The alternative Cheltenham Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
  • Start date Start date
But I can do that too :). I had no intention of tying up all of my free capital in the bet as aside from the fact I'd be a gibbering wreck on the day, I wouldn't be able to get it on.

So when you see an even money shot between now and March - with a genuinely better chance than Vautour would have were he to line up in the Ryanair - then please let me know.
 
wilsonl said:
But I can do that too :). I had no intention of tying up all of my free capital in the bet as aside from the fact I'd be a gibbering wreck on the day, I wouldn't be able to get it on.

So when you see an even money shot between now and March - with a genuinely better chance than Vautour would have were he to line up in the Ryanair - then please let me know.
Click to expand...

You'd be doing well not go get EVS or better on the day.
 
He'd be the certainty of the whole meeting but I grant you it is possible, although it would depend on how the first two days had gone I suppose.

Anyhow, it's unlikely to happen - and Grassy would give birth if it did - so I'll hijack the thread no longer.
 
SlimChance said:
Grasshopper seems to have mistaken this thread for the 'who's your favourite band member' thread on the One Direction forum. He is displaying all the signs of a fanboy.

5.) They perceive anyone who gives non-kid-gloves treatment as a threat.
4.) They act entitled and can’t handle criticism; no matter how valid
3.) They act superior to others, including fellow fans who aren’t as “elite.”
2.) Their behavior makes others embarrassed to be a part of their fandoms
1.) Since they care more about “supporting” their favorite series than quality, the creators don’t get properly chastised for making a crappy product.

I can't stress enough that there is no place on this thread which is aimed at making money for this bollocks.
Click to expand...

Now I feel violated.
 
A lot of people need to go back and read the first post on this thread. We're not here to discuss whether to back even money favs or not.

The e/w value at present looks to be in the Arkle, CH and Ryanair for sure. I'd be more inclined to pick Vaniteux for the Arkle rather than Ar Mad, mainly because he's more likely to line up. We also know he's very close to Ar Mad going right handed which we think is a very decent level and surely puts him in the top 3 in March. If Ar Mad is only a few lengths worse going left then Vaniteux finishes in front of him. Yes he's shorter in the betting at 10's but I still think that's currently better value than Ar Mad's 16's with all the doubts.

In the Champion Hurdle I like Arctic Fire and Identity Thief, mainly because I can't see Nichols Canyon running to his best around Chelts. Old Guard is also a possible at a massive price.

The Ryanair is where we need to focus our efforts to pick out the likely runners. This was started about 3 pages back before going off on a tangent!
 
Who leads? Will that be decided before the race. One thing for sure is that there won't be any messing about this time.
 
wilsonl said:
He'd be the certainty of the whole meeting but I grant you it is possible, although it would depend on how the first two days had gone I suppose.

Anyhow, it's unlikely to happen - and Grassy would give birth if it did - so I'll hijack the thread no longer.
Click to expand...

All views welcome. If you put together the final field for the Ryanair how far ahead on ratings would Vatour be? EVS could well be the wrong price but the Cheltenham market is such an animal for taking on short ones.
 
Euronymous said:
If NC leads he's a massive price for the race, I just don't think they'll let him though.
Click to expand...

If NC is allowed to lead, if dawdling Ruby will just take over so either way there will be no excuses here I think in terms of pace.
 
TheBear said:
The Ryanair is where we need to focus our efforts to pick out the likely runners. This was started about 3 pages back before going off on a tangent!
Click to expand...

Al Ferof will be entered in CGC, QMCC and Ryanair but I know for a fact John Hales wants to run him in the Ryanair.
 
Valseur Lido - No other race for him
Vibrato Valtat - Nicholls has said he is being stepped up in trip
Champagne West. Why not? Better than a handicapper.
 
The JLT has a 9/2 favourite, with 9/1 bar one.

As per previous, Garde La Victiore (16/1) is an each-way kick for this.
 
Last edited:
Euronymous said:
Valseur Lido - No other race for him
Vibrato Valtat - Nicholls has said he is being stepped up in trip
Champagne West. Why not? Better than a handicapper.
Click to expand...

I was going to put up Champagne West but I think connections are inclined to try him in another handicap since his run behind Village Vic looks better and better. He's certainly one to watch.

Regarding Nichols Canyon, I just think he likes cut in the ground to be seen at his very best.

Garde La Victiore should be added to the shortlist. His price is especially enticing since he's a better chance of actually winning the race compared to the others we've mentioned.
 
Last edited:
SlimChance said:
All views welcome. If you put together the final field for the Ryanair how far ahead on ratings would Vatour be? EVS could well be the wrong price but the Cheltenham market is such an animal for taking on short ones.
Click to expand...

Vautour - 171
Smad Place - 168
Al Ferof - 165
Dynaste - 162
Vibrato Valtat - 161
Sound Investment - 161
Valseur Lido - 156
Champagne West - 154
Irish Cavalier - 154
Ma Filleule - 150

But anybody who thinks Smad Place or Al Ferof would be within half a stone of Vautour over 2m5f around Cheltenham requires electroconvulsive therapy.

The question is would Vautour have a less than 50% chance of beating that lot... but I agree with you re the Cheltenham rails so who knows how the market would go on the day.


Of the other potential runners Dynaste interests me. He's a previous winner of the race and his two runs behind Cue Card prior to his lacklustre effort over hurdles in the Long Walk aren't looking too bad in hindsight. Pipe's horses were not running well at the time and he still had horses such as Many clouds, Sam Winner, Ballynagour (a further pointer to the form of the yard ?), Holywell and Menorah behind.

He seems better suited to this trip than those 3+ miles races in soft ground and the Pipe yard have a history of bringing back decent horses during the festival so 20/1 strikes me as good e/w value.

Vautour Win - NRNB +
Dynaste e/w @ 20/1
 
Last edited:
The more I look at the Ryanair the more I think it's going to be a big field this year, with or without Vautour. I was going down the list on Oddschecker but could only get rid of about 5 with any confidence by the time I got about 20 names down. Even that far down the list I'm seeing names such as Ma Filleule and Ptit Zig who certainly aren't no hopers.

Normally you'd think Vautour turning up would scare quite a few off but I'd be hard pushed to say where the majority of them would go instead. The whole point of e/w multiples is to identify big prices in a shallow pool, such as the Arkle & CH but the Ryanair looks anything but.
 
Probably a discussion for a different thread unless you're putting up NC as an e/w multiple candidate?
 
TheBear said:
The more I look at the Ryanair the more I think it's going to be a big field this year, with or without Vautour. I was going down the list on Oddschecker but could only get rid of about 5 with any confidence by the time I got about 20 names down. Even that far down the list I'm seeing names such as Ma Filleule and Ptit Zig who certainly aren't no hopers.

Normally you'd think Vautour turning up would scare quite a few off but I'd be hard pushed to say where the majority of them would go instead. The whole point of e/w multiples is to identify big prices in a shallow pool, such as the Arkle & CH but the Ryanair looks anything but.
Click to expand...

Good post. Good point well made.
 
World Hurdle good race to find the ones to hit the frame also. Unless you think that Thistlecrack is worth taking on anyway, even better.
 
Frankel said:
World Hurdle good race to find the ones to hit the frame also. Unless you think that Thistlecrack is worth taking on anyway, even better.
Click to expand...

It will be 4 places on the day. Hard to get anything even close to that edge now.
 
The mares race might be one to target. It fits the profile of a race with a short priced fav and a shallow talent pool. Even the Queen Mum could be considered. Special Tiara stands out there.
 
TheBear said:
The mares race might be one to target. It fits the profile of a race with a short priced fav and a shallow talent pool. Even the Queen Mum could be considered. Special Tiara stands out there.
Click to expand...

The problem with the mares race is there such garbage in behind. I got absolutely raped by putting Sirene D'Ainy in every multiple going two years ago. Fell two out. Heartbreak.

The mares novice race is a far better because it will be equally front end but to may find one that will collapse in price. I could see Limini going off 6/4.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top