The Derby

Originally posted by Headstrong@Jun 3 2007, 05:59 PM
It was 5th he got in fact wasn't it? - they paid out on 4th

So frustrating that Teofilo couldn't have taken his part in this and in the 2000 so we coudl judge the relative merits of the top 2 yr olds. Maddening, really, as i think the few at the very top are quite special
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No Lucarno was fourth and Soldier of Fortune fifth.
 
Ah yes, pattern races and all that? Or do they only pay out 3 on an 18 runner race? [don't bother to reply, as I'll only forget again! :rolleyes: ]
 
GF, I disagree, they should go for the Eclipse/KGQE2 double with this fellow, and I think they'll pull it off.

Running him in the Irish Derby isn't going to prove anything we don't already know.
 
Probably not, but I think it will be better for him in the long run not to be thrown straight into older company. Looking over the last 15 years or so, I reckon a trip to the Curragh has been a better stepping stone for Derby winners to go on to greater things than heading to Sandown or going straight to Ascot.
 
Originally posted by Venusian@Jun 3 2007, 07:28 PM
GF, I disagree, they should go for the Eclipse/KGQE2 double with this fellow, and I think they'll pull it off.
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Chances are it`ll be a lot firmer at Ascot in July - in which case Dylan Thomas will out speed him.
 
I think that connections of top-class horses like Authorized should jolly well run them where I say they should.
 
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Originally posted by krizon@Jun 3 2007, 08:01 PM
So, Gareth, you reckon that there's a chance that the trainer's sussed that, too?  :brows:
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There may not be anything in it, but:

Since 1988, 10 Derby winners chose not to go to the Curragh and only two - Lammtarra and Nashwan - won another Group 1. (20%)

Edit: make that 2 from 9, Sir Percy doesn't count as he was injured.

In the same period, 9 Derby winners went to the Curragh, and 5 of them - High Chaparral, Galileo, Sinndar, PCH's own Dr Devious and Generous went on to further Group 1 victories (and that's ignoring Quest For Fame, who eventually pulled off another G1 out in the States a couple of years later). (56%)

PCH seems keen on the Eclipse though, so we'll see. The Prince Of Wales will tell us where the older horses are with respect to that.
 
The Eclipse bottomed Nashwan . OK There won't any be Indian Skimmer or Warning in the field this year but he was never the same horse.
 
superb pictures mate

Warbler

I agree with your view on Motivator's speed figure. I don't know why, but that year the times at every other distance were in line with one going correction on my figures, except the 12 furlong times. You could therefore only compare the handicap over the same distance with the Derby, none of the other races tied in with that distance. I belive this is the reason why many people overrated the figure earned by Motivator.

This year all the times on Derby day fitted together great. These are my figures for Derby Day, there is no WFA added to these.

91 Zaham
79 Declaration Of War
110 Blythe Knight
101 Hogmanhay
124 Authorized
73 Nosferatu
89 Song Of Passion

Going: -3lbs per mile (Good)


Previous Derby winning speed figures I came up with are

117 Motivator
109 Sir Percy
122 North Light
114 High Chapparal
107 Shaamit
107 Benny The Dip
111 High Rise
119 Galileo
 
I know it is all about the clock, but I can't see many of those with bigger numbers finishing ahead of High Chapparal in his Derby.
 
taking a simplistic view of speed figures is a shite lazy way anyway Euronymous.

taking one race in isolation and rubbishing a method is also a little silly, it's a series of figures that gives a truer picture of the merit of a horse.

what the figures do tell you is that an easy winner in a slow time is not necessarily a champion.

Betsmate, your point is correct and highlights the folly of assuming that one figure is the be all and all as Euronymous appears to suggest.
 
Not all speed figures are calculated the same. Here's mine for the last 10 years:

High Chaparral 102.95
Galileo 102.94
Authorized 102.89
Sinndar 102.70
North Light 102.48
Kris Kin 101.98
Motivator 101.45
Oath 100.99
Sir Percy 100.31
High-Rise 99.23

So yeah, I really really hope Authorized keeps winning!
 
I'm surpised you rated High Chapparal so highly Gareth.

HC's time was only 2 seconds faster than that recorded by Salim Toto who won the slowly run 12f handicap on the same day, stolen from the front by Fallon. That race was 20 lbs slower than par on my reckoning.
 
My point exactly - totally different methods producing totally different results.

I'm sure we're both equally happy with our methodologies, even if they often lead us to diverging opinions - which is what it's all about.
 
i can't really see why they should differ so much Gareth, a fast time is a fast time, a slow one is a slow one.

whichever method you use would not make HC a big figure without Salim Toto also being given a rating way in excess of what it achieved

it's not really about differing methods imho

What figure would you say Salim Toto earned that day? above or below par?
 
130+, to be precise, where the '+' represents an allowance already added.

Yet they have Acapulco and Admiralofthefleet only 1lb in front of my 105. To have Eagle Mountain on 121, they must be calculating lbs per length at 1.75 and they've 'allowed' Authorized an extra 2lbs, presumably as they felt he had more than a length in hand.

That I could live with, but I'm not convinced about the poundage. I reduced mine to 1.5 a few years ago (from 1.8) and my ratings have been more accurate as a result.

Edit: Just re-calculated. That extra 2lbs was based, erroneously, on my own poundage. 5 lengths at 1.75lbs is 9lbs so there isn't an allowance for ease of victory built in.
 
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