The Champion Hurdle 2010

I knew Hors La Loi III had not run obviously but he had won as a novice at the festival and had a trouble free campagin the year of foot and mouth.
 
I backed Binocular at 6's a month or so ago for reasons outlined elsewhere in this thread, but I reckon Harchibald is the most likely winner...
 
Re-watching the race it is astonishing to me how Celestial Halo could be involved in the finish given how the race was run. I'd far rather have him on my side at Cheltenham than Binocular. 14s is a very fair each way price.
 
Euronymous said:
Re-watching the race it is astonishing to me how Celestial Halo could be involved in the finish given how the race was run. I'd far rather have him on my side at Cheltenham than Binocular. 14s is a very fair each way price.
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It's a great bet at 14s, he'll be there abouts.
 
I'm not getting involved yet though. I think he's a Cheltenham horse and if he has the same sort of campaign this season i'm hopeful he'll get there still in double figures. 10s in early March is better than 14s now.
 
Euronymous said:
Re-watching the race it is astonishing to me how Celestial Halo could be involved in the finish given how the race was run. I'd far rather have him on my side at Cheltenham than Binocular. 14s is a very fair each way price.
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If the race had been run at a slower pace, would he not have been outpaced when the tempo quickened, given that he's essentially a 'grinder'?

His run last year (and it certainly was a belting run) is just about as good as he is I reckon, whereas Binocular has scope for further improvement. Of course, that's reflected in their respective prices.
 
trackside528 said:
If the race had been run at a slower pace, would he not have been outpaced when the tempo quickened, given that he's essentially a 'grinder'?
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Fair point, but Champion Hurdle's with big fields are never run at a slow pace.

trackside528 said:
His run last year (and it certainly was a belting run) is just about as good as he is I reckon, whereas Binocular has scope for further improvement. Of course, that's reflected in their respective prices.
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I think that's debatable. But again, it was a race to suit the hold up horses and I would hope that he'll be ridden with more restaint next time.
 
I think Hurricane Fly has been massively over-rated in terms of his odds for this. Yes, his novice form looks fantastic and has been very well franked. But, he has never run in a fast run race such as those at Cheltenham, never run at Cheltenham (has he run at an undulating track?) and never run in a Championship race of any description. He is also by a sire whose stock generally get worse with age. For me, he has a lot still to prove.

I go along with Trackside in that 6s for Binocular is an outstanding bet. I don't believe he was fully fit last March, and that mistake clearly won't be made again. He has reportedly strengthened up massively over the summer, and will no doubt shorten when he wins the Boylesports!
 
HF is the biggest cert of the festival...(as long as he gets there)...with a staying on Solwhit taking 2nd from Bini...
 
Undulating track should not be a problem - why would it - he is a small, compact and handy horse.

He has loads of early pace so a fast pace should suit him ideally - in fact any of his sticky jumps have been done in the early part of the race when they have gone steady early on.

He has won at Punchestown, Fairyhouse, Auteuil, Leopardstown etc without any hint of a quirk. He is bullet proof.
 
Hamm said:
I think Hurricane Fly has been massively over-rated in terms of his odds for this. Yes, his novice form looks fantastic and has been very well franked. But, he has never run in a fast run race such as those at Cheltenham, never run at Cheltenham (has he run at an undulating track?) and never run in a Championship race of any description. He is also by a sire whose stock generally get worse with age. For me, he has a lot still to prove.

I go along with Trackside in that 6s for Binocular is an outstanding bet. I don't believe he was fully fit last March, and that mistake clearly won't be made again. He has reportedly strengthened up massively over the summer, and will no doubt shorten when he wins the Boylesports!
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He's hacked-up twice at Punchestown, Hamm, so no issues about handling an undulating track.

It's true that he's never encountered a genuinely, breakneck pace.................but if that happens in the Champion Hurdle, he will just use his abundant stamina to stay with them, and quicken clear at the business-end.

He is bombproof.
 
He's clearly not bullet proof - the answer to the question of who is the best horse he has beaten (to date) should tell you that.

I like the horse, but the hype and as a consequence, his price are all wrong.
 
Wasn't Binocular favourite for the Champion around this time last year? He had achieved considerably less than Hurricane Fly has. I personally think there is very little hype around HF in comparison to the stuff that went around for Binocular last year and probably right now as well.
 
You must be talking about Quevega, yes?

Or perhaps you mean Go Native?

The horse is both bomb and bulletproof! :D
 
Galileo said:
I personally think there is very little hype around HF in comparison to the stuff that went around for Binocular last year and probably right now as well.
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Only because he hasn't run at Cheltenham or Aintree. His price is surely short enough though.
 
Galileo said:
Wasn't Binocular favourite for the Champion around this time last year? He had achieved considerably less than Hurricane Fly has. I personally think there is very little hype around HF in comparison to the stuff that went around for Binocular last year and probably right now as well.
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He had achieved considerably more. He had finished second in the Supreme Novices as a 4 year old, and perhaps could and should have won if ridden a little differently. He then went on to post a wildly impressive victory in the 4 year old Aintree hurdle over Celestial Halo, the Triumph winner.

He ran in 2 Championship races, second in one, winning the other beating the Triumph winner with ease. That, to me at least, is more impressive than winning mid season races, which are not run at the same pace or intensity as Cheltenham or Aintree.
 
Hamm said:
He had achieved considerably more. He had finished second in the Supreme Novices as a 4 year old, and perhaps could and should have won if ridden a little differently. He then went on to post a wildly impressive victory in the 4 year old Aintree hurdle over Celestial Halo, the Triumph winner.

He ran in 2 Championship races, second in one, winning the other beating the Triumph winner with ease. That, to me at least, is more impressive than winning mid season races, which are not run at the same pace or intensity as Cheltenham or Aintree.
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He lost to Captain Cee Bee on merit on the day...could have should have....but he did not. Captain Cee Bee then went and lost at Aintree. His defeat of Celestial Halo at Aintree looks good on paper but in reality we all now Celestial Halo could probably be a Stayer's Hurdle horse if tried in it - so a defeat of him on a sharp two mile trip is not that noteworthy.

He got beat in last season's Champion Hurdle (again lots of should haves or could haves) behind an admirable but beatable horse in the shape of Punjabi with the likes of Crack Away Jac and Muirhead not beaten that far.

Hurricane Fly has not just beat but absolutely hammered Go Native (Supreme winner) on each occasion - the second being off an interupted preparation and a horrific passage through the race. He has won in excess of two miles, so a strongly run race should suit (his Leopardstown success was run at a fine gallop) - handles all types of ground.

Yes he has something to prove, all novices do, but he has less to prove than most - everything about him suggests he is a Champion and he is in great hands. I could see why some would not want to back him at the price, but I couldn't oppose him.
 
So, by your reckoning, finishing second to a Supreme Novices winner in receipt of 8lbs in weight, is better form than hammering a Supreme Novices winner an effortless ten lengths twice?

How did you figure that one out?
 
8 pounds is weight for age. It is not receiving weight.

Championship events are where it counts.

Kempes and Riverside Theatre also beat Go Native that day. You are grasping at straws if you are taking that form literally; it just doesn't add up as Go Native's true running.
 
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