The Clinton Affair

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SlimChance

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Just came across this documentary on the History Channel. It's told from Monica Lewinsky's perspective. Well worth watching what it's like when the US government goes after you to get at a president outside of the remit of their investigation.

Of course thankfully this could never happen again...
 
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Mueller's terms of reference aren't outside of any remit as they have a specific 'catch all' clause that allows them to go to "any matters that arose or may arise directly from the investigation". This means that if they discover money laundering as an example, they can prosecute that, as by any definition it's a 'high crime or misdemeanour'

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3726381/Robert-Mueller-Special-Counsel-Russia.pdf

The provision for the court of federal regulations 600.4 is also fairly clear

There's actually more hypocrisy on the side of the Republicans here, notably the likes of Gingrich, Guiliani, McConnell, and perversely it would appear, Brett Kavanagh. They were all happy to support Kenneth Starr back in the day when he couldn't find anything related to Whitewater but found stuff related to Paula Jones. Ironically, the case of Jones v Clinton is now a precedent that allows for the possible deposition of Trump over the Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougall cases. With David Pecker and Michael Cohen having already testified and corroborated each other (and we don't know what Alan Wieselberg has said) it's going to get difficult for Trump when three of his own witnesses have turned evidence on him.

Also worth noting of course is the Michael Flynn plea document where Mueller has redacted two completely new crimes that he's uncovered. We haven't got a clue what these are? They've been completely blanked out. All we know is that they exist

We might however take a few guesses

About two weeks ago Trump completed the submission of his written answers to Mueller's questions. Very shortly afterwards it was announced that Manafort had broken the terms of his deal and that Mueller was voiding it, and Cohen was rushed into court to plead guilty. We have to assume that Trump has submitted false statements that combinations of Flynn, Cohen, Manafort (and what would be fatal for Trump - Wieselberg) have contradicted. The timeline fits.

There's also a suspicion that Mueller knew that Manafort was still communicating indirectly with the White House and Mueller's played him. Effectively Mueller's been selling Manafort a dummy which he's sent back to Trump, and Trump's walked right into it, thinking he was out-smarting Mueller. We'll see.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/28/600.4
 
You're taking me too literally. Both of these investigations have the same goal, a partisan hack to bring down a president.
 
That was certainly the case with the Starr enquiry. Id be less convinced its the case with Mueller, but can easily accept that commentators and a lot of politicians are attaching that characteristic to it. I've not really seen the evidence to suggest that Mueller himself is, he has indeed questioned whether or not a sitting President can even be indicted, amidst signs that he's more likely to write a critical report and then leave it up to congress. The greater exposure is probably on the Trump family (including golden Ivanka). There reaches a point where he keeps finding guilty people dotted all around Trump. This is a pattern now, and it can no longer be explained away by coincidence. At the very least its symptomatic of chronic misjudgement on the part of Trump, or incredible bad luck that he seems to have surrounded himself with so many criminals.
 
SlimChance said:
You're taking me too literally. Both of these investigations have the same goal, a partisan hack to bring down a president.
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If you are referring to Bob Mueller as a partisan hack, you don't know ****. Just stick to being a degenerate gambler.
 
SlimChance said:
Just came across this documentary on the History Channel. It's told from Monica Lewinsky's perspective. Well worth watching what it's like when the US government goes after you to get at a president outside of the remit of their investigation.

Of course thankfully this could never happen again...
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Exactly. Always easy for people who have never suffered an injustice in their life to scorn at those who have. The same people probably didn't find it funny when Nelson Mandela was locked up or when Maradona screwed England over with the hand of God in The World Cup!
 
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brendanr said:
If you are referring to Bob Mueller as a partisan hack, you don't know ****. Just stick to being a degenerate gambler.
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Can you tell me the political afiliation of the Muller team please? If you need help google "democratic hacks".
 
The only degenerate gambler is Bob Mueller. He gambled on opening door 2 because there is no key to door one and he came up with Flynn, Manafort and Trumps lawyer.

Nothing there about Russia because there is no Russia but clearly crimes were committed Mueller caught them so he has done his job...not his fault Trump is innocent of any real wrongdoing....that we know about.

But the Clinton affair, Monika...wasn't me said Bill..I was only getting away for a break 15 times on the Lolita Express, the Clinton Foundation's money for Haiti simply disappearing and nothing got done, Russian bribes to Bill while Hillary sets up a deal simultaneously , Benghazi wasn't us killing Gadaffi and causing havoc it was a video, I handed over all my emails, except a few a wiped with a cloth..33,fookin thousand off them,

The Clinton's walk free with their millions while protected by people like Comey and Lynch while others who say they care about America like Polosi, Schumer, Schiff CNN MSNBC are in cahoots defending them and attacking Trump for having a wandering **** and telling politcal fibs.....The fuchers better known as the Clinton should be wiped of the face of the earth and half the democratic party with them
 
The documentary is well worth watching. It's funny to see people like James Carville lose his **** on Larry King about partisan hacks. These days he makes his coin calling for Trump to be impeached for erm being Trump.
 
The people usually dwelling on the pity and failure of others are usually full of failure and need much pity themselves.
 
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Marble said:
The people usually dwelling on the pity and failure of others are usually full of failure and need much pity themselves.
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Basically describes the anti-Trunp movement. I'd love to see one of them go and get elected president.
 
Trump is taking the troops out of Syria. Where is the media reporting of this? Oh wait it's the standard hack job because thou shalt not give the president any credit.
 
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If you want an opinion of someone that actually knows what he's talking about go listen to Victor Davis Hanson. He is no Trump apologist for what he says but is a massive believer in his policies. In 50 years people will talk about Trump nullifying every single thing Obama did in 8 years and he will be a nothing president. I see beauty in that the rest of you see RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA.
 
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SlimChance said:
Trump is taking the troops out of Syria. Where is the media reporting of this? Oh wait it's the standard hack job because thou shalt not give the president any credit.
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On the front page of the BBC's website.

Along with quotes from Russia that they are delighted about it as it gives them a free hand in the area.
 
The media will have to spin it the nareative that If Putin agrees then it must be wrong. This decision will be very popular with the American people. Expect his approval rating to go up on the back of this.
 
SlimChance said:
In 50 years people will talk about Trump nullifying every single thing Obama did in 8 years and he will be a nothing president. I see beauty in that the rest of you see RUSSIA RUSSIA RUSSIA.
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Our hero may have been hacked by The Donald? Slim - blink twice if you need me to come and rescue you.
 
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SlimChance said:
The media will have to spin it the nareative that If Putin agrees then it must be wrong. This decision will be very popular with the American people. Expect his approval rating to go up on the back of this.
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Expect his approval rating to remain more or less where it is and always has been. His approval rating is hard baked into the system

Also the analysts who are linking this as a victory for Putin are probably looking in the wrong direction. This decision clears the way for Turkey to occupy the border area and clear the YPG back. The Kurds (who Trump once said had been very badly treated and let down etc) will be the victims.

So why is Trump crawling to Turkey you might ask? Well because the Saudi's pull his strings, and the Turks also have the Saudi's in a tight spot right now. This is a deal. Stop embarrassing the Saudi's and I'll let you do what ever the hell you like to the Kurds

Also this decision blindsided everyone, and 48 hours after Michael Flynn's sentencing was deferred with a US judge telling him that he'd "sold his country out" and that he could legitimately be considered as treason. Flynn you'll remember transpired to be acting as an undeclared foreign agent (Trump put him in charge of National Security!). But who was acting on behalf of? Turkey. Flynn's sentencing has been deferred whilst he is allowed to reflect on whether there is anything else he feels he ought to perhaps be sharing with the authorities. Is there any business links involving Turkey, or could Turkey themselves leak some damaging information which puts Trump in the crosshairs? Who knows

My instinct however is that this isn't a Putin thing, but instead it routes through Turkey and is all about Trump trying to protect Mohammed Bin Salman. Ironic to see the American President crawling and apologising for the cradle of Wahhabism isn't it. Go on Donald say it again so we can all laugh "radical Islamic terror"
 
Well it was widely reported that Trump had taken this decision unilaterally. There isn't even a segment on Fox that suggested it that anyone has found yet. So why did Trump take this decision without any consultation?

It seems to have proven a step to far for his Defence Secretary anyway who 24 hrs after Trump announced America's retreat seems to have agreed to a parting of ways in February

Edit - Actually, I've just read Mattis's resignation letter. I don't know how Trump can possibly spin this as anything other than Mattis saying I've had enough of working for you.

Whose left from the originals now? Ben Carson, Betsy de Vos and Steve Mnuchin? He only employs the best and the brightest ... urm ​
 
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Warbler said:
Well it was widely reported that Trump had taken this decision unilaterally. There isn't even a segment on Fox that suggested it that anyone has found yet. So why did Trump take this decision without any consultation?

It seems to have proven a step to far for his Defence Secretary anyway who 24 hrs after Trump announced America's retreat seems to have agreed to a parting of ways in February

Edit - Actually, I've just read Mattis's resignation letter. I don't know how Trump can possibly spin this as anything other than Mattis saying I've had enough of working for you.

Whose left from the originals now? Ben Carson, Betsy de Vos and Steve Mnuchin? He only employs the best and the brightest ... urm ​
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I'm happy to bet Trump's approval rating goes up. The media will spin it as if Puntin says that it's good than it Must be bad. This will be wildly popular with progressives on the left I'm a buyer of Trump's approval rating.
 
How long for and when?

Trump's RCP average has been locked between 37% and 43% throughout his Presidency. And a big part of that is Rasmussen throwing in a favourable one every week. He's now got to contend with the fact that his well respected Defence Secretary has quit because of this decision too. Mattis is some sort of God to the US Marine Corps. For every one he might gain, he's going to be losing one as well. Even if Trump goes from 39% approval to 41% for a period of 2 weeks, it doesn't change anything

Trump has a ceiling and a floor. A massive majority of votes in 2020 are already locked in. Trump operates in a narrow band. His base can't win him an election. He needs the habitual Republican voters too. If they begin to drift off, he'll lose. Even Fox are starting to place a few hedges on him now. The relationship was always transactional anyway.

America is going to be facing an economic deterioration in 2020. Trump is going to be very vulnerable to that as well.

There is an index which has been spot on for predicting recessions on 11 out of the last 11 since the war (I think it's 11?). That concerns the spread in yields between 2y and 10y US bond. When they converge, or even invert, a recession has followed within 12-18 months (every single time). They haven't quite 'kissed' yet, but they've been puckering up to each other for 3 months now. Last time I checked the gap was something like 0.2%

His best hope right now is the Democrats finding a lousy candidate

He's also got 17 legal actions/ life enquiries going on into him at the moment as well, and some of them look pretty damn good. Even Fox's house legal expert says they've likely sealed an indictment against him already

The Senators to watch are going to be Romney, as he's capable of providing a totem that McCain couldn't, and then the likes of Rubio, Sasse, Kennedy and Burr. These will be the sort of bell weather ones I reckon. When they begin failing to speak up in support of Trump he slides a little closer to the trap door
 
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