The Champion Hurdle 2010

Me too.

I'm all for allowing a horse an unexpected defeat, more so if it's first time up. Fans of Binocular shouldn't give up hope regardless of how someone like me rates its chances to begin with. It's quite clear Binocular didn't run to form yesterday. Forget yesterday's race.

Maybe we gave Solwhit too much credit for winning an unsatisfactory race the other week.
 
The Ascot run looks mid-160's form to me, which puts him right in the mix in terms of ability for the Champion Hurdle. He's progressed with each outing to date and his proven stamina will be an asset in a race like the Champion. I don't think dropping back to 2m will be an issue, and they always have the option of putting the headgear back on if they think he needs sharpening up a little.
 
I don't really see how yesterday's race changes the champion hurdle picture. All we know now is that Go Native and Sublimity have the best turn of foot on that ground. The pace was farcical which meant Binocular's fluent hurdling (his strongest asset) was blunted and Solwhit didn't get to use his proven stamina. Go Native has travelled like that in every race he has run in.

I would be shocked if either won the Champion in March. Go Native in particular will run out of petrol. He may well win the Christmas hurdle en route though.
 
Aragorn said:
Go Native in particular will run out of petrol.
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You don't think he'll win. Fair enough. But he's a course and distance winner in a truly-run race when his jockey by his own admission took it up much earlier than he would have liked, so well was the horse travelling. I don't see how the above comment can be justified.
 
If you fancy Go Native in the Champion Hurdle than Hurricane Fly should be odds on. I dont remember who else filled the placings but beating Somersby in the Supreme is two stone away from winning next years Champion.
 
He held on from a fast closing Medermit who probably run to early 150's on his reappearance in the greatwood.

He probably has improved but I would need to see him win a truly run race to be considered for the champion. Voler La Vodette must come into your reckoning then? Murphy knows the time of day and she beat Go Native pretty easily.
 
On my figures, Go Native ran to 156 in the Supreme. That would leave him only 10lbs to win an average Champion Hurdle. Some SN winners improve that much and/or more, many don't.
 
Kinda see your point Gearoid but I think Go Native is the kind of horse that won't be winning any races by miles. The only race he's won by more than three or four lengths is a summer maiden hurdle in Kilbeggan - his Cheltenham prep last year was a two length win over Roberto Goldback. He was sent off in front too early at Cheltenham last year and still won but generally he's one that needs to be produced late so I'm not sure of the value of collateral form.

I think he'll be in the reckoning in the Champion but, at the same time, wouldn't say he's going to win it. But he deserves respect, definitely.

He was undercooked the last day - according to Meade, Aragorn - but then again VLV could be anything at this stage. I'd still fancy Go Native to reverse placings on the big day though.
 
Fair points Bobbyjo. I think it was Galileo that said Go Natiue was punch drunk on the run in at Down Royal. I was a Hurricane Fly basher after his last run but Im struggling foi an opinion now. One thing is certain to me though, the money in the markets said Go Natiue and Hurricane Fly would not win first time out.
 
I went in again tonight at 7/1 Celestial Halo. I might put enough on Zaynar later to cover the bets but I can't see past those two at this stage.
 
The Magic Sign have put Hurricane Fly in at 5/2 jolly for the December Festival Hurdle...

"Ladbrokes have also priced up the Leopardstown Golf Centre December Festival Hurdle and make Hurricane Fly their 5-2 favourite with Solwhit next best at 3-1 and Voler La Vedette, who was the subject of a bullish bulletin on Monday, a 4-1 chance.
O'Connor added: "Willie Mullins didn't give much away after Hurricane Fly's Punchestown run and we anticipate plenty of improvement on his return."
 
Euronymous said:
I'm with you on Celestial Halo but my cover is Hurricane Fly.
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Like DO I'd favour Zaynar over HF. I'd agree with both of you that Celestial Halo must surely be right there and he and Punjabi are my back up bets to Binocular (who I'd need to see again before deciding which way to jump).
 
Cheltenham Saturday

Ashkazar (FR) 5.g
Cape Tribulation 5.g
Celestial Halo (IRE) 5.g
Ebadiyan (IRE) 4.g
Khyber Kim 7.g
Medermit (FR) 5.g
Oslot (FR) 7.g
Punjabi 6.g
Secret Dancer (IRE) 4.g
Songe (FR) 5.g
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