The Derby Sat June 5th 2021

I'm pretty sure after the race Appleby was quoted as saying he won't go to Epsom. I checked at Betfair to see if I could lay it off and it was showing something like 18 but by the time I clicked through it was nearer 200.

Anyway, you back these hoping to have a few 10-20/1 shots on board at 50-66/1 knowing some won't get there. Right now it looks like none of mine are getting there!

I'm still very hopeful of a big return from my Mother Earth (25/1)/Santa Barbara (8/1) double.

Trainer Charlie Appleby said of*the runner-up: "Adayar has gained some more experience and was well clear of the third and is a possible for the Derby. We'll see how Hurricane Lane fares in the Dante next week before we finalise plans."

Can see them swerving it.
 
I have to say, it looks like the Derby is falling apart in front of our eyes.

With this in mind, I've taken a small poke at Gear Up at 40/1. I presume he'll run in the Dante (Johnston's only entry) and he's already got a decent level of form, having won the G1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud last back-end (10f, heavy) and should stay. He's already got the same RPR as Youth Spirit achieved yesterday and a nice run at York wouldn't do his chances any harm.

For good measure, I've doubled him with Dubai Fountain (14/1) in the Oaks.

(I'll copy this to the Longshot thread.)
 
Bolshoi Ballet a good winner in the Derrinstown.

What will Aidan run in the Dante now then....
 
Impressive by Bolshoi Ballet. 7-4 favourite now and looks the likely winner on that to me.
 
Did it nicely enough but it looked to me like today was the plan given how positively he was ridden. Has any other Coolmore been ridden so aggressively in a trial? He's run to within a pound or so with the third (rated 11lb higher, beat him 12lb) and I wouldn't be surprised if Lough Derg improves a lot.

Mac Swiney a tad disappointing but it was his seasonal debut and they will have left plenty to work on for next month.

I think I'd rather be a layer than a player at 7/4.
 
Had a small ew on Ace Aussie @ B365's 250/1 in anticipation of a big run today. 2nd to subsequent Guineas' winner, over this track in April, he's short priced fav today, entered for both Derbys, bred for the trip and worth the highlly speculative punt to opt for Epsom, at the price.
Down to 66/1 after today's run, when looking for all the world like a 12f horse.:)
 
Did it nicely enough but it looked to me like today was the plan given how positively he was ridden. Has any other Coolmore been ridden so aggressively in a trial? He's run to within a pound or so with the third (rated 11lb higher, beat him 12lb) and I wouldn't be surprised if Lough Derg improves a lot.

Mac Swiney a tad disappointing but it was his seasonal debut and they will have left plenty to work on for next month.

I think I'd rather be a layer than a player at 7/4.

That's a very harsh assement. The race was over at the mile pole. He destroyed them. No need for Aidan to run every Galileo in the yard now, that's the winner.
 
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I was really dissapointed with the run. He was supposedly working the house down the last two weeks.
As it was only the 5th run of his life, the distance and the way he was ridden, suggest the race was educational rather than a serious attempt on the prize, imo.
 
As it was only the 5th run of his life, the distance and the way he was ridden, suggest the race was educational rather than a serious attempt on the prize, imo.

You can trust me on this, they were there to win. The horse just couldn't get away with running over that short a distance. I suspect we'll see him in the Irish Derby.
 
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I backed Ace Aussie yesterday and was disappointed he couldn't pick them up.

However the last thing I thought (in spite of his breeding) was that he needed a step up in trip, DKW horse was stronger at the line having being passed by AA at the 1f pole.

He looks to have plenty of speed judging by his runs at 7f off a decent gallop.

He would be interesting in a Jersey Stakes.
 
Nah; he has 2 Derby entries, so connectioms clearly think him capable at 12f.
His half-brother (by Galileo) ran twice @ 14f btw.
 
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With a name like Ace Aussie, is it possible he's being aimed at the Melbourne Cup (in spite of all the brouhaha now surrounding it)? Are 3yos allowed to run in it?
 
He was a nr in the Tetrarch last Monday on account of the ground.

7f a month away from Epsom is hardly the ideal preparation for a Derby!

The dam of AA was a miler for David Wachman while her full sister Carribean Sunset took in the same preparation as Ace Aussie - she won both Guineas trials at 7f and on this same card 13 years ago at the mile.

They might take in the Irish Guineas next but the chances of going to Epsom are few and far between.
 
ACE AUSSIE
ped_i.gif
(IRE) b. C, 2018 {1-o} DP = 5-4-14-7-0 (30) DI = 1.14 CD = 0.23


Looks like a 10-12f horse on dosage.
 
Dante Dec's are in...

High Definition runs, but no Van Gogh.

At the same time Paddy and Betfair shorten Van Gogh into just 7s for the Derby.

His only other entry is in the Irish 2000 Guineas. I just wonder what his options are now.

If he goes to the Derby without another run beforehand then 7s now is a joke price. I'd rather wait until the day.
 
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Dante Dec's are in...

High Definition runs, but no Van Gogh.

At the same time Paddy and Betfair shorten Van Gogh into just 7s for the Derby.

His only other entry is in the Irish 2000 Guineas. I just wonder what his options are now.

If he goes to the Derby without another run beforehand then 7s now is a joke price. I'd rather wait until the day.

High Definition Blue across the board for the Derby!

https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/the-derby-2021/winner
 
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Nah; he has 2 Derby entries, so connectioms clearly think him capable at 12f.
His half-brother (by Galileo) ran twice @ 14f btw.

I’d say 10f at the most;

My Reasoning for that assumption is as follows:

The female line is equally as important when you're talking about stamina or lack of it.

Danehill, (Grandsire) has never been accredited the title, Chef De Race, and that’s despite many people calling for him to be so. To be a Chef, their offspring must show a propensity for at most; 2 aptitudinal groups. Danehill’s progeny are too evenly spread over the full spectrum. What they do show though, is a leaning towards what the tail line breeding influences.

Danehill Dancer, the son of Danehill and the Dam sire of Ace Aussie was a top-class 6/7 furlong horse. Queenscliff, the Dam of Ace Aussie only won up to a mile, her Dam, Bonheur, was a 6-furlong sprinter out of Royal Academy, himself a (Brilliant/intermediate Chef) top-class sprinter that didn’t quite get a mile. Bonheur’s Dam, Queen To Conquer was out of Kings Bishop, another Brilliant/intermediate Chef.

I’m not saying Danehill’s progeny can’t themselves produce horses with enough stamina to stay the Derby distance. Indeed not, take Dancing Rain (Mare, won the Oaks) for example, her Dam, Rain Flower was a daughter of Indian Ridge (intermediate sire) who is very much in the same mold as Royal Academy. The difference here though is, the big stamina influence running through the tail line from Alleged. You might say, but Alleged is not a Chef either, arhhh…Therein lies the importance of reading of the breeding, not just the scores on doors, or in this case, the Dosage. Alleged Has very high scores on his Professional aptitude and though this doesn't count in the overall Dosage index's of his subsequent offspring, he still sheers stamina right through them.

The Entire bottom half of Ace Aussie’s pedigree point’s to Intermediate Aptitude. I’d say he will be best at around a mile to 11 furlongs, and the faster the ground, the better.
 
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I was out most of the day and have only just caught up with the replays.

I thought the Dante was very interesting too.

Having only seen it the once and had a quick check over the full result, my immediate impressions are:

Hurricane Lane won't win the Derby - the form isn't good enough. He was marking the form for a stablemate or two.

Megallan likewise was marking the form.

High Definition will improve a stone for the run and the extra distance at Epsom. It was a very satisfactory return on the back of an unsatisfactory blood test.

Roman Empire will get a big sectional mark-up and could go well in the Derby off a saner pace.

Gear Up was slightly disappointing but it was his first run too and he'll improve for the run and the step up in trip. Still not without possibilities.

The rest can make their mark in handicaps...
 
The drift on High Definition I can only presume is down to a possible diversion to Chantilly as all things considered, I thought it was a highly promising return.
 
You think HD is quick enough? He ran like I thought he would, staying on. Even going up in trip, not sure he'll be quick enough.
 
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