The Derby

Desert Orchid said:
FWIW, I plan to forgive Massaat his disappointing show yesterday. I'm also prepared to allow him another chance to prove 12f is not beyond him.

I suspect a reason will emerge for yesterday. It may be that he left it at Lingfield. I honestly don't think Richard Hills would have sent such a strong message to Clare Balding ahead of the race regarding Massaat's chances (something along the lines of "make absolutely no mistake, this horse will win the Derby"). HIlls has been connected to many of Sheikh Hamdan's elite for a couple of decades so the horse must have done something extraordinary at Lingfield.

I'm prepared to pay to find out in due course.
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The sensible thing to do is to ignore completely all upbeat messages from connections going into a big race. There were any number of "I wouldn't swap him for anything else" statements about various horses in advance of the Derby but they're meaningless as, in my view, is that guff from Richard Hills.

The only comments from a trainer or jockey to which I'd have any regard at all would be downbeat ones.

Massaat clearly pulled too hard but that's quite common with horses ridden by Hanagan. Even if he were to settle better in future he'd be an unlikely 12f horse, for me.
 
gus said:
The sensible thing to do is to ignore completely all upbeat messages from connections going into a big race. There were any number of "I wouldn't swap him for anything else" statements about various horses in advance of the Derby but they're meaningless as, in my view, is that guff from Richard Hills.

The only comments from a trainer or jockey to which I'd have any regard at all would be downbeat ones.

Massaat clearly pulled too hard but that's quite common with horses ridden by Hanagan. Even if he were to settle better in future he'd be an unlikely 12f horse, for me.
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Normally I do ignore such remarks. I'd usually ignore downbeat remarks too as they might just be self-defence mechanisms. However, HIlls was always measured in his comments when he was riding (imo) and I reckoned there must have been something more said to Clare Balding for her to repeat his words. She could have said, "Richard Hills has just said he expects Massaat to run a big race / won't be out of the first three / go very close / etc" or some other positive slant. I think the message was clearly much stronger than that.

We also sometimes get "We thought he was a cert today" from various winning connections who would never have said such beforehand and we think "basterts kept that to theirsel, din't they" so for Balding to pass on the remark so close to the off smacks of genuine belief from Hills.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong and I'll live with it :)
 
Ardross said:
I think it is fair to say they went too quick up front on that ground but US Army Ranger did not look to be struggling to go the gallop he appeared to be always travelling . It is almost as if Moore has become so much on a pedestal that people do not dare criticise him any more . Watching the 1986 Derby recording on YT for which poor Greville Starkey got so much stick - the horse loses his place and Starkey is nudging him before the home turn and he takes longer to pick up than US Army Ranger but his finishing effort is more sustained . There is very little difference visually between the two rides .
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US Army Ranger is no Dancing Brave.
It was a well timed ride, but simply found one too good, possibly on the ground. As SunyBay said, had US Army Ranger been positioned beside Harzand throughout, I believe he wouldnt have won. Connections have clearly learned a lot about their horse over the last couple of months, had a plan for yesterday and would have come off but for one strong stayer getting optimum conditions.
 
My time rating for Harzand yesterday is 123. Not outstanding but well up to scratch.

I have no wish to revisit the argument earlier on on this thread on the issue of how stiff a test of stamina the Epsom 12f is but I strongly suspect US Army Ranger may prove best at 10f. He looked like winning impressively at Chester but didn't and he hit 1.2 in running yesterday but got beat.
 
I thought he faltered inside the final furlong but given the amount of ground he made up in the straight it can't be stated with any certainty that the trip was too far for him.
 
Wings Of Desire ran well enough yesterday and clearly has a future but the Dante form looks relatively ordinary now as does the Imperial Aviator/Ulysses strand.
 
gus said:
Wings Of Desire ran well enough yesterday and clearly has a future but the Dante form looks relatively ordinary now as does the Imperial Aviator/Ulysses strand.
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Which reminds me...

The race I contacted EC1 about was the 3yo 12f handicap later on Dante day. Timeform etc seemed convinced the Dante was fast run but my time rating comparison with the handicap suggested either the handicap was massively fast or the Dante was not as fast as they were making out. One of the handicappers came out and won by a nose next time off 7lbs or so higher and three others ran in yesterday's big race at Musselburgh and two of them ran very well. But it doesn't close the gap with the Dante. I think the Dante was probably weak.
 
In agreement with Gus. I think we may find US Army Ranger is more of a Connaught than a Dancing Brave. He doesn't seem to have a fantastic turn of foot from what I've seen of the two competitive races he's been in and maybe the way Moore rode him was the right way: bringing him with one long run. I would not be surprised to see him go for the Eclipse and run a totally different race, but brought with one long run from the front.

Having said all that he'll now win the Irish Derby and St Leger!
 
I think a combination of the ground,not handling the camber and being asked to make up just too much ground cost us army ranger the race. He's improving rapidly and could turn out to be a very high class colt. Here's hoping good ground at the curragh and he is able to show us what he seems to be doing at ballydoyle.
 
HawkWing said:
US Army Ranger is no Dancing Brave.
It was a well timed ride, but simply found one too good, possibly on the ground. As SunyBay said, had US Army Ranger been positioned beside Harzand throughout, I believe he wouldnt have won. Connections have clearly learned a lot about their horse over the last couple of months, had a plan for yesterday and would have come off but for one strong stayer getting optimum conditions.
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I thought UAR was also hanging in a bit. I think the camber didn't help him but having said that I don't think he would have got there. Be interesting to see if he goes for the KG at Ascot.
 
Ardross said:
I think it is fair to say they went too quick up front on that ground but US Army Ranger did not look to be struggling to go the gallop he appeared to be always travelling . It is almost as if Moore has become so much on a pedestal that people do not dare criticise him any more . Watching the 1986 Derby recording on YT for which poor Greville Starkey got so much stick - the horse loses his place and Starkey is nudging him before the home turn and he takes longer to pick up than US Army Ranger but his finishing effort is more sustained . There is very little difference visually between the two rides .
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Without getting into any argument about US Army Ranger vs Dancing Brave, I've just watched them both again and the two rides are pretty much identical.
 
Think one of the things that didnt help USAR was Humprey Bogart getting in the way when Moore first wanted to go. I dont think it made any difference to the result.

Identical maybe until the last half furlong, where Dancing Brave made up a length on Shahrastani, while USAR lost a length.
 
Starkey was rowing along on DB early in the straight in 1986 with little initial response. Moore wasn't anything like as vigorous at that stage on Saturday. That's not a criticism of Moore but a statement of fact.
 
G-G said:
Frankie always ready with at least two excuses - 'and the ground was too tacky for him.'
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Entirely believable in this case, as WOD was being chivvied along at various stages of the race, exactly as he was in his previous 2 outings. Lacks a gearchange, and it looks like Leger or nothing if he's to make the top table.
 
gus said:
Starkey was rowing along on DB early in the straight in 1986 with little initial response. Moore wasn't anything like as vigorous at that stage on Saturday. That's not a criticism of Moore but a statement of fact.
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Looked to me on viewing earlier today as if there was no response because there was nowhere for the horse to go if it did indeed wish to respond - he was shoving it away up the arses of 4 in front - something jockeys do rather too often for my liking.
 
simmo said:
Looked to me on viewing earlier today as if there was no response because there was nowhere for the horse to go if it did indeed wish to respond - he was shoving it away up the arses of 4 in front - something jockeys do rather too often for my liking.
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Looked to me he had a plan to track Dettori and then found himself much too far back - great jockeys do give horses bad rides sometimes . Lester would agree Park Top in the 1969 Arc for example .
 
Ardross said:
Looked to me he had a plan to track Dettori and then found himself much too far back - great jockeys do give horses bad rides sometimes . Lester would agree Park Top in the 1969 Arc for example .
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Looked to me like we're talking about different races. :) I was responding to Gus's comments on Starkey.
 
This debate is be coming worse than the weight for age one,

the place of a horse in a race at the rear of the field , is only good or bad dependent of how fast pace has been,

You can come from last and win a derby and You can also front run.
 
I've crunched a few numbers from the Derby meeting and remain unconvinced about the form.

From a pace perspective there was obviously nothing satisfactory about how the Derby unfolded. The overall time rating for the winner is only 19lbs faster than that of the 25/1 winner of the opening 10f handicap who was off 75. The added worry would be that it would not be unreasonable to expect the ground to be drying out throughout the afternoon so for such a modest animal to post the best time relative to its class would further reduce the performances against the clock of the later races.

I mentioned before the 3yo handicap that took place after the Dante. The prominent runners there who took in the big race at Musselburgh on Saturday didn't do anything great for the form and the negative comparison with Wings Of Desire appears to be borne out by his finishing position in the Derby. If anything, it would support a case for arguing that Wings Of Desire improved a good bit from York.

I reckon that only once or twice per year do I annotate a race with "-?", to remind me that my figures might be a tad generous. This year's Derby is the first to come into this category since Oath's. I originally went 122 for Oath and later pegged it back to 118 as the form continued to disappoint. I have Harzand on 122 and will not be surprised if I find myself lowering that in due course.

On the other hand, he was one of the least exposed runners in the race and probably one of the biggest improvers so while he himself might progress further as the season unwinds, would that support the argument that any future rating of his should be back-dated to Saturday?

Just throwing it out there...

Minding's 118 for the Oaks, by the way, is backed up by a commensurate time rating, which would get her very close to the best 3yo colts with the allowance but nowhere near the likes of Postponed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Minding's 118 for the Oaks, by the way, is backed up by a commensurate time rating, which would get her very close to the best 3yo colts with the allowance but nowhere near the likes of Postponed.
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RPR also have Minding on 118, with the 2nd on 115, the OH has them 119/114; if there's not north of half a stone between them at the end of the season - even on conventional ratings - I'll give the game up.
 
Why give it up, Reet?

You get seasons when they're not up to much.

Yet again, though, we have so-called expert pundits suggesting an Oaks winner can beat or even would have beaten the Derby winner and already being tipped for the Arc.

It all adds to the fun...
 
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