The Derby

Euronymous said:
I was considering backing him yesterday when he was 4s but that's gone. Of the front lot in the marker I prefer him to Military Order (not convinced quality wise). Passenger looks a non stayer to me and Arrest maybe a Leger type? It's a cliche but he is the only Group 1 winner amongst that lot. Now he's shortened I doubt I'll be betting the race.
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I liked that last run from Military Order. Stronger pace and a stiffer test can only help aswell. Whether the form was strong, time will tell. Both pulled well clear and can see the 2nd running well aswell.
As for Arrest, not sure he's that slow. Remember seeing his debut over 7f on decent ground. Nostrum who I like won that day with Arrest back in 3rd. He ran a lovely race.
These Frankels will have a say!

And in the Oaks...... and in the Coronation!
 
I’m on Military Order, Passenger and San Antonio, the latter two ew at much bigger prices. Auguste may well improve substantially on his Guineas run but I get oh so weary of AOB talking up his horses just to make them into stallions and they often fall flat. I’m not saying he’s going to but physically the horse didn’t impress at Newmarket whereas I was very taken with Military Order most especially with the way he handled a bend.
 
On the basis the trainers know what they are doing I’ll go for Passenger, Auguste Rodin (if Ryan Moore is aboard) and Arrest
 
One very big concern is the planned disruption by the AR idiots again. Despite the JC taking out an injunction, it’s going to be nigh on impossible to police Epsom. Expect it to be seriously impacted.
 
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Maxbet said:
Kingscote had the chance to go through a gap moments before he got boxed in by Atzeni...
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Aye,the inside was wide open,too. Reckon he ceded 3-4l to the winner through his tardiness - a piece more than he was beaten by.
 
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Why is a 2000 Guineas 12th heading the market for The Derby? You finish 12th in the major trial for The Derby - after being “slightly hampered 6f out” - you don’t win The Derby. Unless the trainer is putting us all away.
 
reet hard said:
The annual 'knock the Derby form' is starting early this year.:lol:
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2022: "I think if there is a superstar waiting to happen it will be either [Desert Crown] or Nations Pride, maybe even both will prove above average." That's hardly knocking the race.

2021: "I’m running out of synonyms for “crap” in relation to this year’s 3yos and this looks to me like the worst Derby since Oath’s. I can see why people liked Bolshoi Ballet’s last win but as I keep saying, he got an unusually aggressive ride that day for a Ballydoyle ‘triallist’. ... I reckon a lot of them are rated on historical ratings for the races they won rather than for what they actually beat on the day. ... Losing High Definition [NR] was a big blow ... I had Ayadar at 50/1 and cashed out for a small profit which I then reinvested at 70 on the exchange so that’s another risk-free interest albeit a more forlorn one." Just being realistic...

2020: I didn't do a document that day (run in July) But Serpentine (25/1) beat 50/1 Khalifa Sat and 66/1 Amhran Na Bhfiann and what did they subsequently achieve? (If memory serves, I rated Serpentine's run quite highly.)

2019: Anthony Van Dyck was top rated on ORs on 118 but it would be another year before his rating would get past 120.

The intention isn't to 'knock' the form; it's to assess it accurately. If it happens to be underwhelming shouldn't I be able to proffer an opinion along those lines?

I'm always looking for the race to throw up a superstar but you need to go back to Golden Horn in 2015 and Sea The Stars six years before that for the last two really high class winners.
 
Always be willing to forgive a horse one bad run, even a Coolmore horse, even in a Guineas. Maybe especially in a Guineas.

I think it's Paul Kealy in the Weekender who details the stats for AOB disappointments in G1s returning in a G1. Pretty impressive stats, it has to be said.
 
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From the RP:
O'Brien explained: "There were a lot of factors that happened in Newmarket that we couldn't control and we haven't seen anything since to suggest why we should veer from our original plan. Running him over that short a trip meant every single beat had to go his way and instead every single beat went the opposite way. He is a beautiful moving horse so soft ground was always going to be a worry for him. The trip was going to be plenty short for him too.

"He needed a clear run and, when Little Big Bear got galloped into, he wiped out Ryan and then Ryan got stuck in a pocket and there was no pace in the race either.

"So many things went wrong. And we were going to fly on the morning and two days before that all changed and we couldn't do that. Any one of those things could have been detrimental by themselves but they all landed on him on the one day."
 
reet hard said:
From the RP:
O'Brien explained: "There were a lot of factors that happened in Newmarket that we couldn't control and we haven't seen anything since to suggest why we should veer from our original plan. Running him over that short a trip meant every single beat had to go his way and instead every single beat went the opposite way. He is a beautiful moving horse so soft ground was always going to be a worry for him. The trip was going to be plenty short for him too.

"He needed a clear run and, when Little Big Bear got galloped into, he wiped out Ryan and then Ryan got stuck in a pocket and there was no pace in the race either.

"So many things went wrong. And we were going to fly on the morning and two days before that all changed and we couldn't do that. Any one of those things could have been detrimental by themselves but they all landed on him on the one day."
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There are holes in that argument, I reckon.


  • The trip – he insisted beforehand the horse wasn’t short of pace. I can’t recall if he actually said the horse would win a July Cup but he seemed sure the trip wasn’t an issue.
  • The ground – he’d won the Futurity in soft ground. Yes, he’s always said the horse would be better on good ground but the Futurity was the single best bit of form by any juvenile last season.
  • No pace in the race – that might account for the horse not doing well in the last three furlongs but it doesn’t excuse not being able to go a slow pace in the first five furlongs. A slow pace suits stayers at that stage as they shouldn’t be out of their comfort zone. Stayers run slower than sprinters.


The logistical issues regarding travel, etc, I can accept as an excuse. Changes in travel plans can knock me sideways so it's something I understand. I'd be more inclined to accept that as the main reason for the horse not running its race and making it easy to forgive a poor show. The rest of it doesn't add up, in my opinion.

And I wouldn't be the least surprised if the real Auguste Rodin turned up here and did a Shergar. I might even back him!
 
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