The Champion Hurdle 2010

Desert Orchid said:
You know how much I respect your judgment, Steve. It's obvious you have a far higher opinion of the horse than any conclusion I can reach from the form book. I could never take 4/1 at this stage of the season on what I'm reading. He may well eventually prove to be much better than his stablemates but I'd rather take 2/1 once he's done that.

My reading tells me Celestial Halo is already some way better than when alongside Binocular in last season's Champion. To have got 10/1 (and subsequently 8s after Hurricane run's defeat) in those circumstances struck me as being amazing value.

If my reading proves right it will have been amazing value. If my reading is misguided I'm donald-ducked but that's what punting is all about.
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I've said all along that Celestial Halo and Punjabi are my joint next-best for the Champion at this stage. I backed Binocular at 4s (quite heavily) before the price disappeared. I have small positions at the moment in Punjabi and Celestial Halo (both a 12s). I may back something else as well come mid-March (perhaps Zaynar), or add to my positions on the others. As you probably know the way I tend to stake in this sort of race is to ensure a profit if any one of two or three win and breakeven or limit downside by backing any others.

This is sort of besides the point. My point is that I think we can expect a very big performance from Binocular at the weekend.

My only other bets thus far are Denman for the Gold Cup and Punchestowns for the RSA Chase (before he appears on Friday). I should probably get round to backing Big Buck's for the World Hurdle as well.
 
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A very big performance this weekend could well bring Binocular down to a ridiculous price. It's not for me to tell my granny how to suck eggs but in your shoes I'd be looking to lay off everything I have on Binocular at short odds if he does.
 
Desert Orchid said:
A very big performance this weekend could well bring Binocular down to a ridiculous price. It's not for me to tell my granny how to suck eggs but in your shoes I'd be looking to lay off everything I have on Binocular at short odds if he does.
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That would be one way. But I'd be happier to stick with the 4s and wait until March. I can build a limited book around the others if my perception changes... you see I believe at this point that Binocular has a decisive 'best chance' in the Champion.

I didn't lay back a penny of my 33/1, 22/1, 14/1 and 16/1 (without the favourite) on Punjabi last time. But opted to raise my stakes on the other two I fancied for the race. As you can well appreciate I was very happy to have done that.
 
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Gearoid said:
If Binocular can beat Solwhit in the Fighting Fifth he will very much set the standard in the division. Its a cracking contest but as I said earlier the division is so good no horse will not be tested before March. The form will be stacked up.
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Fair point of course, but Cheltenham really is the great leveller, isn't it? I'd be surprised if Binocular didn't beat Solwhit at a flat track like Newcastle, but come Cheltenham in March it will be a different ballgame.

Just looking at that market, hard to see anything outside the top two winning, but Won In The Dark is surely too big at 40's if the ground is good.
 
Desert Orchid said:
At the same time, would anybody be too surprised if Solwhit beat Binocular? Tracks don't come much flatter than Aintree and Solwhit coped with it impressivley.
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The track itself doesn't hold any fears, DO, but beating the likes of Fiveforthree and United (no disrespect to either) is not the same as taking on Binocular over a half mile shorter trip. He certainly looked to show an impressive turn of foot at Punchestown, but a number of factors would lead to question whether he can produce anything as visually impressive at Newcastle.

If he beats Binocular this weekend, he will most certainly set the standard.
 
Desert Orchid said:
At the same time, would anybody be too surprised if Solwhit beat Binocular? Tracks don't come much flatter than Aintree and Solwhit coped with it impressivley.
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I'd be astonished if Solwhit beat Binocular at the weekend... Beating the likes of Muirhead and HF is one thing, but a raring to go Binoculat quite another.
 
SteveM said:
My only other bets thus far are Denman for the Gold Cup and Punchestowns for the RSA Chase (before he appears on Friday). I should probably get round to backing Big Buck's for the World Hurdle as well.
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...talked myself into taking the 7/4 on BB with Hills while it's still there. Should look a big price after the weekend and especially if Diamond Harry is pointed to novice chasing.
 
While I can undestand building a book is a good way to secure a profit I am not so sure tha it is better than doing the bleedin obvious. You think Binocular is going to be raring to go on Saturday and that is one of main reasons for taking the 4-1. Why not just take the perfectly acceptable EVS for the Fighting Fifth. Job done.
 
al eile looks a big price for me at 16s espicially if we get 8 or 9 runners i think he has the beating of all bar binocular and solwhit
 
Bar the Bull said:
I think 7/4 on Big Buck's in November is scandalously bad value.
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I agree it's not the best value. But it's all about building a position. That price will have likely dried up by next week. I'm just fixing some of it now. The more you have on BB the more you can hedge the dangers nearer the time... I always show a profit on my ante-post book at the Festival. My staking in the week of the Festival is simply topping up or hedging to limit downside.
 
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littlelad said:
al eile looks a big price for me at 16s espicially if we get 8 or 9 runners i think he has the beating of all bar binocular and solwhit
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In that case see if you can get 4/1 place only in the run-up to the race. (I.e. wait till it's highly unlikely there will be any non-runners.)
 
Bar the Bull said:
It should all be about value, Steve.
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7/4 may not be the best bit of perceived value ever on BB for the World Hurdle, but it is the best available price. Since I believe that he is by far the likeliest winner and am taking the view that DH may go novice chasing, it could become real value.

Since my current ante-post stake does not represent my final stake, by constructing a limited book with the correct weighting nearer the time I can make it into a value book.

This is the way I approach the Festival, with a view to at least doubling my stake on overall outlay (much larger when you manage to find winners like Punjabi last time). It works nine times out of 10. As I stake much larger for the Festival in ante-post positions than for any other meeting, the profit return is usually the largest I accrue throughout the year.

This strategy attempts to be less ambitious but offers a much higher chance of 'guaranteed' profit.
 
In fairness Steve you can back Diamond Harry at 7-2 to jump a fence under rules with me this year. To use that as a reason to take 7-4 about Big Bucks is just wrong. The compilers of the 7-4 know as much as you do. You are not getting any value, you are just playing the markets.
 
Gearoid said:
In fairness Steve you can back Diamond Harry at 7-2 to jump a fence under rules with me this year. To use that as a reason to take 7-4 about Big Bucks is just wrong. The compilers of the 7-4 know as much as you do. You are not getting any value, you are just playing the markets.
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That's one way of putting it indeed, playing the percentages. I can make this into a limited winning book if the first two or three of my selections win by doing as I have done. 400 returns 1,100 and buys me 700 to use in supporting this position with any dangers nearer the time.

I see there is a snippet in the Post today saying something to the effect that it is a "no-brainer" that DH should take up chasing sooner rather than later. For what it's worth I would agree with that... the connections will of course have their own ideas and according to rory's sources he will stick to hurdling for now.

On the other hand if DH does stick to hurdling, my 8/1 on Punchestowns starts to look a lot better in the RSA Chase (particularly so if MdH goes for the Arkle)... so it's all inter-linked.
 
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