The Champion Hurdle 2010

The Morgiana is fast becoming one of my favourite races in the NH calendar. Always seems to provoke a lot of discussion, with Sizing Europe last and now Hurricane Fly/Solwhit this year.

I certainly wouldn't be giving up on Hurricane Fly after that performance yesterday. Given that he raced a shade freely virtually throughout and the Mullins horses do tend to come on from their first run of the season, he ran a perfectly adequate race. What was most encouraging was that he travelled as well as in any of his races last year until the last only to tire on the run-in. As was pointed out earlier (by Gal I think) he only beat Donna's Palm a neck in last year's Royal Bond (again on heavy ground) on his seasonal debut (despite being strong in the market that day), so there is every chance he will improve significantly from yesterday.

That said, Solwhit was mightily impressive yesterday and may very well turn out to be the better horse. The Champion Hurde should suit him down to the ground as well.

How would we price up a Solwhit-Hurricane Fly rematch in the (Leopardstown) Christmas Hurdle?
 
He'll need to improve in the region of 8/9 lengths though won't he, yet he's currently the same price or shorter than others who are already bordering on Champion Hurdle class.
 
Agreed, David. I think I suggested 10lbs improvement necessary at the end of last season. The question is; can he find that much?

Despite being marginally disappointed yesterday, the race doesn't really help answer the above question. On one reading, Hurricane Fly has been readily defeated and still has around 10lbs to find, and on another, he has something like 6-7lbs to find, and could therefore technically be said to have improved. In my view, Hurricane Fly's Champion Hurdle chances have not diminished on the back of this defeat, nor have they improved - they have remained more or less static, because the race is not one to draw too many firm conclusions from.

His pre-race odds for the Champion Hurdle is altogether another matter, and I'm on record as saying I couldn't have backed him at the price.

Agree with tracks that the Morgiana has only increased the intrigue surrounding the Champion Hurdle, and we can expect to have lashings more fun discussing it over the next four months.
 
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can someone tell me what the ground was for the Prix Alain du Breil (Hurdle) (Grade 1) that hurricane finished 2nd and 2 lengths ahead of Quevega. It is described as very soft by RP yet in timeform it is good to soft can anyone explain this????????
 
Punjabi under-rated by the market................as he has been ever since he was second in the Totesport Trophy a couple of seasons back.
 
Shadow Leader said:
Zaynar's good enough for me at this stage; I'm amazed no-one has mentioned him in terms of being a worthy contender. He is unbeaten over hurdles and is guaranteed to get the trip, which always helps! He also very much has a touch of class and even hitting the odd flat spot during his races has't stopped him winning so far.
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I think he's got a decent chance of improving. Similarly rated to Hurricane Fly after their respective novice seasons, but the difference for me is 4 fold:

1. Zaynar is more lightly raced over hurdles (3 runs) than Hurricane Fly (7 runs) which should mean hopefully more improvement in Henderson's horse.
2. Zaynar has proven he runs well at Cheltenham
3. Price - Zaynar 12/1; Hurricane Fly 4/1 - makes no sense.
4. Breeding - Montjeu's generally don't progress well and that would be a worry when considering whether or not to back Hurricane fly.
 
Galileo said:
The same reason Binocular is far shorter than Punjabi and indeed Celestial Halo.
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Binocular was short of work prior to last year's CH. Henderson apparently is sure which is their better horse, and if you don't want to take his word for it, look at the demolition job Binocular did on Celestial Halo at Ascot (& Aintree the season before).
 
I would think Celestial Halo is a far better horse at Cheltenham than at Ascot and certainly at Aintree. His Aintree run was also at the back end of a NH season that followed on from his flat season.

It is like what Grasshopper says - Punjabi is not the "sexy" horse that Binocular and co are and that is the main reason for the price difference. It is not just that Hurricane Fly is the only short one in relation to the defending Champ.
 
Gearoid said:
Im shocked how forgiving everyone is abourt Hurricane Fly today including ATR. The horse was hammered by a seriously good animal and nothing in the formbook entitles him to reverse form with Solwit without improving a stone at least.
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I've been less than forgiving. :)

He'll perhaps reverse form with Muirhead and Solwhit, but that is so far off from being favourite for the Champion Hurdle that I hardly know where to start.
 
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Narrowing the Field said:
Everyone seems to be forgetting the current champ Punjabi.
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I've not forgotten him... He was the one I put up at this time last year at 33/1. I still think it's between Punjabi, Binocular and Celestial Halo this time, as already mentioned.

If pushed at this stage I'd go for Binocular this time.
 
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I think the way the market is, this could be a good ante post opportunity. These horses could meet a few times during the season. I keeping coming back to what McCoy said to me in March......Binocular will next year. He said the same about Brave Inca!! The only nagging doubt is his record at Cheltenham but he went too soon in the Supreme and wasn't spot last March.
 
Cantoris

If you spoke to Ruby Walsh, what do you think he would say? The trouble with jockeys is they can only tell you about their own mounts, not someone elses.
 
I thought Nicholls's comment the other day could be quite telling and I certainly took it as a positive.

Bearing in mind the word coming out of the yard at the time was that Azertyuiop would beat all the established hurdlers, they still went chasing with him. Same with all the other top hurdlers from the yard. He said the other day CH could be hurdling for a few years because he's so good. I reckon if he genuinely thought there was something better around he'd have CH preparing for the Arkle this year.
 
Nicholls is about the worst tipster amongst trainers.

I would take what he said as a negative, considering his past tipping record.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I thought Nicholls's comment the other day could be quite telling and I certainly took it as a positive.

Bearing in mind the word coming out of the yard at the time was that Azertyuiop would beat all the established hurdlers, they still went chasing with him. Same with all the other top hurdlers from the yard. He said the other day CH could be hurdling for a few years because he's so good. I reckon if he genuinely thought there was something better around he'd have CH preparing for the Arkle this year.
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I'd go along with that reasoning. He looks an ideal chasing type, but they have every reason to be bullish about Celestial Halo's Champion Hurdle prospects (irrespective of what Nicholls says or thinks, which is not necessarily the same thing).
 
Zaynar is entered in the Ascot Hurdle - could they be thinking of the World Hurdle instead for him ?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I thought Nicholls's comment the other day could be quite telling and I certainly took it as a positive.

Bearing in mind the word coming out of the yard at the time was that Azertyuiop would beat all the established hurdlers, they still went chasing with him. Same with all the other top hurdlers from the yard. He said the other day CH could be hurdling for a few years because he's so good. I reckon if he genuinely thought there was something better around he'd have CH preparing for the Arkle this year.
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Azertyuiop wasn't a top, top class hurdler by a long stretch - he won 1 of 5 hurdle races with Nicholls, and was unplaced in 3 of the other 4.

I'd be wary of anything spoken by Nicholls.
 
Ardross said:
Zaynar is entered in the Ascot Hurdle - could they be thinking of the World Hurdle instead for him ?
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I'd be surprised. The Ascot Hurdle often used as a starting point for CH aspirants, so I don't see anything 'sinister' in the entry.
 
People are underestimating the progress Solwhit has made---- he has won 7/9 hurdle races the last 3 of which have been G1. His trainer decided to stay away from Cheltenham last year as he felt he needed more time before he took on the "big boys'. He is very well regarded by Topspeed and was 8lbs clear of Hurricane Fly prior to yesterday.
He now heads for the bonus races---- Newcastle--Kempton and Cheltenham---- he will probably pick up the Irish Champion en route. The layers have it right now--- March will be between Solwhit and Binocular.
 
Would say I'm 99% sure that it's the owners idea to run at Ascot for whatever reason ie. they did the same thing last year when they sponsored a race on the card (not checked if they have done something similar this year)
 
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