The Arc 2021

Alenquer beautifully drawn in stall 8 and had to shop around and spread bets but managed to get 33/1 3 places.

28/1 is available elsewhere but typically 3 places although 4 places is out there if you're lucky enough to receive price boosts with Laddies.

Pretty certain there'll be better place terms on the day but if the expected rain comes he won't be double carpet.
 
I'm hoping the ground doesn't get too heavy.

Love is an interesting filly as she's never ran on testing conditions. I don't dispute she won't want heavy and it seems her participation would be in doubt if it came up heavy ground.

I'm hoping for no worse than soft.

I'm also hoping she might handle soft ground better than anticipated as after all she's never run on it.

She's by a Pivotal mare so theres definately some hope for Love on soft.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
I'm toying with the idea of taking 40/1 Sealiway. It's only because two or three bookies aren't quoting him that's holding me back since it might mean he won't run but he was only a neck behind SMB in the French Derby and could still be a bit of a dark horse who might even improve for the step up in trip.
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Declared for the race so I've gone in at 40s. Any rain will help.
 
wilsonl said:
Alenquer beautifully drawn in stall 8 and had to shop around and spread bets but managed to get 33/1 3 places.

28/1 is available elsewhere but typically 3 places although 4 places is out there if you're lucky enough to receive price boosts with Laddies.

.
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I have told a friend, who knows nothing about racing but is desperate to empty her paddypower account, to back him each way.
Not like you she says to volunteer ( usually nags me for tips or backs anything named anything vaguely Scottish, or Betty's Belle the other day as her puppy called Betsy Belle, it was close and by Schiaparelli whose offspring we keep an eye on ) , no I know I say but as the more learned on here saying, ground and will have stamina to stay. Not saying he will win but must have a chance especially with no one coming into really on recent fire/comments of niggles.....
 
Adayar does look good to me.but I like a bit of a bigger price so I've gone for RAABIHAH 25/1 although hes drawn in the car park.
On his beating of one of Jessie's puts it on par with that irish horse beginning with T.ive only just been looking and already forgot their names.lol.
 
wilsonl said:
He missed the break in the Grand Prix de Paris but finished roughly the same distance behind the winner as he was throughout the race.
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Alenquer did not miss the break in the GP de Paris and finished seven length behind the winner.

Just want to mention that only three horses older then 4 won the Arc in the last 72 years (Star Appeal 1975, Marienbard 2002, Waldgeist 2019). Tarnawa and Chrono Genesis are 5 years old.
 
SeaTheMoon said:
Alenquer did not miss the break in the GP de Paris and finished seven length behind the winner.

Just want to mention that only three horses older then 4 won the Arc in the last 72 years (Star Appeal 1975, Marienbard 2002, Waldgeist 2019). Tarnawa and Chrono Genesis are 5 years old.
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On reflection “Miss the break” was a lazy way of saying he was slowly away. True, he left the stalls largely on terms with the field but he was roughly the same distance behind the winner after 100 yards as he was at the line and while I’m not necessarily suggesting he can turn the tables, he’s now 7 times the price, has ground to suit and will hopefully be ridden more prominently from his good draw.

RP Analysis : “found himself a fair way back after a sluggish start”
 
Alenquer was deliberately checked from the stalls to move across from his outside draw and , as a consequence, was out the back when the race became a typical French stack & sprint, and did well to finsih 3rd against so many he'd ceded a start to (Replay, for those who'd care to check.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWg8Yfa_VwQ
 
SkyBet 25/1 paying 5 places is enough to tempt me in


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Thinking that Alenquer wants 1m4 on very soft is ignoring the form book. Apart from his breeding what makes people think conditions will suit?
 
ep1987 said:
Thinking that Alenquer wants 1m4 on very soft is ignoring the form book. Apart from his breeding what makes people think conditions will suit?
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23Apr21
Sandown (10Gd, RPR 113)

Alenquer has come here today and shown what you want to see from a horse coming into their three-year-old career and I was very impressed with him. Being by a German sire, it points you to heavy ground and there is some give in it, which has helped him out, but I don't think he needs it heavy. He stayed a stiff mile and a quarter there, wandering about, and you'd have to say the tank wasn't empty going to the line. An extra couple of furlongs on a more forgiving track wouldn't be out of the question. He's pretty fit, but you'd hope to see some improvement - Tom Marquand, jock
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I’m surprised it took so long given forecast ground conditions but the market is finally waking up to him and I’d say his general price now is much fairer reflection of his chances
 
wilsonl said:
I’m surprised it took so long given forecast ground conditions but the market is finally waking up to him and I’d say his general price now is much fairer reflection of his chances
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Indeed. I feel two sporting each way bets on Love and Alenquer will do for me.

I'm just hoping the rain isn't as bad as forecast. Love could be a N/R on heavy.
 
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I've changed my mind about Hurricane Lane. I was so caught up in the stat about Leger winners never having gone to Paris and won that I didn't look beyond that stat - and that is not that they didn't win - but did they run to form? User Friendly, Kingston Hill and even going way back to Toulon, they all hit the frame and probably all ran to near enough their best. So is Hurricane Lane up to winning this if he runs to his best? He is imo, Adayar has had a poor prep and he would be the form danger and I looked back on Enable and Treve when they won their Arc's as 4yos and both had one thing in common - no decent 3yo colts were in opposition. 4/1 isn't that exciting now but it's slight value.
 
Desert Orchid said:
With Snowfall laying down a huge marker for the season in the Oaks, this might be a good time to get a thread up and running for the Arc.

She's 6s tops now for Paris as far as I can see.
...

We'll see what the Derby throws up tomorrow.
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I thought I'd look back at how I started this thread. We have the Derby and Oaks winners very prominent in the market and I'm now wondering if I'll look pretty daft not backing Snowfall.
 
Provided he gets away well and is up with the pace (Which given the relative lack of pace/front runners i think he will), Adayar will win this. First proper bet for a while. I think this horse is a monster over 1m4f.

Good luck all. Absolute cracker of an Arc.
 
I think he will be. He’s got quite a grinding action with plenty of knee lift.
 
The short priced fav Racelette is a N/R in the first race, which makes it more open from a betting point of view. Oscula will do for me.
 
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For me Palmas in the Prix de l'Opéra is the bet of the day, as the Arc is to difficult to figure out for me. She is unbeaten and won the German Oaks by six length, earned Speed-Punkte (speed figures) of 84, which is really high. No idea how she will manage the deep ground, but the odds are good for me.
 
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