The Derby Sat June 5th 2021

This topic is cruel and unusual punishment!

Although in fairness, not much else to keep us occupied these days.
 
Tanlic said:
would have thought a lot more than the 115 entries
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It does seem lower than usual but these are the remainder of those entered as yearlings. Some owners/trainers don't participate at that stage. It would be a surprise if extra entries are not made in April/May.
 
Relieved to see High Definition listed. He's already heavily involved in my ante-post log for the Flat season, at 12/1 for the race.
 
reet hard said:
'Tis the premier race on the UK calendar, and one in which you've expressed an interest, in times past.:ninja:
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1. You're having a :lol:.
2. Good luck finding any evidence of me expressing an interest in the Derby, since Dr Devious won it. The Arc maybe, but that's once every 8 years.

:thumbsup:
 
I love the Guineas and the big Summer Festivals. The Arc and Champions Day are two of the top seven race days of the whole year for me (the others being the whole of Cheltenham and the first day of the Royal Meeting) but the Derby has become a yawnfest recently. It might become interesting again when Galileo's last 3yos become 4 (please God that's not too long in the future)
 
2021 Derby

It's still a couple of months off but not without interest with the Ballysax having taken place yesterday and other important trials on the horizon.

My first dabble in the ante-post market was to take 12/1 High Definition in late September, on the morning of the Beresford in anticipation of an easy win. I would probably need to watch that race again but my memory of it is thinking that he wasn't off an inch, so unnecessarily far back was he in the early stages, only for him to sweep round the field up the straight to lead close home. It wasn't an easy win but it but it probably should have been.

I have since had a nibble at stablemate Cleveland at 25s but that's really just following Timeform's anticipation of a good run in something like the Chester Vase. I'm happy to have these types onside early by way of snaffling some possible value.
 
Do you think High Definition will get 12f? Realise that stamina isn't always necessary at Epsom. Because he's by Galileo people seem to check the stamina box but plenty of Galileos are more suited to 8f or 10f.
 
His dosage suggests he'll be very suited by the trip: [FONT=&quot]DP = 5-2-21-14-0 (42) DI = 0.71 CD = -0.05[/FONT]
 
Thought Sir Lamorak was the most impressive performer over the weekend and had an interest for the Derby after his handicap win.
 
This pandemic must be doing strange things to me. I find myself trying to 'get into' the Derby this far in advance. This is very unlike me.

Anyway I've had a look at the trial at Sandown tomorrow. It should be informative but whether it will provide the winner of the big race is another matter. Would I be right in thinking that Sharahstani is the last horses to do the double?

That said, good horses have won it: Sakhee, Fantastic Light, Pentire, Old Vic, etc, but we're still going back twenty years and more.

I'm fascinated that Godolphin run three, though. Guineas favourite One Ruler is highly unlikely to stay the trip at Epsom so I presume they're trying to see exactly what they have in their armoury with the three they run here and no doubt they will be well-represented in the other trials.

Trawlerman (Gosdens) wears the first colours (at least the jockey does) so is he already thought better than Yibir and Adayar? Both of these are guaranteed to stay - perhaps even need - the Derby trip. Trawlerman should be good for it too.

I checked the Newmarket race last week dominated by two Godolphins, Highland Avenue and Secret Protector, and the Newbury race won by Hurricane Lane. All three put up smart performances on my figures but don't hold Derby entries so I presume tomorrow's threesome are deemed better candidates. If so, it would give Godolphin quite a strong hand of contenders likely to be capable of running to at least 115, often good enough for a minor place in an ordinary renewal.

So far, the shells AOB has fired over here haven't exactly sent shockwaves through the market. It remains to be seen what the Navarone-esque ones can do.
 
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Eleanora Duse said:
Was surprised that no-one rated his Alenquer's performance in the Classic Trial. Should be suited by a bit further and is obviously tough.
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I liked the Appleby colt from that race who was 2nd. Did extremely well to finish where he did given where he was positioned.
 
I took the biggest prices going ante-post for the Derby for the two Godolphins ahead of that race, half-expecting one of them to win. I thought it was a decent enough trial but haven't had the chance to evaluate it yet.

One of the Godolphins shortened from 50s to less than 20s on the back of it so I've got that one onside. The other didn't change. I might look to lay off or cash out the mover.

As for Mohaafeth, I've just watched the race and checked the result. I think Haggas was right to keep a lid on expectations afterwards. I don't believe the Godolphin hotpot ran his race. He was struggling too far out for it to have been his form and the time was nothing special. Mohaafeth was rated 92 going into the race (cf 107 for the Godolphin), hence my focusing on the Ascot handicaps.

As an aside, it fascinates me that people entrenched in racing can have such an eye for a horse. Haggas said he thought the colt was a Derby horse when he asked Sheikh H to go and look at him as a yearling. I look at a horse and I see four legs, two ears, a tail and money flying out the window.
 
Desert Orchid said:
As for Mohaafeth, I've just watched the race and checked the result. I think Haggas was right to keep a lid on expectations afterwards. I don't believe the Godolphin hotpot ran his race. He was struggling too far out for it to have been his form and the time was nothing special. Mohaafeth was rated 92 going into the race (cf 107 for the Godolphin), hence my focusing on the Ascot handicaps.
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Easy to pick holes in the race for sure.

Time will tell how he copes at Epsom if he lines up. Others will have stronger form for sure going in.
 
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