The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

With the weather forecast for Epsom im mind, surely the bet these days is STS and not F&G. There will be time to trade it later if needed.
 
LBM said:
With the weather forecast for Epsom im mind, surely the bet these days is STS and not F&G. There will be time to trade it later if needed.
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I don't think I'd be thinking of backing STS at any stage. He probably won't stay the trip (at least not as well as most of the others) and his own trainer thinks that he's only 50-50 to get it. Oxx has also said he'd have no qualms about pulling him out of the race if the going isn't right.

I love the colt and had a good each-way bet on him for the Guineas at 10s and 9s, but he makes limited appeal to me here. I'd like to see him at up to around 10 furlongs then I'd be having another go at him.
 
I think he will stay the trip.
I couldn´t care less about what Oxx says. He also said that he would be happy if STS would finish in the first four before the 2000gn or that Rayeni was not a G1 horse. Unlike other trainers that are always considering their horses in good form and they are alway happy with them , Oxx tends to be very pesimist about his chances.
 
Sea The Stars will definitely prefer the ground better than it was at Newmarket, he was feeling it there and despite of that he won decisively. I would be more worried if the ground was good to firm than good to soft and he has a jockey that knows how to win a Derby. I would be disappointed with Oxx if he were to withdraw the horse and doubt that he will. Come the day, with a top class horse thats won a Guineas and will stay at least ten and probably twelve furlongs would I wait for The St James Palace if I had a great chance in The Derby? Nu uh.
 
My face fell when i read Oxxs comments this morning but as LBM says, he makes Roger charlton look like Clive Brittain

STS looked every inch a middle distance horse winning the guineas to me. Which is some achievement in itself of course.

Everyone bangs on about the breeding but whilst Urban Sea hasnt seemingly given much stamina, is that simply because we are judging from too few offspring? She got the distance herself of course...isnt that more significant ?

Just asking....
 
My influence here is bigger than I thought, you remember tips I did 3 months ago, well done.

When I say canter, I was thinking in something like Authorized did, not a Slip Anchor nce.
 
I don't believe for a second that Sea The Stars will be inconvenienced by track, trip or going at Epsom. He's hardly the most blinding value of all time, but looks pretty solid to me.
 
Sea The Stars vs Fame And Glory reminds me a bit of Galileo vs Golan. Like Golan, Sea The Stars will probably get the trip fair enough his class should see him get a place, but Fame And Glory, like Galileo, will be far too suited to 12 furlongs and readily out point him in the final furlong.
 
Galileo said:
Sea The Stars vs Fame And Glory reminds me a bit of Galileo vs Golan. Like Golan, Sea The Stars will probably get the trip fair enough his class should see him get a place, but Fame And Glory, like Galileo, will be far too suited to 12 furlongs and readily out point him in the final furlong.
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Well, Mr Galileo, we'll Sea -- not this time, methinks.
Sea the Stars is more than a place horse -- possibly a Barca, in fact!
 
clivex said:
Everyone bangs on about the breeding but whilst Urban Sea hasnt seemingly given much stamina, is that simply because we are judging from too few offspring? She got the distance herself of course...isnt that more significant ?
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Funnily enough I was looking through them earlier today and they all did pretty well. Albeit, most were by stallions who would be more of a stamina influence than Cape Cross, but we can only work with what we have:

Urban Ocean (by Bering) - won a conditions race over 12f, but was stuffed in the Irish Derby and Hardwicke. Got 10f fine but was later tried over 14f (reckon he had a problem by then - his last few runs were pretty abysmal).

Milikah (by Lammtarra) - 3rd in the Oaks and 2nd in the Irish Oaks. Got the trip (was closing in the Oaks, and staying on in the Irish Oaks).

Galileo (by Sadlers Wells) - Derby, Irish Derby, King George winner.

Black Sam Bellamy (by Sadlers Wells) - won an Italian Group 1 over 12f, close up in the Coronation Cup, even given a shot at the Gold Cup.

All Too Beautiful (by Sadlers Wells) - 2nd in the Oaks, outclassed and outstayed by a certain Cape Cross from a stoutly-bred family...

My Typhoon (by Giants Causeway) - raced entirely in America so we never saw her over the trip. Ran a decent race over 11f at the Breeders Cup, probably didn't quite get the trip when beaten by a certain Cape Cross from a stoutly-bred family...

Cherry Hinton (by Green Desert) - 5th in Light Shift's Oaks.

When you look at Urban Sea's pedigree, it looks to this layman's eyes like a classic stout German family (I'd love crazyhorse or another of our German experts to step in here!).

So let's put the question the other way around - if Cape Cross was ever to have a Derby winner, wouldn't Urban Sea be the dam you'd want to send to him?
 
Cherry Hinton (regardless of it being her highest rating etc) did not stay 12 furlongs at Epsom. Just was ridden from miles off the pace and just passed tiring horse without doing anything herself.
 
As I typed that I thought the same to myself!! But I backed her on the day and felt had she been ridden at all competitively she would not have finished so close.

She was dropped right back in trip on her next two runs as well.

RP got the comment right for her in the Oaks:

"Held up in rear, 13th straight, good headway and edged left over 2f out, no impression last 2f "
 
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With the same proviso as mentioned for the Oaks ratings;

Fame and Glory = 102.05 on +2.64 (Derrinstown)
Sea The Stars = 101.76 on +3.27 (2000 Gns)
Golden Sword = 100.94 on +3.65 (Chs Vase)
Gan Amhras = 99.51 on +3.27 (2000 Gns)
Rip Van Winkle = 99.26 on +3.27 (2000 Gns)
Masterofthehorse = 98.94 on +3.65 (Chs vase)
Fame and Glory = 98.23 on +0.25 (Ballysax)
Black Bear Island = 97.11 on +1.07 (Dante)
Freemantle = 97.05 on +1.07 (Dante)
South Eater = 95.94 on +3.12 (Dee Stks)
Kite Wood = 95.11 on +1.07 (Dante)
Black Bear Island = 92.64 on -0.84 (Prix force)
Crowded House = 92.61 on +1.07 (Dante)
Age of Aquarius = 86.11~ on +3.53 (Lingfield)
 
Go watch it yourself, she was going nowhere in the last 2 furlongs.....just that because she was ridden so conservatively early on she managed to finish fifth. Much like Virginia Waters did in her Oaks attempt.

Urban Ocean did not get 12 furlongs either.
 
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LBM said:
I think he will stay the trip.
I couldn´t care less about what Oxx says. He also said that he would be happy if STS would finish in the first four before the 2000gn or that Rayeni was not a G1 horse. Unlike other trainers that are always considering their horses in good form and they are alway happy with them , Oxx tends to be very pesimist about his chances.
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True he does... however, I also think he'll not fully stay, so he won't be on my mind for this.
 
clivex said:
My face fell when i read Oxxs comments this morning but as LBM says, he makes Roger charlton look like Clive Brittain

STS looked every inch a middle distance horse winning the guineas to me. Which is some achievement in itself of course.

Everyone bangs on about the breeding but whilst Urban Sea hasnt seemingly given much stamina, is that simply because we are judging from too few offspring? She got the distance herself of course...isnt that more significant ?

Just asking....
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The dam side isn't the weak part of the pedigree in terms of stamina influence.

The sire side is in question. Although Cape Cross has thrown up some staying types, he is not a prepotent influence (aptitude is determined by those that are prepotent) and as Gareth and others have already said those out of Urban Sea that stay are by much more consistent sires at getting a trip for their progeny.
 
Songsheet said:
Hate the title of this thread.... should be 'The Derby' - and nothing else!
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Quite right. 'The Derby' happens to be run at Epsom, but the Derby is the Derby pure simple and without qualification. The other Derbies are a reflection of the original.

You would expect a thread called the Epsom Derby to be on a US site as our American cousins don't quite get it.
 
* John Oxx says Wednesday's newspaper reports casting doubt over Sea The Stars' Derby participation were overblown. Says the 2000 Guineas winner has been pleasing him at home since Newmarket, and is bang on course for Epsom.
 
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