The Champion Hurdle 2010

Bobbyjo said:
Back from the track, and was very taken by Solwhit today. Had to take the initiative off a slow enough pace and, as Luke rightly says, he'll definitely favour the stronger pace at Chelt. When Davy asked him for an effort, he pulled away from Sublimity who is really suited by the track at Leopardstown - although could have done without the rain. I don't think Solwhit was all out and I'd be far keener on his chances now than I was before.

He's got a real chance in an open year
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Pretty much my view. Really pleased to see Russell give him a good positive ride when it became apparent that there wasn't going to be much pace on (surprised me as I assumed Muirhead would make the running).

Really liked the way the horse quickened when Russell gave him a couple of slaps as well.
 
The Christmas Hurdle doesn't appear to ahve been a great race. I admit they looked to be going a good pace on TV, with Straw Bear seemingly there to set things up for Binocular, but the time works out just 1lb better than Novice winner Menorah, which went into that race with an OR of just 129. The latter's winning RPR of 153+ would be good enough to earn a place in an average Supreme Novices' Hurdle but it still doesn't make Go Native - on time alone - any better than when winning that very race last season.

Also, the proximity of Cape Tribulation was an immediate source of concern when watching the race unfold at the weekend. He was off just 145 but it should also be noted that he ended last season's festivals on 155. Beaten 6¼ lengths here, he was closer by the fraction to Zaynar over further at Cheltenham but Zaynar ended up winning going away and would have to be fancied to see off the Kempton principals on that line. The down side for fans of Zaynar is that he looked to be struggling with half a mile to go at Cheltenham and might not have the speed for the Champion Hurdle.

On balance, I still think Celestial Halo is the one to beat.
 
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Celestial Halo has no form for anyone to label him to one to beat unless they are talking through their pocket.

He had his perfect conditions at Cheltenham last time, with his one serious rival massively unfit and was still well beaten by an outsider.
 
Indeed, I cannot see what makes Celestial Halo the one to beat considering he has been beaten in all the major two mile races since his Triumph Hurdle success.
 
Hamm said:
Celestial Halo has no form for anyone to label him to one to beat unless they are talking through their pocket.
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How can you say that. Celestial Halo is a proven Festival horse. He won the triumph and as a 5yr old was beaten a neck in a champion hurdle.I think it's perfectly reasonable to take the view that what ever finishes in front of him will win.............and Zaynar will have a nice view of his ass;) .
 
In his Triumph he beat Franchoek - that form isn't worth a pinch of salt.

Yes, he ran well at the Festival last year.

Other than that, he was absolutely destroyed by Binocular last year, similar story at Aintree, beat poor handicappers on his debut, and was stuffed by a 12/1 shot in the race which had the perfect profile for him.

When exactly is he going to win a decent race? :)
 
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Desert Orchid said:
The Christmas Hurdle doesn't appear to ahve been a great race. I admit they looked to be going a good pace on TV, with Straw Bear seemingly there to set things up for Binocular, but the time works out just 1lb better than Novice winner Menorah, which went into that race with an OR of just 129. The latter's winning RPR of 153+ would be good enough to earn a place in an average Supreme Novices' Hurdle but it still doesn't make Go Native - on time alone - any better than when winning that very race last season.

Also, the proximity of Cape Tribulation was an immediate source of concern when watching the race unfold at the weekend. He was off just 145 but it should also be noted that he ended last season's festivals on 155. Beaten 6¼ lengths here, he was closer by the fraction to Zaynar over further at Cheltenham but Zaynar ended up winning going away and would have to be fancied to see off the Kempton principals on that line. The down side for fans of Zaynar is that he looked to be struggling with half a mile to go at Cheltenham and might not have the speed for the Champion Hurdle.

On balance, I still think Celestial Halo is the one to beat.
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basically in the Christmas Hurdle they went fast enough for the winner to have recorded a very decent time figure..this didn't happen..so the race itself is ok as a measuring stick.....which tells us none of those taking part will be good enough to win a CH ... by some way
 
davidjohnson said:
Some people are still overrating the Wincanton form. Where is Mamlook?
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Mamlook hasn't been out.

The third horse that day, Whiteoak - reportedly fancied on the day - came out and beat a 6/4f by seven lengths easing down. That appears to have gone largely unnoticed.

Blue Bajan, 6lbs and 30 lengths behind CH was less than 9 lengths (at level weights) behind Go Native in the Fighting Fifth.

OK, so I'm cherrypicking with Blue Bajan but it can hardly be called a negative.

What I'm saying is that there appear to be fewer holes in CH's form than in the form of the other 'contenders'.
 
There aren't really any holes in Zaynar - he's unbeaten, he's done everything they've asked of him and last years Juveniles appear to be a decent bunch.

Go Native is 3/4 this season - one below par run but he's won twice at the top level since.

I'd say the two above have fewer holes in them than Celestial Halo - I wouldn't wnat to put any money on him until I've seen him win NTO that's for sure.
 
The case for Dunguib at least being tested in open company before they rule out a Champion Hurdle bid has never been stronger. The 31 on Betfair just has to be too big.
 
Hamm said:
In his Triumph he beat Franchoek - that form isn't worth a pinch of salt.

Yes, he ran well at the Festival last year.

Other than that, he was absolutely destroyed by Binocular last year, similar story at Aintree, beat poor handicappers on his debut, and was stuffed by a 12/1 shot in the race which had the perfect profile for him.

When exactly is he going to win a decent race? :)
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He beat franchoek well, what else can he do. There is no point in looking at any other races when it comes to festival horses other than the festival. Ch is very much in the mould of hardy eustace. The course is made for him and what ever wins will have a tough time getting past him.
 
Zaynar looks very good, but to me there is every chance he could sulk or run extremely lazily in a hard run Champion Hurdle when dropped back to two miles. That would put me off backing him but not respecting him.
 
Irish Stamp said:
There aren't really any holes in Zaynar - he's unbeaten, he's done everything they've asked of him and last years Juveniles appear to be a decent bunch.

Go Native is 3/4 this season - one below par run but he's won twice at the top level since.

I'd say the two above have fewer holes in them than Celestial Halo - I wouldn't wnat to put any money on him until I've seen him win NTO that's for sure.
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The big hole in Zaynar's form is that he looked to be struggling to beat Cape Tribulation at the two-mile mark at Cheltenham.

Go Native's holes are that his two wins have come in highly unsatisfactory races.

I accept that CH's most recent run is unsatisfactory in terms of my own peace of mind. However, My immediate reaction was that he hadn't run to form and I remain convinced he didn't. No doubt after his next win they'll explain this defeat away :rolleyes:
 
davidjohnson said:
Some people are still overrating the Wincanton form. Where is Mamlook?
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Forget the Wincanton form; last year's Champion form entitles the principles that day (with the possible exception of Binocular based on his displays thusfar this season) to be as able to claim the mantra of standard-setters as any in this division (not that the mantra is particularly relevant this year).

The likes of Zaynar, Solwhit and Go Native (and Hurricane Fly please God) have it to prove that they can better that level of form. As much as any of those have promised to run to that level of form, they have yet to prove it concretely by a long chalk.
 
trackside528 said:
The likes of Zaynar, Solwhit and Go Native (and Hurricane Fly please God) have it to prove that they can better that level of form. As much as any of those have promised to run to that level of form, they have yet to prove it concretely by a long chalk.
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I think they've all bettered it already.
 
trackside528 said:
last year's Champion form entitles the principles that day to be as able to claim the mantra of standard-setters as any in this division (not that the mantra is particularly relevant this year).
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Wouldn't disagree with that necessarily. But by that notion, that would make Punjabi the ONE to beat then, not Celestial Halo surely? There isn't a one to beat in the CH this year. It's very open and deserves to be a 5/1 the field race with various pro's and cons about the whole field. Can't understand why anyone would want a bet in the race at present given the prices on offer.
 
davidjohnson said:
Wouldn't disagree with that necessarily. But by that notion, that would make Punjabi the ONE to beat then, not Celestial Halo surely? There isn't a one to beat in the CH this year. It's very open and deserves to be a 5/1 the field race with various pro's and cons about the whole field. Can't understand why anyone would want a bet in the race at present given the prices on offer.
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agree completely..its very much like last year..Punjabi hiding his ability until the big day..could be any one of 5 or 6 punjabi's this year..maybe more

i wonder if we could have Jan-Mar improver somewhere that isn't even on the radar yet..its that sort of year
 
There could be a monster in the novice division. If the trials keep adding up to nothing the chances of Dunguib running have to be getting stronger. The champion hurdle picture was far clearer after betting opened than it is now.
 
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