The Champion Hurdle 2010

I'm not sure Granger - looking at his previous form I'd say it's probably something to do with the ground.

Think I'm right in saying that The Hurricane has been gelded over the summer, would it be possible that this has had a negative effect on him?
 
Hurricane Fly was reported as a gelding on the Irish entry sheet on 27/12/08. Given that he'd run at Fairyhouse just a month before then, I think the likelihood is that he was gelded in the summer of 2008.
 
Gearoid said:
I think looking at the drift as representing Hurricane Fly not being fully wound up is dangerous. You have to respect the Byrnes money because they so rarely get it wrong. I think the money for him was on the basis that Soltwit is the better horse and the rest of the season will prove it right.
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Spot on.
 
SteveM said:
He was still an odds-on favorite. Which suggests he should have won this doing hand stands.

I can't see how HF stands a chance aginst the likes of Binocular, Punjabi or Celestial Halo. Maybe he is better than we saw today, but not good enough, surely.
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Agree. People on here and in the media seemed to assume he had already made the improvement to warrant him being a 5/2 shot for the Champion, which was absurd (as I argued at length earlier in the thread).

He may well improve but he hasn't shown the necessary level of form so far and yesterday wasn't exactly an indication it's forthcoming.

It seems to me there are excuses being made as opposed to looking at the formbook and what happened in the race yesterday.
 
Well if we are to accept Binocular was “undercooked” or unfit for his Champion Hurdle last March – then I think Hurricane Fly at the very least deserves the same benefit of the doubt in heavy ground on his debut when his trainer stated before the race that he would improve considerably for the run – as is the norm for the yard’s horses.
 
Charles Byrne was interviewed for this morning's sports report on RTE radio. He reckoned Hurricane Fly's form from last year was dodgy and their's had the proven solid form going into the race.
 
Undercooked with a neck and a head to find or undercooked with 8/9 lengths to find. I know which one I'd rather have on side.
 
Hamm said:
Agree. People on here and in the media seemed to assume he had already made the improvement to warrant him being a 5/2 shot for the Champion, which was absurd (as I argued at length earlier in the thread).

He may well improve but he hasn't shown the necessary level of form so far and yesterday wasn't exactly an indication it's forthcoming.

It seems to me there are excuses being made as opposed to looking at the formbook and what happened in the race yesterday.
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What did happen formbook-wise yesterday? Solwhit beat De Valira 8 lengths, that's what.

As far as yesterday's race is concerned, the formbook either tells you that BOTH Hurricane Fly and Solwhit aren't good enough to even place in a Champion Hurdle, or that the race needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. You can't have it both ways.

If you subscribe to the theory that Solwhit was showing Champion Hurdle level form yesterday, then Hurricane Fly supporters are entitled to be happy with their lot, given their horse has run to a high-150 rating on his first run out of novice company, on ground which probably suited the winner better.

For me, it's not a race I would want to draw too many conclusions from. Hurricane Fly seems to be being written off based more on his Champion Hurdle price on Sunday morning, rather than what has actually happened on the track on Sunday afternoon.
 
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A lad I know has an in with the Mullins yard and a few of his horses on Sunday were a long way from being fit and HF was just one of them. I'd take the Morgiana with a pinch of salt. They didn't look to go a great pace and I was actually interested in seeing how Muirhead went as I think he could run into a place at a big price come March. It would not have been ideal for Muirhead to lead so can't imagine Carberry went too quick which ties up with the fact that DeValira has some toe and might be why he was there eight lenghts behind in the end. I think the race has done nothing but prove that Solwhit and HF are good horses and we will need to see a little more before we make up our minds. With Celestial Halo doing well so far, Punjabi being the champ, Zaynar and Binocular to come out and the potential for a handicapper to come out of somewhere, the Champion hurdle has a really nice look to it at the moment.
 
Grasshopper said:
If you subscribe to the theory that Solwhit was showing Champion Hurdle level form yesterday, then Hurricane Fly supporters are entitled to be happy with their lot, given their horse has run to a high-150 rating on his first run out of novice company, on ground which probably suited the winner better.
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I never said he showed CH form yesterday, but that I agree with Gearoid in that he will show over the season he is the better horse.
 
He should be written off on his current price too, which at 4/1 in places, still doesnt make sense

Connections might have been happy enouigh HF, but were there expectations the same as those who have proclaimed him the new Istabraq (or whatever)?
 
Hamm said:
I never said he showed CH form yesterday, but that I agree with Gearoid in that he will show over the season he is the better horse.
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Based on what though, Hamm? Yesterday's race? My issue is that yesterday's race hasn't really told us anything we didn't know before - other than the fact that Hurricane Fly is not Pegasus, which few people believed was the case anyway.

Previous track evidence had already proven that Solwhit is the better horse by a half-stone minimum. Yesterday's race merely confirmed it, rather than it being some kind of revelation.

Two things seem to have happened after the race. Firstly, some seem to be reviewing the HF novice form, and seeing it in a much duller light than before. Two, some seem to think that HF's improvement is now at an end. Others still appear to have combined those views, and have written him off as a genuine Champion Hurdle contender.

These people may ultimately be proved correct - I just think it's dangerous to adopt such positions, on the strength of yesterday's race.
 
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On all known form, GH. Solwhit has much better form in the book than HF, and beat him easily yesterday.
 
Hamm said:
On all known form, GH. Solwhit has much better form in the book than HF, and beat him easily yesterday.
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Who is arguing with that, Hamm? Not me.

My point is we knew before yesterday's race that Solwhit had the better form. In fact, Hurrciane Fly was technically not entitled to finish so close to Solwhit yesterday, on all previous form.

Why then, do some appear to think that yesterday's race has been some kind of revelation??
 
I took 16's in April for Solwhit after seeing him at Aintree, having taken a close interest in him last season - even though I don't follow hurdlers as a rule. The ratings I have given him for the past year have been consistently high on all sorts of going, so I am loth to ignore him.
 
Grasshopper said:
Who is arguing with that, Hamm? Not me.

My point is we knew before yesterday's race that Solwhit had the better form. In fact, Hurrciane Fly was technically not entitled to finish so close to Solwhit yesterday, on all previous form.

Why then, do some appear to think that yesterday's race has been some kind of revelation??
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GH,

We had an (enjoyable) debate earlier in this thread where you told me HF was bomb proof, bullet proof etc - you were far from alone in that opinion (hence the pricing up of the Champion Hurdle prior to yesterday's race). Strange now you say yesterday way expected!
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by clivex
By a short head on ground which is the heaviest Punjabi has run on

Confirming that Solwhit, on a similar conditions to yesterday is right up there with the very best.
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Confirms that the rpice for HF looks a bit silly compared with the price for Punjabi.

How ground dependent is Solwhit? Has to be a doubt that he will get what he wants at cheltenham surely
 
Hamm said:
GH,

We had an (enjoyable) debate earlier in this thread where you told me HF was bomb proof, bullet proof etc - you were far from alone in that opinion (hence the pricing up of the Champion Hurdle prior to yesterday's race). Strange now you say yesterday way expected!
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Where have I said yesterday's result was expected?

I confess to some mild disappointment that he couldn't finish in front, but the relative odds of HF and Solwhit yesterday showed no respect for their actual chances. The race was priced-up much like the Champion Hurdle itself - based on HF's promise alone, rather than racecourse evidence to date.

As far as the Champion Hurdle is concerned, clearly terms like "bullet-proof" etc have a certain obvious bombast to them, but they are more fun than "I think horse X has a good chance".

This thread is all about the road to the Champion Hurdle. That road was almost certain to have a few minor bumps along the way, and Hurricane Fly hit one yesterday. But his wagon has not careered off the road, and ended upside-down in a ditch.

There is a long way to go until Cheltenham. The road isn't necessarily any steeper, just because Hurricane Fly got turned-over yesterday. For me, it merely provided confirmation on the degree of the slope.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Zaynar's good enough for me at this stage; I'm amazed no-one has mentioned him in terms of being a worthy contender. He is unbeaten over hurdles and is guaranteed to get the trip, which always helps! He also very much has a touch of class and even hitting the odd flat spot during his races has't stopped him winning so far.
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Yes, Zaynar is the potential horse but last year's 4yos were a good bunch and he would need to improve a lot more than Walk On, Mourad and others to set him far enough apart from them. Factor in the relative rarity of 5yos - and I backed Katchit - winning the champion and I'd say Zaynar is one to be wary of rather than one to be confident about. For me, Celestial Halo this season has posted a level of form that would win most Champion Hurdles.
 
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