The Derby

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gus

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Derby Pricewise in today's Post and Tom Segal goes for Galileo Gold at 12/1.

He tackles the stamina question in an extraordinarily muddled and convoluted way: "His sire Paco Boy is normally an influence for speed rather than stamina, but he has sired some decent horses over 10f when mated with stamina-laden mares and I'm pretty sure Galileo Gold will stay 10f well. From history we know if the Guineas winner stays a mile and a quarter then they have a pretty good shot at winning the Derby..."


Is it just me or is there a huge amount of wishful thinking in there? To what "history" is he referring? And what he says about "some decent horses over 10f" doesn't stand up to analysis anyway. As far as I can see Paco Boy has sired three - that's three - horses who have recorded RPRs of 100 or more at 10f, namely Beacon, Pacify and Azraff. He's sired nothing that has recorded 100 at beyond 10f. To be fair, hardly anything by Paco Boy has tried beyond 10f but perhaps there's a reason for that.


Harry Herbert mentions Galileo, the damsire, as an "influence for stamina". Well, he would need to be. And he mentions Montjeu in the pedigree but you have to go back to Galileo Gold's fourth dam - his great-great-granddam - to find the dam of Montjeu. When you're going back that far in a horse's pedigree in search of grounds for optimism over stamina, you're clearly struggling.


Clearly, Galileo Gold could stay a mile and a half at Epsom, the stiffest mile and a half in the country based on standard times. But he's by Paco Boy and the odds are massively against it.
 
gus said:
Is it just me or is there a huge amount of wishful thinking in there? To what "history" is he referring?
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It isn't just you. I thought exactly the same thing when I read it this morning.

I couldn't touch this horse with a barge pole for the Derby and the fact he's 2/1 fav for the POW yet 12/1 for the Derby says it all IMO.

Elsewhere it was interesting / disappointing to read Angus Gold say that Wajeez definitely wouldn't be going for the race, although that won't come as a surprise to many given he's touching 150 on the machine.

Midterm for me.
 
Me too, Wilson. I havn't been for fourteen years, since the Galileo and High Chaparral days! So its a trip down memory lane.
Let me know if we can catch up for a pint.
 
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wilsonl said:
Elsewhere it was interesting / disappointing to read Angus Gold say that Wajeez definitely wouldn't be going for the race, although that won't come as a surprise to many given he's touching 150 on the machine.
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Also interesting to note that Massaat does go for it.
 
It was DO. Nothing struck me as looking like they'd improve for the step up so I won't be backing anything from the race in the Derby. Minding would be a different proposition but O'Brien seemed fairly confident it would be the Oaks.

More than happy to meet up for a beer Marble but I'll be in the cheap seats (Tattenham Straight) as I'm going with a bunch who aren't really racing fans so just want to somewhere to park their arses and drink from 10:00 AM to 5:00 PM with the odd bet thrown in. It's never a pretty site so if you're around that area I suggest we make it early ;)
 
Grey said:
It sounds like GG would fail the dosage test at any rate.
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They're going to perform an Equinome genetic speed gene test on him over the next week.

Isn't that just a fancy way of saying a dosage test ?
 
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That's no bother Wilson, we'll sort something out. :)
As for Galileo Gold, I'm with everyone else. My gut feeling is he's not a Derby horse.
 
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Massaat has a better chance of staying 12f than Galileo Gold but these things are all relative and, objectively, he's an unlikely stayer as well. On the positive side, he's by Teofilo and his granddam won over 13f (at Wexford) but his dam was a sprinter by Acclamation and everything close up on his dam's side is a sprinter or sprinter/miler.

On the subject of meet-ups, I'm going to Dante day at York next week and if anyone off the forum will be there I'd gladly buy him (or her - no sexism here) a pint (or equivalent) in Tatts.
 
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Tom Segal does my nut in he's a sh!it at wall thrower when it comes to AP betting.
He may well make a profit from AP but one might put a gun to ones own head before a profit is realised

Surprised anything that ran in the Guineas is fancied for the Derby by anyone. All but a few said it was a non event beforehand and Air Force Blue was a certainty
Wouldn't surprise me if he turned the tables on GG if they meet again at a mile. As for a Paco Boy winning a Derby..I should coco.

I thought Awtaad looked the part the other day.

After winning his maiden he was put away and on his return was thrown into an open looking handicap off 9st10lbs and turned it into a procession.

Moved up to listed company over 7 furlongs the other day he won like a horse who is crying out for further.

Next step is the Irish 2000 Guineas against the big boys where he's top priced at 6/1 and could easily turn over Galileo Gold or Finish a good second to AFB would be good enough if Aiden's magic works another miracle and he bounces back.

As for the Derby he's 50/1 which seems very generous as Kevin Prendergast intends to find out if he will get the trip and this is a very good horse
 
prince regent said:
Perhaps he remembers Sir Ivor
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Aye.

Sir Ivor's Derby win in 1968 has long been used to perpetuate the myth that a "ten furlong horse" can win the Derby, that a non-stayer can land the prize if brought with one late run. It completely ignores the fact that Sir Ivor wasn't a non-stayer. He won the Washington DC International over 12f later in the year. He got the trip just like every Derby winner has to get the trip.

You get the same nonsense with the National, supposedly a race which suits two-and-a-half milers who can apparently "hunt round" for the first circuit before being put into the race for the second. That got trotted out for donkeys' years but, thankfully, you hear it less often nowadays.
 
gus said:
Aye.

Sir Ivor's Derby win in 1968 has long been used to perpetuate the myth that a "ten furlong horse" can win the Derby, that a non-stayer can land the prize if brought with one late run. It completely ignores the fact that Sir Ivor wasn't a non-stayer. He won the Washington DC International over 12f later in the year. He got the trip just like every Derby winner has to get the trip.

You get the same nonsense with the National, supposedly a race which suits two-and-a-half milers who can apparently "hunt round" for the first circuit before being put into the race for the second. That got trotted out for donkeys' years but, thankfully, you hear it less often nowadays.
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There's more than a little truth in both, Gus.
Lester himself said Sir Ivor was a 10f horse who managed to last Epsom's 12, and the tight Laurel Park would hardly be the greatest test of stamina.
Gay Trip was a 2.5m horse, but in his day the fences were more formidable and good jumpers could often pick their way around the first circuit and join contest on the 2nd.
All academic now, of course as breeding and course husbandry are much different to what they were.
 
GG won't be winning this.

O'Brien has 9 of the 13 entries in the Derrinstown on Sunday.
 
Given the favourite has only won a 6k maiden where he didn't start favourite, you'd have to think there's all to play for. Weld and the Aga have some interesting entries.
 
reet hard said:
There's more than a little truth in both, Gus.
Lester himself said Sir Ivor was a 10f horse who managed to last Epsom's 12, and the tight Laurel Park would hardly be the greatest test of stamina.
Gay Trip was a 2.5m horse, but in his day the fences were more formidable and good jumpers could often pick their way around the first circuit and join contest on the 2nd.
All academic now, of course as breeding and course husbandry are much different to what they were.
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I loved Lester but he wasn't averse to burnishing his own image and I take everything said by jockeys, however brilliant, with a substantial pinch of salt. Sir Ivor was effective at shorter but he stayed every yard of a mile and a half. All Derby winners do.

There might be a bit more substance to the Gay Trip example but it's resulted in literally dozens of hopeless non-stayers being punted for countless Nationals over the past fifty years or so and going off ludicrously short. Silviniaco Conti was an excellent example only last month.
 
It is said that if you are guaranteed to stay the Derby trip then you are guaranteed to be too slow to win the race.
Sporting of Galileo Gold connections to go for the race if they do, and they should do so. It did Dawn Approach no harm to run there.
Ahonoora got a Derby winner so Paco Boy could imo.
Aswaad is a monster of a horse, head and shoulders above his opposition yesterday; impressive too.
he could be a Derby horse but would have to be as well balanced as Sea The Stars.
I remember the RUK team analyse that Derby as being run to suit a non stayer despite the fact that Coolmore ran 4 or 6 horses including Fame And glory, Rip and others.
Remember El Gran Senor who failed because he had no cover for those final furlongs yet hacked up at The Curragh.
 
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