The Derby

I do remember quite a few people saying best horse won after Shahrastani . This time I think they are probably right but Not all that surprising the runner up's run petered out close home. Smullen gave the winner a textbook Derby ride .
 
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"I've had a small bet on Idaho at 25/1 for Epsom. Plenty seem to think that they know which O'Brien's best Derby horse is and that horse is US Army Ranger. They might be right. But if you subscribe to the view that he's still in the process of finding out about his middle-distance colts then there's some mileage in looking at others from the stable. Betting and jockey bookings suggest Idaho wasn't expected yesterday but he ran a fine race. With hindsight he did a lot of running round the outside turning in but it was an impressive move and he looked all over the winner until Harzand (race-fit) reeled him in. The pair were miles clear and the time was good. Smullen's comments afterwards raised doubts about the winner handling Epsom, although Weld clearly disagrees. Whether Harzand runs or not I could see Idaho, better for the run, turning it round on decent ground at Epsom."

I posted the above weeks back. The perils of over-complicating things. It reminds me of the 1978 Derby. I went to York for the Dante, watched Shirley Heights win well and spent the next three weeks persuading myself that Julio Mariner would turn the form round at Epsom. To compound it, I then went right off Julio and was at Donny to see him win the Leger at 28/1.

It's why I'm still working for a living.
 
I was on the wrong Sea The Stars horse! Delighted he has sired a Derby winner.

I'm still not convinced this is a classic crop of 3yo colts but first and second are two nice improving unexposed horses. Undeniably USAR was given too much to do but I think the best horse won.

I'm not entirely sure Harzand pulled up 100% sound, hope he's okay. Wouldn't be surprising if he was feeling his foot a little bit, I guess.
 
Excellent run by Humphrey Bogart who completely missed the break . Nice to see some proper stayers at the front .
 
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I'm delighted to see Pat Smullen win a Derby.

It was close enough between the first three and Wings of Desire wasn't too far off either. It looks like they might all meet again at the Curragh, where I hope we get good fast ground, which would make for an interesting race.
 
I'll crunch some numbers during the week but my immediate back-of-fag-pack calcs point to the winner being about 122, about 4lbs better than Oath (the worst I've ever rated) and well off the very best. There has to be a fair chance it's better than that, though.
 
gus said:
"I've had a small bet on Idaho at 25/1 for Epsom. Plenty seem to think that they know which O'Brien's best Derby horse is and that horse is US Army Ranger. They might be right. But if you subscribe to the view that he's still in the process of finding out about his middle-distance colts then there's some mileage in looking at others from the stable. Betting and jockey bookings suggest Idaho wasn't expected yesterday but he ran a fine race. With hindsight he did a lot of running round the outside turning in but it was an impressive move and he looked all over the winner until Harzand (race-fit) reeled him in. The pair were miles clear and the time was good. Smullen's comments afterwards raised doubts about the winner handling Epsom, although Weld clearly disagrees. Whether Harzand runs or not I could see Idaho, better for the run, turning it round on decent ground at Epsom."

I posted the above weeks back. The perils of over-complicating things. It reminds me of the 1978 Derby. I went to York for the Dante, watched Shirley Heights win well and spent the next three weeks persuading myself that Julio Mariner would turn the form round at Epsom. To compound it, I then went right off Julio and was at Donny to see him win the Leger at 28/1.

It's why I'm still working for a living.
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I reckon most of us have been there, gus.
 
Can we spare a moment to salute Urban Sea? Dam of both Sea The Stars and Galileo, who were responsible for almost 50% of the field between them including the first three home (over 50% if you consider New Approach & Teofilo sired another two), and maternal granddam of Moonlight Magic. An absolute superstar of the breed and the bluest of blue hens.
 
Cruella said:
Can we spare a moment to salute Urban Sea? Dam of both Sea The Stars and Galileo, who were responsible for almost 50% of the field between them including the first three home (over 50% if you consider New Approach & Teofilo sired another two), and maternal granddam of Moonlight Magic. An absolute superstar of the breed and the bluest of blue hens.
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I remember seeing her at Ascot 1993 finishing second in Prince Of Wales; I thought then what wonderful Bumper horses she would throw !
Also present when she won the Arc on heavy ground at a ridiculous price.
 
Derby day was a great spectacle, really enjoyed it, some lovely looking people, I've never felt more like riding a filly in my life.
One of the fillies was getting sweaty between the legs, I could tell when she bent over to pick up her champers!
Punting wise it was difficult, but Blaine and a big priced place horse in the last was decent
 
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Fair play to the winner, Smullen and Master Weld.

As a backer of 2nd, he was given every chance and is clearly still learning the game.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I kept looking for him and couldn't believe how far back he was.

Dark Red & Minding yesterday, this one today. He isn't covering himself in glory, is he?
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Considering the 4 out the rear early finished 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th, he probably didn't make too bad a fist of it. Had to switch round a couple before he made his run, but still had his chance, had he been good enough.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Moore gave the favourite a lot to do - shades of Greville Starkey!
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From his body language after the race, he knew he had made a balls up and I think had he been closer, he would have got there. Its really hard to peg back a horse who has got first run on you on that sort of ground. That Minding achieved it yesterday proved what an exceptional filly she is (and before you all crab the fact it was a poor Oaks - she won it despite a hideous trip, looking like an emaciated greyhound from 3 quick races at top level AND having burst her sinus last time - that takes some doing) Back to today - yes I think USAR was too far back, I was cursing Moore but its a ridiculously difficult track and the horse looked just a bit too laid back. He was more on the ball than Chester (I can see why Aiden ran him there) but he is still learning. Add in the fact that the ground possibly suited the winner more and the re-match at the Curragh should be fascinating especially if we get a faster surface. Of course Wings of Desire could also improve for a flatter track - not wholey convinced beforehand Epsom was going to suit him as he is a heavy topped horse and I think he too has run with credit.
Ulysses for me looked like the horse most unsuited by the ground - be interesting to see where Stoute goes next with him - they obviously rate him very highly and I wonder if he always had the King Ed VII on the agenda for him but switched him once Midterm was out?
 
reet hard said:
Considering the 4 out the rear early finished 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th, he probably didn't make too bad a fist of it. Had to switch round a couple before he made his run, but still had his chance, had he been good enough.
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The jockey , however, who gave the horse the textbook Piggott - sit middle division, ease up into fifth or sixth riding the home turn - take it up 2 out ride won .
 
Cruella said:
I was on the wrong Sea The Stars horse! Delighted he has sired a Derby winner.

I'm still not convinced this is a classic crop of 3yo colts but first and second are two nice improving unexposed horses. Undeniably USAR was given too much to do but I think the best horse won.

I'm not entirely sure Harzand pulled up 100% sound, hope he's okay. Wouldn't be surprising if he was feeling his foot a little bit, I guess.
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He 100% wasn't sound on parade afterwards - there was a moment where Pat glanced down and looked uncomfortable about being onboard still. Hopefully just feeling his foot.
 
Ryan and Frankie sat out rear early.
both were on inexperienced horses with more to come in future.
Gosden thinking the long game with WOD i imagine.
APOB has the memory of Ruler Of The World winning and having his head cooked in the process; now at 10K stud fee "best value in Europe " not much good if you have expectations of a 30K fee.
So is it better to sit out back, avoid the hassle, come late and pick up the pieces knowing that you have a horse tomorrow and for the future ?
D K Weld has not had a stallion of note come through his academy yet ( Theatrical's U.S. career more important stud wise than his European one imo) so A Derby win is his main consideration if horse is good enough; Aga Khan stallions rarely are high fee/ high coverings per season commercial variety so no pressure there either.
Hopefully all present for Curragh rematch.
 
I'm sure Ryan is sitting at home thinking this is one derby he should have won. Had he been a couple of lengths closer to the first two at Tattenham corner he wouldn't have had to pull wide. He made up a lot of ground very quickly and had Ryan not gone for it in the last furlong I think his momentum would have carried past the winner. The horse got tired ploughing through the well worn ground and reading aidens body language you could tell the lads felt the horse should have won. Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
 
FWIW, I plan to forgive Massaat his disappointing show yesterday. I'm also prepared to allow him another chance to prove 12f is not beyond him.

I suspect a reason will emerge for yesterday. It may be that he left it at Lingfield. I honestly don't think Richard Hills would have sent such a strong message to Clare Balding ahead of the race regarding Massaat's chances (something along the lines of "make absolutely no mistake, this horse will win the Derby"). HIlls has been connected to many of Sheikh Hamdan's elite for a couple of decades so the horse must have done something extraordinary at Lingfield.

I'm prepared to pay to find out in due course.
 
Massaat was keen early and went with a pace that did those near the front no good at all. The first four into the straight were Port Douglas (final position 14th), Cloth of Stars (8th), Massaat (9th) and Moonlight Magic (16th and last).
 
I think it is fair to say they went too quick up front on that ground but US Army Ranger did not look to be struggling to go the gallop he appeared to be always travelling . It is almost as if Moore has become so much on a pedestal that people do not dare criticise him any more . Watching the 1986 Derby recording on YT for which poor Greville Starkey got so much stick - the horse loses his place and Starkey is nudging him before the home turn and he takes longer to pick up than US Army Ranger but his finishing effort is more sustained . There is very little difference visually between the two rides .
 
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