The Derby & Irish Derby 2009

Any idea who the O'Brien jockeys will be, and in what order they will be given a choice/selected?

Obviously Murtagh, Heffernan and O'Donoghue. Other possibles would be Shanahan, Spencer (if no Crowded House), Moore.

Care to hazard a guess and an order/jockey for each one?
 
The Curragh is on the same day so that would probably rule out Smullen, Berry & McDonagh, all of whom rode for Ballydoyle in the 2007 Derby.

Lordin might be one of them.
 
I would expect Rip Van Winkle to sparkle in his work, but then he is likely to if working with Derby horses over a trip short of a mile and a half. I would not expect him to not get a mile and a half in a top race. Also it maybe that the final important bits of work are not until the middle of next week, or around 10days before the main target.
 
Betfair:

Rip - 6.6
Gan Amhras 10.5

And there is this general phallacy that Betfair punters are clued up and the market is generally right. To quote the old lady on the Catherine Tate Show - What a load of old shit.

6.6 at this stage about RVW is the worst price i`ve seen on any Derby horse since Rodrigo De Triano was 13/2 fav in 1992.
 
As much as I despise Bolger, Gan Amhras is an obscene price. He's surely going to benefit from the step up in trip as much as, if not more than Sea The Stars.

I wouldn't back it at the moment though, simply because I don't trust Bolger.

Rip just reminds me of Horatio Nelson, terrible price. Hopefully without the same fate though obviously.
 
Euronymous said:
Betfair:

Rip - 6.6
Gan Amhras 10.5

And there is this general phallacy that Betfair punters are clued up and the market is generally right. To quote the old lady on the Catherine Tate Show - What a load of old shit.

6.6 at this stage about RVW is the worst price i`ve seen on any Derby horse since Rodrigo De Triano was 13/2 fav in 1992.
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RVW was the better horse in the Guineas when you consider he had to run around GA and had passed him just after the line. Whats more RVW had an interupted preparation for the race as well for the whole week before hand.

Trip is obviously an issue for RVW but I can see why RVW is fancied.....either way don't be complaining if you fancy a horse and the price is too big!!
 
Galileo said:
Trip is obviously an issue for RVW but I can see why RVW is fancied.....either way don't be complaining if you fancy a horse and the price is too big!!
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Gan Amhras`s price has sort of settled in the last ten days or so. It`s Fame and Glory who`s drifting now. I just don`t understand it because the number 1 jockey at Ballydoyle has a history of riding the wrong one at Epsom.

I also think the Ballydoyle runners coming on for their first run thing is so prominent in the media that it`s now being overbet.
 
Murtagh as good as confirmed on RTE if all goes well with their work next week that he will ride Rip Van Winkle...said he had a real soft spot for the horse.
 
Galileo said:
Murtagh as good as confirmed on RTE if all goes well with their work next week that he will ride Rip Van Winkle...said he had a real soft spot for the horse.
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He also added that he would have to let his head rule his heart when making his decision, which suggests to me he intends to stay with Fame. However, the way things are going I wouldn't mind him choosing Rip as I think Fame is a straightforward winner for any half decent jockey.
 
SteveM said:
He also added that he would have to let his head rule his heart when making his decision, which suggests to me he intends to stay with Fame. However, the way things are going I wouldn't mind him choosing Rip as I think Fame is a straightforward winner for any half decent jockey.
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The interview on RTE TV virutally confirmed that all being well he will be riding Rip Van Winkle. The tone and esteem he holds the horse was clear....odds on he rides RVW all being well (which is an if as the horse has had problems with his feet again since the Guineas).
 
SteveM said:
However, the way things are going I wouldn't mind him choosing Rip as I think Fame is a straightforward winner for any half decent jockey.
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His price is gonna hold up as well. Has this been the biggest ever gap between the Dante and the Derby. Three and half weeks:confused: It`s too much.
 
beardo said:
I cant help but feel RVW is turning into another One Cool Cat overhyped and no substance to it.
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Its been a while since they have had a horse that they have touted up that has not delivered. The horse did finish on the tails of Sea The Stars and Gan Amhras and had Mastercraftsman beat in Newmarket and at Leopardstown last year he hammered Cuis Ghaire (Group 1 filly) on just his second outing. Plenty of substance to his name already.

My doubt is about him handling the track (Epsom) and the distance. I thought he got unbalanced in the dip at Newmarket.
 
Fair point but cant help but feeling this horse is going to burn a lot of peoples fingers over and over again. His Derby price is shocking!
 
I'm not a big RVW fan either, but Gal's opinion on Ballydoyle horses is always to be respected. I see the Derby being between STS and F&G - though I would love to see BBI do it for Sadlers Wells, his last chance of siring the Derby winner
 
He will have more chances Headstrong. His last crop was born last year and holds around 20 colts.

Interesting to see some support for C. House on Betfair lately. I hope he takes his chance.

I must admit I have changed my mind about F&G and I no longer think he is the best form available. It is getting a little bit crowded for me at the top of the pecking order, so I am happy to lay off my previous bet and wait for some inspiration closer to the day of the race.
 
Thanks LMB - I'd sort of forgotten that SW sired a few that year - I'd been going on his last full year as a semi-public stallion. I presume the 20 are all from Coolmore mares?
 
Galileo said:
Its been a while since they have had a horse that they have touted up that has not delivered. The horse did finish on the tails of Sea The Stars and Gan Amhras and had Mastercraftsman beat in Newmarket and at Leopardstown last year he hammered Cuis Ghaire (Group 1 filly) on just his second outing. Plenty of substance to his name already.

My doubt is about him handling the track (Epsom) and the distance. I thought he got unbalanced in the dip at Newmarket.
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There is definitely not enough substance to his name to come anywhere near to warrant his current price. He beat a filly under 1 1/2 lengths who was nowhere near her top form under 2 lengths receiving 3 pounds.

He finished 7th in the Dewhurst.

He came fourth in the Guineas, all out with a cosy winner value for much more than the official margin of 2 1/2 lengths.

He does not look in any way as he will benefit from a step up in trip, unlike say Gan Amhras.

At the moment, he is a hype horse, and I imagine if he doesn't win the Derby, the excuse rolled out will be 'he has too much speed' ;)
 
Hamm said:
There is definitely not enough substance to his name to come anywhere near to warrant his current price. He beat a filly under 1 1/2 lengths who was nowhere near her top form under 2 lengths receiving 3 pounds.

He finished 7th in the Dewhurst.

He came fourth in the Guineas, all out with a cosy winner value for much more than the official margin of 2 1/2 lengths.

He does not look in any way as he will benefit from a step up in trip, unlike say Gan Amhras.

At the moment, he is a hype horse, and I imagine if he doesn't win the Derby, the excuse rolled out will be 'he has too much speed' ;)
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In truth Hamm you were calling him a 33/1 shot for the Guineas so you underestimated him then and continue to do so. You take absolutely every negative stance possible with the horse. Comments like "all out in the Guineas" failing to comment on him closing on everything all the way to the line (which I would have thought would be quite important in the context of him stepping up in trip), failed to mention his interupted preparation all week with a stone bruise etc.

Of course the horse is going to improve for the a step up in trip, the question is weither its 10 furlongs or 12 furlongs.

What price should he be for the Derby?
 
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I am taking a negative stance as he was hyped for the Dewhurst and failed, hyped for the Guineas and failed, and he is being hyped for the Derby. Of course he has a chance if he runs (all horses do), but there needs to be a balancing out beyond what is read in the media and posted here about RVW.

He didn't look to me in the Guineas like he needed much, if any extra distance, and certainly not an extra half mile.

I just find it frustrating, as I did before the Dewhurst and Guineas, why so much attention and words are used on a horse purely because his trainer reckons he has amazing 'natural speed' as opposed to horses who deserve it.

Double figures for the Derby. I think Ballydoyle have several better contenders (F&G, BBI and Freemantle).

And if I had backed another horse, I wouldn't be in the slightest worried about any supposed excellent gallops - as someone pointed out above (Steve?), of course he will look good on the gallops against true mile and a half horses.
 
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