The Derby 2008

Its not often I agree with Clive but in this case I do! Its very unlikely we will see Henry at any trip other than a mile (possibly 10furlongs).
 
Sorry I wasn't suggesting that for a second ,what I meant was that he obviously shows so much ability on the gallops at home that the staff have been speculating tongue in cheek about his ability.
 
As per my post on another thread, according to ATR Ceefax, O'Brien is veering towards a run in the Derby for Henry - and I guess he has the right Jockey to ride him at Epsom!

I am no breeding expert, and though Kingmambo's tend to be milers, the dam's side offers some hope he may stay a mile and a half, being by Sadler's Wells.

The way he stayed the trip at Newmarket also lends some hope to the theory he might make up into a Derby winner - New Approach took absolutely NO prisoners, and yet Murtagh came through smoothly to nail him close home - hardly the performance of a doubtful stayer.
 
I think if Henry were to go for the Derby then the Irish Guineas would surely be out of the question. He would not want a hard race with NA again so close to the Derby.

I think the 12F of the Derby will prove too far for Henry.
 
Henry has absolutely no chance whatsoever of getting the 12f at Epsom, I can't think what Coolmore are playing at. I'd be very surprised if he stays 10f.
 
Can you go into detail Ven? I would have thought there'd be at least a small chance based on some of the family?

What did Willoughby have to say on the subject today?
 
Well, Kingmambo's very best offspring have generally been milers, and Henry's full sister, Queen Cleopatra, was best at a mile, although she wasn't disgraced when tried over 10f.

Henry's 2-y-o career, highlighted by his Coventry Stakes win, is indicative of a horse whose main asset is speed rather than stamina. His style of running in the Guineas was not that of a horse who might fancy a longer trip.

His female line is a high class one, but has predominantly produced horses suited by distances of around mile or less, the best of them being the champion Silent Screen, who I think never won beyond a mile.
 
Henrys full sis was beaten a lenght and a half over 1m2.5f in the Prix de Diane Hermes (Group 1). Henrys dam was beaten 1.75 lenghts in the Irish oaks. The question is with his sire Kingmambo who although is undoubtedly more an influence for speed has had top horses who get the 12f like El condor pasa, Alkassed and rule of Law. On breeding it's anyones guess whether he could get it. On running style I also think their could be 20 different arguements. I believe he gets 10f easy but I doubt he could get 12.
 
Thanks Ven. Would you expect another Kingmambo, Thewayyouare, to get the Derby trip given that he has the likes of Peeping Fawn, Rags To Riches and Jazil in his family or would you have worries?
 
It's hard to be dogmatic, but he has a decent chance of getting it. Don't bet the house on it though.

Peeping Fawn, of course, is by Danehill, who famously imparts "neutral" stamina genes to his offspring and she was a genuine 12f performer, so you could say that TWUA's dam passes on "12f stamina genes" if you like (admittedly on the evidence of a sample size of one). That must give him a chance.
 
I wouldn't be as dogmatic as Ven, although I know less than he does.

That said, I think he looks to be a 10f max horse, on breeding and running style.

That said, it almost worked with Hawk Wing, and maybe there is no High Chapparal in this year's field.
 
In my opinion, regardless of breeding and on that front it is inconclusive, i feel that the turn of foot he showed in the Guineas is enough evidence to suggest that he is a proper miler and 1m1/2 might just be a stretch. If indeed the early pace in the guineas was not that fast then the fact that he was still able to come from where he came from illustrates tremndous speed and i maybe wrong but if a horse has such speed it is unlikely he will also stay. But hey what do i know, if J Murtagh and A P O Brien both think the horse is a derby horse they are probably right!!
 
I think it would be a shame if they ran him in it, it would be a return to the time when Coolmore ran horses like King Of Kings, Second Empire, etc who were clearly unlikely to get the trip. They have been "sensible" with their Guineas horses such as George and Rock Of Gibraltar and I hope (and expect) them to leave him to the shorter trips.
 
Thanks for the analysis Ven. I think - on what we've seen so far - that the Derby is short on horses with a real touch of class this year; and those that might have that bit of class tend to be doubtful stayers to some extent.

I'm wondering if Thewayyouare - if he's actually aimed at Epsom - might be one with that little bit of class to make up for any stamina deficiencies against a substandard field.
 
I dont think Coolmore are being stupid by aiming Henry at the Derby. As has been already said, with Sadler's Wells in the maternal line, there is a reasonable chance he could stay. He didn't seem to be stopping in the Guineas, and that race was once described as the best Derby trial.

Coolmore have nothing to lose going for the Derby and everything to gain - I recall Adjal proving a non-stayer at Epsom and then reverting to sprint distances to become a champion sprinter. He was actually beaten in two Guineas beforehand. At least Henry is a Guineas winner.

As for Kingmambo, again I will point out I am no expert, but how how many of his most well known progeny have stamina in abundance on the dam's side? Surely Coolmore should be commended for having a go at least, as till now the Derby had no real superstars in the line up.
 
Watch out for Washington irving or Winchester (or both) to turn the Derby market on its head after they run in Leopardstown on Sunday.
 
Winchester does not have a Derby entry , but could give a form boost to Moonstone.
 
I liked the look of that Dr Freemantle - and if he can handle Chester he can probably handle Epsom
I haven't been able to get at all excited about this year's Derby yet, I need a horse to latch onto!
Maybe I'll pick this one :D Being girly, I love the Abdullah colours too LOL

It seems he might be Leger horse too, acc Channel 4
 
Hard to know. I mean he's improved on anything else he's ever done, but that's not saying much.
 
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