him in the Ryanair. I wouldn't be massively keen on the former as I don't think he stays (though of course we could lay it off). The latter is definitely a goer.

Next question - what does run?
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Almost certain - Al Ferof, Vibrato Valtat, Valseur Lido, Irish Cavalier, Ma Filluele.
 
At this point if we haven't seen a horse it can't be counted as a 80%+ runner. That's why I didn't include my strongest fancy for the race (apache s)
 
Garde La Victoire @ 16/1 for me in the Arkle. Beat Bristol De Mai (not out of this either!) easily at Uttoxeter on his chasing debut and then went on to take the Grade 2 at the Open meeting.

GLV looks to me like a horse who's price is a complete result of him not running since - started out at 16's for the Arkle and is still 16's as he hasn't run. Think Bristol De Mai ran well over sub-2m against Ar Mad at Sandown (BDM probably be better over further) and with GLV having solid CD form and his hurdles form vs. Vaniteux would indicate there's not much between him and Ar Mad on form.
 
SlimChance said:
Re: Vatour Ryanair

This brings up an excellent anomaly in the markets



Race .......................Betfair...........With A Run
Chamoion Chase.........13.5..................3.5
Ryanair......................3.05................2.0
Gold Cup....................10.5.................7.0

This implies that his odds to run in the race:

1/2 Gold Cuo
1/2 Ryanair
3/1 Champion Chase

At 160% he obviously the wrong price for one of these races. Do you know which one he will run in? More importantly, does Willie?!
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Are you simple in the heid, Slim?

Vautour runs nowhere but the Gold Cup. Get gripped-up.
 
The best ante-post each-way bet available out there is Garde La Victoire in the JLT (sorry, Martin).

Can't win the Arkle, but has winning steeplechase form at Cheltenham, and winning novice hurdle form at the track over 2m4f. Hobbs is no muppet, and is a cert to target the weaker race with a horse who will have conditions to suit.

Pinned.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Are you simple in the heid, Slim?

Vautour runs nowhere but the Gold Cup. Get gripped-up.
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Read the post again when you're not sky high. I'm showing the prices that the market makes him to run in each race which are obviously wrong somewhere.
 
SlimChance said:
Read the post again when you're not sky high. I'm showing the prices that the market makes him to run in each race which are obviously wrong somewhere.
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I shall do no such thing.

Forget your odds. The market is weighted by scaredy-cats, cowardy-custards, chicken-shits, and numb-skulls.

Vautour will 100% run in the Gold Cup. It isn't even up for debate.

They had their year of compromise with The Vulture last year, when they ran him in the JLT, and gave UDS a free run at the Arkle, and Faugheen a free run at the Champion Hurdle.

They will not fu*ck about this season, and connections will view winning the Ryanair like getting their hole with the fat-bird, when the Prom Queen was there for the taking the entire time.
 
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