The Derby

Winner should have been 2nd to at worst 4th fave. Goes off at 16/1. Maybe people thought Godolphin would never have a Derby winner.
 
Good winner good comeback...must say the prices availsble for my selection for 3rd or 4th place were unreal....wish we had a Derby every day ;0)
 
brendanr said:
Young Rascal is a legitimate contender.

If one looks at the nascent stride patterns and cadence research that Simon Rowlands is doing you would have your doubt whether SW will actually stay.
Currently way too short in any case
I find this potential angle one of the more interesting of the last years.
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It is still nascent but the stride pattern and cadence research looks quite promising.
Actually had Masar as a more certain stayer than Saxon Warrior.
Don't think SW did not stay but would not have beaten the winner in any circumstances imo.
 
One for pedigree buffs as Urban Sea appears in both sides of his pedigree as Granddam of New Approach and great grand dam of Masar's dam; a similar cross that Danehill has to Natalma.
That Cape Cross and Lammtara is on dam's page rounds off the Godolphin story nicely
Sire prospects pretty good.
RPR within one pound of Sea The Stars' Derby rating.
Typical of me had him backed in 2000 Guineas and deserted him here !
Just the result racing needs with Sheikh Og having the runner up ,Qatar the third and Ballydoyle in minor roles.
 
Will be interesting to see where they go next with Saxon Warrior.
Leger plan for the 2nd. Roaring Lion should be a great spin in the Eclipse.
Fair play to the winner. Whether they stay at 12 or come back to 10.
 
He was also quite edgy before the race .
Hazapour ran too freely so did not stay after looking the one to beat early in the straight.
All in all there are a few horses that we will be hearing of again before the season is out.
 
It seems the Derby offers a barometer of the atmosphere on the forum.

Only two pages to an entire thread on 'the world's greatest flat race' and only half-a-dozen post-race comments.

Like so many forumites, I'm very much more a fan of the jumps but surely the race deserves more than that?

My own excuse is that I've been off visiting family since early on Sunday but generally don't say much until the midweek anyway, once I've had time to crunch number and back-check form.

So I'll say more later today probably but in the meantime how do people rate this year's race as a whole or the individual runners? I think we saw a good winner of an average race but whether the numbers will confirm that we'll see.
 
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Grey said:
Is this what you meant to say? Most on here will assume that it is.
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No, I meant cut as in give in the ground, moistness underfoot as he got at both Epsom and Newmarket for the Craven meeting (granted that the official going doesn't reflect that). Though I'm all for snipping Derby winners.
 
Desert Orchid said:
It seems the Derby offers a barometer of the atmosphere on the forum.

Only two pages to an entire thread on 'the world's greatest flat race' and only half-a-dozen post-race comments.

Like so many forumites, I'm very much more a fan of the jumps but surely the race deserves more than that?

My own excuse is that I've been off visiting family since early on Sunday but generally don't say much until the midweek anyway, once I've had time to crunch number and back-check form.

So I'll say more later today probably but in the meantime how do people rate this year's race as a whole or the individual runners? I think we saw a good winner of an average race but whether the numbers will confirm that we'll see.
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Last year’s Derby thread ran to six pages. I started it. I was immediately the subject of unwarranted allegations of aftertiming by one member which cheesed me off to such an extent that I haven’t posted since that day. And I won’t post again. Call me over-sensitive but my view is: why put yourself through it?
 
gus said:
Last year’s Derby thread ran to six pages. I started it. I was immediately the subject of unwarranted allegations of aftertiming by one member which cheesed me off to such an extent that I haven’t posted since that day. And I won’t post again. Call me over-sensitive but my view is: why put yourself through it?
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He doesn't post here very much any more, so feel free to start posting again. I'll post more often when I have something interesting to say - which isn't very often.
 
It's a feeling I genuinely understand, Gus.

I have five or six people on ignore. It makes forum life so much easier.
 
Desert Orchid said:
So I'll say more later today probably but in the meantime how do people rate this year's race as a whole or the individual runners? I think we saw a good winner of an average race but whether the numbers will confirm that we'll see.
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I'm thinking maybe it was just an ordinary race after all, just as I'd said after the Guineas - although that only occurred to me as I write so it wasn't something that was in my mind as I worked.

Friday's times point to slow ground, which we all knew it was, but I have a minus going allowance for the Saturday, indicating good going.

I have Masar only 12lbs faster than the winner of the 10f handicap Connect (new OR 105) and 15lbs faster than the C&D winner Dash Of Spice, who appears to have got a soft lead, won despite bursting a blood vessel and who has gone up to 98.

I shudder to think what Cracksman might do to him should they meet later in the season.
 
An afterthought, only 12 declared? Are other trainers/owners being put off when they see so many from one stable in there and seemingly a pace maker put it, and although no horse appeared to be used as a pacemaker, could there have been the thought of that? I can sort of understand why people don't enter when they look at either things like that, or there's a red hot favourite in there, but if you're not in it, you can't win it, and in my humble opinion , people should go for it and not be put off. Anything can happen on the day.
 
The race lost a lot of it`s popular appeal when it was moved from Wednesday to Saturday. The average betting shop punter regards it as not much more than another race. And with half the field running for one stable the disenchantment grows!
 
Desperate Dan said:
The race lost a lot of it`s popular appeal when it was moved from Wednesday to Saturday.
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Not for me. I welcomed the change and much prefer the race on a Saturday. I could rarely get to see the race when it was midweek due to work. I don't know if it was a local holiday but I don't see how so many could get to the track without taking time off work. Now that I'm long since retired I still have no desire to see it revert to a Wednesday.


Desperate Dan said:
The average betting shop punter regards it as not much more than another race.
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I think that's pretty much the case with every big race nowadays, bar maybe the Grand National. The nature of the betting shop punter has changed, I reckon, although maybe I'm not the best person to judge as I seldom go into a shop. However, on the few recent occasions I've been in, they've been sparsely populated with maybe one guy watching virtual racing, one playing a puggy and me getting a free read at the RP. Gone, it seems, are the days of two or three punters standing together discussing the respective chances of runners in races.

Desperate Dan said:
And with half the field running for one stable the disenchantment grows!
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Is it disenchantment, though? Does it put people off if Elliott has eight in one NH race? Or Nicholls/Henderson with multiple entries in big races? This year's smallish field might be no more than a blip.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is it disenchantment, though? Does it put people off if Elliott has eight in one NH race? Or Nicholls/Henderson with multiple entries in big races? This year's smallish field might be no more than a blip.
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I think it does....definitely seems to be a lack of runners from other stables when one trainer does this, and again from a personal point of view, it really doesn't help the sport. I appreciate they have big yards, but as on Saturday, at least two of those horses were not good enough to be in the race. I saw 5 runners from one yard in the decs, and thought it was just overkill. The commentators, who all day went on about nothing else other than SW, actually said certain horses would be used to keep other horses out of the race ( not verbatim) .
 
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All the more reason to celebrate a Derby winner from other than Ballydoyle.
It can be done if you have the goods.
For me the first five horses are all decent and once the race has not taken its toll they will represent their crop well through the year.
 
When O'Brien runs four or five, it significantly reduces the chances of the smaller trainer picking up some good prizemoney, and if they run anyway the handicapper takes a dim view and over-penalises a horse because its trainer thinks its a good idea to run in a Derby. It's an absolute no win for the smaller stables.

If my trainer suggested my three year old run in those circumstance I'd be questioning why. Bear in mind I've paid out tens of thousands for the horse and I'm paying him the thick end of two and half thousand a month for him to train and place it to best advantage. Running in the Derby in those circumstances should be well down the agenda of races under consideration.

On the other hand if he convinced me my horse was going there with a real chance I wouldn't stop pinching myself and then I'd be the first through Epsom's gates on Saturday morning.
 
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G-G said:
An afterthought, only 12 declared? Are other trainers/owners being put off when they see so many from one stable in there and seemingly a pace maker put it, and although no horse appeared to be used as a pacemaker, could there have been the thought of that? I can sort of understand why people don't enter when they look at either things like that, or there's a red hot favourite in there, but if you're not in it, you can't win it, and in my humble opinion , people should go for it and not be put off. Anything can happen on the day.
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What horses do we think should have been there that weren't?
 
Probably none of the serious ones. I suppose one or two genuinely promising ones might not have made it due to injury or backwardness at this stage but that's about it. There didn't seem to be any social runners this year, as I said before, although mine ran like one...
 
G-G said:
An afterthought, only 12 declared? Are other trainers/owners being put off when they see so many from one stable in there and seemingly a pace maker put it, and although no horse appeared to be used as a pacemaker, could there have been the thought of that? I can sort of understand why people don't enter when they look at either things like that, or there's a red hot favourite in there, but if you're not in it, you can't win it, and in my humble opinion , people should go for it and not be put off. Anything can happen on the day.
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Alternatively; it could be that it is just a sh!te year for middle distance 3YOs?
 
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