The Derby

Trust me, DO; there's no danger of that. :)
Prior to the race, the world and his wife had Minding as the likely winner, if she stayed, yet - to a man - the weights and measures brigade have pegged her victory as 'ordinary'. Either she's gone backwards, or the raters are wrong.
Highly progressive previously,(her Irish Guineas' blip is easily forgiven, on grounds of pace and going) she had murdered a decent field in the English version, and the only question against her was the trip. Apart from her jockey's post-Oaks assertion that "she's much the best", there's strong visual evidence that she was incommoded by the extra distance, yet all that is ignored and the ratings of the first 2 perjured because of it. Calling it a 'performance rating' won't wash either, as there's little use in compiling ratings if they're not employed for predicting future outcomes.
Make no mistake, Minding is a very high class filly, and she'll certainly be kicking a few gp1 colts into touch, though not necessarily over the Arc distance.
 
Last edited:
Minding did not travel well in the Oaks. I don't think she came down the hill at all well and Moore was just holding her together. He then got sliced up by Buick (that was another story of a bad ride) and looked out of the race. She then won the race as if she was beating a lot of washing.
She can't be rated higher as the pure statistics of her win don't warrant it. She won despite a lot going wrong. She didn't beat much. I'm sure she's a lot better than that and if continuing to show the same enthusiasm will prove it as the summer unfolds.
 
James Willoughby did a good analysis of the race on RUK Monday I think. He said because they went too fast early door Minding was able to overcome all the trouble IR she had because the leader(s) were going so slow in the last couple of furlongs.
 
Simon Rowlands details the sectional analysis at the Timeform site.

He said, ims, it was rare indeed that both the Derby and Oaks were run [very] fast-slow-medium. I didn't see the Oaks live and have only seen a grainy recording of it so don't have that strong opinion on it other than that it looked a very weak race beforehand - the winner apart - and it was Minding's to lose. At more than one stage it looked like that might happen. It's looks a very weak race after the event, again with the exception of the winner.

However, Minding's time rating is 14lbs faster than Harzand's and well up to scratch for the race so it was maybe not as inefficiently run as the Derby. You really have to worry, though, when the runner-up is rated just 97. For me, no-one rides Epsom better than Dettori so the very fact that he anchored Architecture [and Wings Of Desire] in rear illustrates his acute perception of pace. That Moore stayed with or behind him both times reinforces that, although I'm on record as criticising Moore for getting it badly wrong on Dark Red (but maybe it just wasn't off) earlier on Friday so my immediate thought was that he was just doing a Spencer and playing a percentage game.

Minding ended up winning comfortably and is probably a good bit better than the bare form, something I do intend to keep in mind going forward. On the other hand, more than one respected observer has highlighted how lean she looked. She may well need a proper rest ahead of an autumn campaign. This race may well leave its mark. Who knows.

I will probably oppose the Derby form [against older horses] at every opportunity but obviously each race will have to be taken on its own merits.
 
Architecture will prove to be a group 1 horse in my opinion. I was really taken with her and think she is one to follow when she can avoid Minding, who has to rate a good winner of the Oaks without being outstanding.
 
Back
Top