I have to say the running of the last 3 in the guineas were just too bad to be true. I think if aiden sorts out the issue with afb he may well turn the tables on g gold. If we had a couple of solid Derby horses with very good form behind them then the likes of the first two in the guineas wouldn't be entertaining the Derby. The guineas didn't throw up a top miler so those involved should meet again at the curragh or royal Ascot so we can see if there is a top colt at the mile. A cracking run from the current Derby fav or idaho could quickly see a lot of plans revised. The cynic in me thinks its the huge prizemoney in the Derby that's attracting horses who have little or nothing chance of staying the 12f of Epsom undulations. I just hope the likes of aiden doesn't regret not training Bhutan for the derby as it could be an average colt will win it. Oh for an Australia or camelot when we knew the score long before the trials.
The Derby
- Thread starter gus
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prince regent
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Gus from memory but I'm sure i am right although i could easily be wrong 
two other of Rimmells national winners had the same profile as gay trip in they also had not previously won over further than 21f but as you point out the race is completely different these days with less no hopers and non stayers taking part in the race (the conditions state now a horse has have a win or place over 3 miles??)
Sir ivor was far more effective over 10f , i agree with rest hard, he was after his demolition of candy ride in the champion stakes acknowledged as the best 10f horse in Europe, but things are always relative it was a small field in his derby with the 2nd horse connaught being a galloper who was also probably better suited to 10f (his best wins were over this trip the following season) and the one horse with class in the race guaranteed to stay (remand) having a far from ideal preparation there was talk up till the monday of him being withdrawn i can't recall the rest of the field but I'm sure they lacked the class to challenge a class horse over any distance
if you read Christy Roches book El Gran Señor failed because roche had settled for 2nd place until eddery,s body language made it clear to him that EGS tank was emptying fast
two other of Rimmells national winners had the same profile as gay trip in they also had not previously won over further than 21f but as you point out the race is completely different these days with less no hopers and non stayers taking part in the race (the conditions state now a horse has have a win or place over 3 miles??)Sir ivor was far more effective over 10f , i agree with rest hard, he was after his demolition of candy ride in the champion stakes acknowledged as the best 10f horse in Europe, but things are always relative it was a small field in his derby with the 2nd horse connaught being a galloper who was also probably better suited to 10f (his best wins were over this trip the following season) and the one horse with class in the race guaranteed to stay (remand) having a far from ideal preparation there was talk up till the monday of him being withdrawn i can't recall the rest of the field but I'm sure they lacked the class to challenge a class horse over any distance
if you read Christy Roches book El Gran Señor failed because roche had settled for 2nd place until eddery,s body language made it clear to him that EGS tank was emptying fast
Desert Orchid
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It was correct back in the day that a good 2.5m horse might be an ideal National candidate but the Red Rum era marked a watershed in the history of the race. Since then they have tended to go a proper gallop - so much so that people have argued that the speed is what was leading to the fatalities - and the 2.5m types have almost literally no chance. (Although I wouldn't put forward SC as that type given he had top class winning form over 3m.)
The only 2.5m horse to win the National since Red Rum was Red Marauder but he was one of only two finishers the year it should never have been run.
I'm loving how a Derby discussion gets to include the Grand National, though!
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Gus from memory but I'm sure i am right although i could easily be wrong
Sir ivor was far more effective over 10f , i agree with rest hard, he was after his demolition of candy ride in the champion stakes acknowledged as the best 10f horse in Europe, but things are always relative it was a small field in his derby with the 2nd horse connaught being a galloper who was also probably better suited to 10f (his best wins were over this trip the following season) and the one horse with class in the race guaranteed to stay (remand) having a far from ideal preparation there was talk up till the monday of him being withdrawn i can't recall the rest of the field but I'm sure they lacked the class to challenge a class horse over any distance
if you read Christy Roches book El Gran Señor failed because roche had settled for 2nd place until eddery,s body language made it clear to him that EGS tank was emptying fast
I've no problem at all with the suggestion that Sir Ivor was better over ten. It's the "non-stayer at twelve" that gets me.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
In theory I want to disagree because if a 8/10f horse has a big enough class advantage he can win a Derby - Brigadier Gerard didn't stay 12f but won a King George on class grounds. He wouldn't have won the Derby though because he didn't have a class advantage over Mill Reef - would he have have won a Derby without MR, possible? Dubai Millenium would have won a 12f Group 1 as a 4yo if he'd tried one, but he was never competitive at Epsom. So the age thing comes into it big style.
What will they do! Nothing as usual!
Eleanora Duse
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Just some comments.
The best performance I've ever seen in a National was Crisp's. He was a 2 miler, we thought!
To win a Derby you've got to stay 12f but you also have to have the speed to be top class at 10f. You must have speed which is probably where the 'ten furlong horse' statement comes from, but it is just part of the puzzle.
Remand had the virus already in the Sir Ivor Derby. 'A real racehorse and the unluckiest horse I trained' according to Hern.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Patte Taffe said of Gay Trip he seemed to get a second wind and picked up again but I doubt if that applies to many and on the the flat even less unless your maoi-chinn-tire who seems to find 6f on the flat and 2 miles over hurdles much the same.
When the latter won at 200/1 they thought the trainer was mad but he thought the horse was so laid back that he might just get the trip and the rest is history
That's probably why Sir Henry never ran Frankel at 12 furlongs..The fact he was just that bit too racy. No doubt he would have got it near the end of his career but that we will never know.
The trainer of MCT probably hit the nail on the head....It could be down to good travellers with a high cruising speed over 2m4f will get the National Trip but the more racy type like S Conti have no chance.
When the latter won at 200/1 they thought the trainer was mad but he thought the horse was so laid back that he might just get the trip and the rest is history
That's probably why Sir Henry never ran Frankel at 12 furlongs..The fact he was just that bit too racy. No doubt he would have got it near the end of his career but that we will never know.
The trainer of MCT probably hit the nail on the head....It could be down to good travellers with a high cruising speed over 2m4f will get the National Trip but the more racy type like S Conti have no chance.
Us Army kept the unbeaten record because the runner up was not trying today
on this performanance June will come too soon for him
Now the Derby winner will run on Sunday at Leopardstown or in the dante
Idaho could be ballydyoles horse
on this performanance June will come too soon for him
Now the Derby winner will run on Sunday at Leopardstown or in the dante
Idaho could be ballydyoles horse
It was a bit of a disgrace what happened today.
Heffernan didn't just make sure he didn't get up, he rolled away from the rail to let Moore through in the first place. He didn't even need to be that obvious, because he moved off the rail just before the cutaway, where US Army Ranger would have had the room to attack on the inside anyway.
Port Douglas, the 'moral' winner of the race, was the smallest in the field and hasn't done much growing since last year, if any. His stablemate didn't look anything special before the race either. Every trial race has its dud years and maybe this is one of them where the Vase is concerned.
O'Brien's best Derby candidate, as ranked by him at this time of year, usually gets sent to Leopardstown rather than Chester or York, but the ranking coming out of the trials is often very different, so the next few days should be informative.
Heffernan didn't just make sure he didn't get up, he rolled away from the rail to let Moore through in the first place. He didn't even need to be that obvious, because he moved off the rail just before the cutaway, where US Army Ranger would have had the room to attack on the inside anyway.
Port Douglas, the 'moral' winner of the race, was the smallest in the field and hasn't done much growing since last year, if any. His stablemate didn't look anything special before the race either. Every trial race has its dud years and maybe this is one of them where the Vase is concerned.
O'Brien's best Derby candidate, as ranked by him at this time of year, usually gets sent to Leopardstown rather than Chester or York, but the ranking coming out of the trials is often very different, so the next few days should be informative.
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Dante market looks interesing - Midterm 11/10 Foundation 7/2 Deauville 10s. The latter looks overpriced based on his proximity to Foundation in his penultimate race last season.
I thought there was a lot to like about US Army Ranger today. Has a good stride on him and think he'll be a force on a galloping track.
What a muddling picture. I hope some horse stands out in the upcoming trials but not holding my breath. I'd take the odds on idaho and the ghurka just now as they look the unexposed ones who could take big strides forward. If you fancy one take the price now before the shorten to the ridiculous prices that the first two are now.
If Sir Ivor stayed every yard of a mile and a half how come he fell in a heap in the final furlong of the strongly run Irish Derby when Lester went for home early on Ribero and equally so moved to challenge Vaguely Noble but struggled in the final furlong . Reet is quite right about this IMO .
I agree entirely about the ride given to Port Douglas and Heffernan's very tame effort close home also was very unimpressive. No horse ever hugs the rail all the way round and then goes on straight at the cutaway and if the horse was going to hang left as he did when he got a smack then it is even more likely you would make for the rail . If he was worried that the horse had hung right when getting a smack why did he not pull his whip through .
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SlimChance
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Please tell me what bookmaker shortned US Army Ranger yesterday?
You misread my post (and check the time of it). He was shortened across the board prior to the race and so too was Midterm.
There's obviously nothing wrong with shortening a horse immediately following a decent performance and the bookies would soon go broke if they didn't but this relatively recent trend of them shortening in anticipation of a good performance is gutless. Yesterday went a step further because Midterm was shortened prior to the race too (even though he isn't running until next week) presumably in case either US Army Ranger flopped or the beaten horses from Sandown franked the Midterm form.
Ultimately the outcome gave us neither scenario but Midterm continued to shorten while US Army Ranger was pushed out - your firm being biggest @6s for a while IIRC - but only briefly and he's now back to a genera 9/2 - 5/1 (SportingBet's 11/2 clearly doesn't count) which is only half a point bigger than he was before the final decs for yesterday's race. Whereas Midterm's price has been significantly cut and so too horses like Idaho, The Gurkha and Port Douglas...
The preemptive shortening has got so bad nowadays that the Monday afternoon before a Pricewise Cheltenham analysis is published there's a sea of blue based on firms (and admittedly lemming punters) trying to predict what he's going to choose.
Ante Post betting has peaked and is now on a gradual but sad decline and while this isn't the sole reason (the Mullins factor is worse), it's a strong contributor.
Defend it all you want Slim but it's stopped me from betting ante post, which is probably a good thing actually and I know I'm not alone.
davidjohnson
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The view of US Army Ranger depends what context you look at him through. He's only run the twice, quickly shown smart form to make into a Group winner and battled when he had to yesterday, he stuck his head down, ran straight and kept going all the way to the line. Obviously he's a really promising horse to be looking at in a positive light.
There's also the view of him as a 5/1 second favourite for the Derby just over 4 weeks away. Timeform rated him 109p for yesterday, which suggests he'll have to improve by another 15-18 lb or so to win a Derby, so in the context of that, he looks a pretty bad price.
There's also the view of him as a 5/1 second favourite for the Derby just over 4 weeks away. Timeform rated him 109p for yesterday, which suggests he'll have to improve by another 15-18 lb or so to win a Derby, so in the context of that, he looks a pretty bad price.
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SlimChance
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A lot of what you're saying here is mosinformed. PP put more work into ante post prices than any other firm and still lay some massive ricks. They're are pros out there who specialize in picking off firms on ante post markets. It's very beatable. The idea that ante post betting is dead is simply wrong.
Ante post markets are living creatures, the prices are never stagnant. On the day of a race there is new information in the market. Firstly the strength or weakness of US Army Ranger to win in Chester is directly related to his price for the Derby. US Army Ranger's price is directly related to Midterms price, it's a zero sum game. There was a stack of warm cash around for Midterm yesterday morning and those punters were correct in reading how the market would react after the race to any other than a dominate win for the fav.
They're is also the case that a lot of the price cuts you refer too are caused by speculators on Betfair taking a position on horses before they run. Some of the cuts are simple supply and demand but not all bookmakers are guilty of following the machine on these moves.
If you want to bury your head in the sand and believe that ante post racing is dead than I can't help but don't assume there aren't aren't smart punters chopping it off in this field when bookmakers lay the stale prices that you believe to be correct.
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Absolutely, the two are intrinsically linked but yet you are still not getting what I'm saying. It's the shortening of both horses that is plain wrong.
Shortening Midterm prior to the race indicates there's a chance the favorite is going to under-perform in his trial and thus the market would be quick to react on Midterm.
Shortening US Army Ranger prior to the race indicates he's fancied to win well. In this instance this is a little cowardly on it's own because he was 4/11 for fecks sake.
But shortening both. They want it both ways and the perceived %age of either horse winning the Derby prior to US Army Ranger even stepping foot on the Roodeye went from something like 35% to 40%. So how can that be right when in your own words one horses chance is related to the other's.
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SlimChance
Guest
Both horses were running in trials in next week. There is a set of circumstances where if both win that could both shorten. Its not like we've been knocked over by Derby horses.
Here is what I think happened.
1) There has been a genuine strong move for Midtern probably in the belief that he will be trading around 2/1 for the Derby should he win the Dante. This is not a ridiculous scenario given the Dante doesn't looks the deepest renewal.
2) US Army Ranger is a heavy loser for books antepost after the hype machine went into overdrive before his run. He is an appealing price for the Derby BUT that doesn't stop punters pilling into the perceived Ballydoyle first string for Epsom in a year that doesn't look a vintage Derby. Again punters are taking a position in the market going into Chester where he was 4/11.
Don't be fooled by the media narrative of feigned outrage when n a horse is subsequently cut for a big race after winning a trial at long odds on. Take Douvan as an example. He won first time out over fences at 2/11 and was cut across the board for the Arkle. PP tried to hold 2/1 and simply couldn't. Punters saw a superstar over hurdles jump like a bunny on his first run over fences and wanted on. Where they wrong? No they weren't but check the tweets at time from people saying he was a ridiculous price at 2/1 for a race he went off 1.25 on Betfair.
Antepost markets get very poor coverage in general. They remain the market of choice for the shrewdest of bettor. Don't underestimate the opportunities out there.
I'm probably being slightly unfair to bookies, they are after all just reacting to the market nowadays instead of setting it so it's the idiot punters who are to blame.
Ante Post betting will always have it's place - I even nabbed a bit of 25/1 about Idaho immediately after yesterday's race - but the value in it is rarely at the head of the market.
Ante Post betting will always have it's place - I even nabbed a bit of 25/1 about Idaho immediately after yesterday's race - but the value in it is rarely at the head of the market.
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SlimChance
Guest
That depends. PP certainly didn't shorten US Army Ranger and were actually the only firm to push him straight after Aasheq was run over at Navan. The biggest problem with ante post markets is firms aren't managing them correctly and horses at the front can be falsely short prices.
The ante post thread that Euro started could be a very good one if guys are using the correct logic to identify bets and not just backing horses they like.
How come? Perhaps he had an off-day at the Curragh and ran below form. Perhaps he was simply beaten by a better horse at Longchamp. I don't know.
But how come his defeats at 12f are treated as evidence that he didn't truly stay that trip whereas his victories at 12f apparently aren't evidence that he did? And how come my earlier point that Epsom's is the stiffest mile and a half in the country based on standard times is being studiously ignored?
We could go on for ever and I don't want to. But in an argument over whether or not a horse who twice won in the very top class at 12f actually stayed 12f, I know which side I want to be on.