The Derby
- Thread starter Bar the Bull
- Start date
Authorized’s OR has been raised 10lbs from the Dante to 126 and agreed with the French and Irish handicappers (subject to ratification at the IC).
Timeform has gone for a rating of 132, which gives him equal billing with Galileo and are Timeform's best Derby winners since Generous, who was given 135 in 1991.
Authorized's timefigure is the best in that period at 131, ahead of Commander in Chief who posted 130 in 1993.
Timeform has gone for a rating of 132, which gives him equal billing with Galileo and are Timeform's best Derby winners since Generous, who was given 135 in 1991.
Authorized's timefigure is the best in that period at 131, ahead of Commander in Chief who posted 130 in 1993.
prince regent
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most definity agree
[/b][/quote]
This is a meaningless statement. Motivator is a particular individual, Authorized another… you might as well say that Nashwan, High Chaparral, etc, etc (indeed any horse that subsequently cleaned up after the Derby) should be a warning to those who are writing off Authorized chances.
Authorized will be what he will be, not what another horse has been
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Walk in the Park or Eagle Mountain? Pretty obvious who the better Derby winner was.
prince regent
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very obvious
dont recall he had achived that much more before his derby so i dont see hes subsequent performences as a surprise
The point that nothing of earth-shattering ability finished behind Motivator in the Derby should not necessary detract from him winning the Derby well on the day.
The fact that he was just beaten in two subsequent Group 1s, by the same horse, probably says more about the ability of Oratorio than it does about the lack of ability of Motivator.
The fact that he was just beaten in two subsequent Group 1s, by the same horse, probably says more about the ability of Oratorio than it does about the lack of ability of Motivator.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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This is a meaningless statement. Motivator is a particular individual, Authorized another… you might as well say that Nashwan, High Chaparral, etc, etc (indeed any horse that subsequently cleaned up after the Derby) should be a warning to those who are writing off Authorized chances.
Authorized will be what he will be, not what another horse has been [/b][/quote]
Excellent reply, Steve.
I remain to be convinced that Authorized is as good as Galileo or High Chaparral. I didn't rate Motivator that highly so I don't mind comparing Authorized with him.
This is a meaningless statement. Motivator is a particular individual, Authorized another… [/b][/quote]
It isn't a meaningless statement. You've completely missed the point. In the same posting I drew attention to the remarkable similarities between Motivator and Authorized even down to the winning distances and the times. It is a statement of the bleeding obvious, as Basil Fawlty might have put it, that the two are different horses but my point is that, however, good Authorized might look at the moment - and I'm a big fan - he isn't in fact certain to carry all before him. From a virtually identical starting point, Motivator didn't. That's all.
Mordin's take on the Derby
YES, AUTHORIZED IS FAST, BUT ...
AUTHORIZED (42) is clearly an above average Derby winner judged by the time of the race. So it looks likely that he is going to end the run of losses suffered by the last four Derby winners in all their subsequent outings. However, I would urge some caution before anyone goes overboard and suggests he's now going to sweep all before him in the big middle-distance races against older horses.
Firstly, Authorized was ridden right out to the line in a strongly run race here. So this is clearly as fast as he can go, at least at the age he is now. And on my ratings that makes him look vulnerable to the very smart group of four year olds who are now in training across Europe. Remember, last year's crop of three year old middle distance colts was a truly exceptional one - at least according to my speed ratings. I can't recall ever seeing such strength in depth in the division. The best of them on my speed ratings are still in training. Namely Dylan Thomas, Lauro, Rail Link and Visindar. If Authorized can beat them then I'll start jumping on the bandwagon. But smart as he is, I think he's going to find it very hard to beat the best older horses.
The horses that chased Authorized home did so at a rather too respectable distance to be considered likely future Group 1 winners. The runner-up, Eagle Mountain (39), benefited from being held up a long way off the unusually searching early pace. I suspect he was basically gifted second place by horses that had tired after sitting too close to the testing gallop. He ran an okay time but is no certainty for the Irish Derby on this run. In fact I'd be surprised if something faster didn't turn up at the Curragh.
YES, AUTHORIZED IS FAST, BUT ...
AUTHORIZED (42) is clearly an above average Derby winner judged by the time of the race. So it looks likely that he is going to end the run of losses suffered by the last four Derby winners in all their subsequent outings. However, I would urge some caution before anyone goes overboard and suggests he's now going to sweep all before him in the big middle-distance races against older horses.
Firstly, Authorized was ridden right out to the line in a strongly run race here. So this is clearly as fast as he can go, at least at the age he is now. And on my ratings that makes him look vulnerable to the very smart group of four year olds who are now in training across Europe. Remember, last year's crop of three year old middle distance colts was a truly exceptional one - at least according to my speed ratings. I can't recall ever seeing such strength in depth in the division. The best of them on my speed ratings are still in training. Namely Dylan Thomas, Lauro, Rail Link and Visindar. If Authorized can beat them then I'll start jumping on the bandwagon. But smart as he is, I think he's going to find it very hard to beat the best older horses.
The horses that chased Authorized home did so at a rather too respectable distance to be considered likely future Group 1 winners. The runner-up, Eagle Mountain (39), benefited from being held up a long way off the unusually searching early pace. I suspect he was basically gifted second place by horses that had tired after sitting too close to the testing gallop. He ran an okay time but is no certainty for the Irish Derby on this run. In fact I'd be surprised if something faster didn't turn up at the Curragh.
Don't know if this is of any interest to anyone else,
i've been playing around with different Standard times/ different going allowances and have come up with ratings ranging from 124 - 132
I thought it was interesting that the low 124 matched EC1's figure and the high 132 matched Timeforms
i've been playing around with different Standard times/ different going allowances and have come up with ratings ranging from 124 - 132
I thought it was interesting that the low 124 matched EC1's figure and the high 132 matched Timeforms
Jamie
At the Start
Surely Sheikh Mo wouldn't want a Coolmore stallion standing at his stud after the fued he had with Magnier & co?
On the other side of the coin, he could have one of there stallions sons (A superb one at that) without dealing direct with Coolmore?
On the other side of the coin, he could have one of there stallions sons (A superb one at that) without dealing direct with Coolmore?
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Nonsense. Anyone remember how far Hector Protector finished behind Generous in 1991? Ten lengths maybe shrug::
Eagle Mountain was too far behind the pace, he had to use a lot of energy up just to get competitive. If he`d tracked the winner he would have finished another length and a half to two lengths in front of the third horse imo.
Nonsense. Anyone remember how far Hector Protector finished behind Generous in 1991? Ten lengths maybe shrug::
Eagle Mountain was too far behind the pace, he had to use a lot of energy up just to get competitive. If he`d tracked the winner he would have finished another length and a half to two lengths in front of the third horse imo. [/b][/quote]
I can understand where Mordin is coming from here, but to understand it you need to remove Authorized from race
You then have a race run at an overly strong gallop, the prominent horses having nothing left and running on empty and the held up horse coming by tiring horses to to win. A similar scenario to the Breeders Cup where Red Rocks came from well off the pace to win
i think this is what Mordin is getting at
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I know that, and Dettori rode a good race keeping him at midfield most of the way around, but EM was right at the back and had too much ground to make up on the winner when the race bagan in earnest.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
The nonsense comment referred to this:
Only future events can prove that either way and i'm not sure what Mordins means by it tbh
On what EM has shown so far, he will probably struggle to win a G1 at 12f with the likes of Dylan Thomas, Authorized, Rail Link etc about and if thats what he means, he probably is correct
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
I think EM will be Ballydoyle`s first choice for the 10F Group 1 races upcoming this summer
trackside528
At the Start
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Can't believe Mordin is coming out with the "horses behind Authorized won't win a Group 1" stuff again a fortnight after the same statement about Cockney Rebel after the 2,000 Guineas made him look like a clown..
Hills is right about Aqaleem I would think, ran a very solid race but just didn't have the toe to get near the winner..
As for the O'Brien 10f 3yo's, I wouldn't discount Duke of Marmalade or Mount Nelson (if they can get him right) either..
Hills is right about Aqaleem I would think, ran a very solid race but just didn't have the toe to get near the winner..
As for the O'Brien 10f 3yo's, I wouldn't discount Duke of Marmalade or Mount Nelson (if they can get him right) either..