The Champion Hurdle 2010

Gearoid said:
Is Muirhead not a very good mark ove course and distance on this ground? I would also expect him to improve for the run.
Click to expand...

I quite like Muirhead. He tried to make all in wretched ground. If anyone has excuses it's probably him. The fact that HF was unable to get past him after Muirhead had done all of the donkey work suggests to me there will never be very much between Muirhead and HF.
 
Hurricane Fly will prove to be far superior to Muirhead by the end of the season (if not by Christmas) and both HF and Solwith will prove to be right in the mix for the Champion Hurdle. Better ground, better gallop and a fit horse and I think we will see a completely different Hurricane Fly (albeit we will need to) who was far from knocked around today - do not een think he was shown the whip.
 
If the three of them head for the Christmas hurdle Hurricane Fly is likely to have everything in his favour and will have no excuses. The ground on the inside course is usually better than the rest of the course if my memory is correct.
 
Solwith is a possible for Newcastle in a couple of weeks and Hurricane Fly is a possible for the next Cheltenham meeting.
 
Galileo said:
Hurricane Fly will prove to be far superior to Muirhead by the end of the season (if not by Christmas) and both HF and Solwith will prove to be right in the mix for the Champion Hurdle. Better ground, better gallop and a fit horse and I think we will see a completely different Hurricane Fly (albeit we will need to) who was far from knocked around today - do not een think he was shown the whip.
Click to expand...

I think you're underestimating Muirhead, but overestimating these upcomers as a group. You're in good company though, the the market's been doing the same.

HF may well eventually prove better than Muirhead, but I don't expect there will ever be much in it.

Making HF pre-season favourite for the Champion Hurdle now looks plain daft, as several warned earlier in this thread.
 
I've now had a chance to look more closely at the Elite Hurdle last week.

First, the times suggest conditions were fast in spite of the overnight rain. The current RP standards are much slower than the old Standard Times (which I use) so it wouldn't be unusual for races to be faster than the current standards. However, it is unusual for officially good-to-soft ground to produce times faster than the old Standards.

Master Somerville, Celestial Halo, Red Admiral and Ellerslie George all beat the old Standards.

The chase course appears to have been considerably faster than the hurdles course.

As for Celestial Halo, he ran 37lbs faster than Pepe Simo and 22lbs faster than Amber Brook. He was entitled to do that. However, he did do it very easily and Nicholls is still insisting he will improve a lot.

On bare times, I have CH on 164 for last week. That's a pound higher than I had given him in the Champion Hurdle. I went conservative in my Champion figures because it wasn't a great time and because Muirhead and Crack Away Jack weren't beaten far.

Realistically, I think CH could have won by a further three lengths minimum last week, which would put him on 167. If Nicholls thinks he can improve a lot, it isn't hard to envisage him bettering 170 at Cheltenham in March. I don't think there's a 170 hurdler about these days at the minimum trip. Katchit was 166 in 2008, Sublimity was 168 in 2007, Brave Inca 169 in 2006, and Hardy Eustace 168 in 2005.

What are the chances of anything overtaking Celestial Halo? I'm going in again at 8/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
What are the chances of anything overtaking Celestial Halo? I'm going in again at 8/1.
Click to expand...

I think the biggest danger was if HF turned into a superstar. That might still happen given better underfoot conditions but it's less likely now - he's still worth covering with. Binocular still has a lot to prove and how many Champion Hurdlers have won the race after being beaten in two previous Festival appearances?
 
SteveM said:
The trainer also said he was ready for a run and would do himself justice, which is presumably why he was odds on.
Click to expand...

Hurricane Fly was put in at odds-on because his form was perceived to be stronger/he was perceived to have more scope for improvement than the other principles, not because of some notion that there was maximum confidence behind him today.

The market told it's own tale about the confidence behind the principles today, and I'd trust the market far more than I'd trust mundane trainer quotes any day of the week myself.
 
My reaction from last year's champion hurdle was that CH was too slow for the Champion hurdle and I still stand by this opinion. I would be very very surprised if he is good enough.
 
Galileo said:
Horse was at his least impressive last year on his debut and Mullins is one trainer that will not have him near fully primmed first time out - all the quotes beforehand that I read suggested the horse was just about ready to run with improvement to come.
Click to expand...


Mullins on ATR today was anything but over confident on HF's chances. Said he would come on greatly for it
 
Im shocked how forgiving everyone is abourt Hurricane Fly today including ATR. The horse was hammered by a seriously good animal and nothing in the formbook entitles him to reverse form with Solwit without improving a stone at least.
 
Correction - he was hammered by two horses - one of which he looked to be cantering over only to tire.

If Solwith comfortably beat HF into second with Muirhead back in third then as a HF supporter I would be worried. But next time (as you said) will tell us much more.....Mullins is also not one to make excuses and he seemed pretty happy with his run.
 
As a HF supporter I would be seriously worried anyway. Solwhit was much much too good today . He is the big danger to Binocular for me .

I am sure HF will come on for the run but he will as hell need to .

Couldn't just help thinking - bubble burst.
 
Everyone seems to be forgetting the current champ Punjabi.

Already has the scalp of Binocular and Celestial Halo (I agree with previous poster, he is too slow for the Champ) and only went down by a short head to Solwhit in the Irish Champion.

The current champ and in my opinion the current value.
 
Zaynar's good enough for me at this stage; I'm amazed no-one has mentioned him in terms of being a worthy contender. He is unbeaten over hurdles and is guaranteed to get the trip, which always helps! He also very much has a touch of class and even hitting the odd flat spot during his races has't stopped him winning so far.
 
Punjabi is a very good horse but I feel they know at henderson's that Binocular is the better horse.
 
Euronymous said:
I think the biggest danger was if HF turned into a superstar. That might still happen given better underfoot conditions but it's less likely now - he's still worth covering with. Binocular still has a lot to prove and how many Champion Hurdlers have won the race after being beaten in two previous Festival appearances?
Click to expand...

Is there no way Solwith is a superstar?

I agree that Celestial Halo is the bet at this stage.
 
Galileo said:
Correction - he was hammered by two horses - one of which he looked to be cantering over only to tire.

If Solwith comfortably beat HF into second with Muirhead back in third then as a HF supporter I would be worried. But next time (as you said) will tell us much more.....Mullins is also not one to make excuses and he seemed pretty happy with his run.
Click to expand...

I respect your opinion on this subject but you would be the first to admit going into the Royal Bond and after it Cousin Vinny was way ahead of HF in the pecking order in Mullins stable. His rave reviews are based on beating Go Native by miles last year, he still has a lot to prove and Im struggling to take positives from his run today.
 
Solwit looks made for a Champion Hurdle to me. If were not trained by a gangster he would get more respect.
 
Back
Top