The Derby

it will be interesting to see what the sectionals say. An above-average winner of a below average race.[/QUOTE said:
Run in a quick time, steady early, but a solid pace afterwards, though the maths are unlikely to show it.
Time will probably tell it was decent Derby,too.
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jinnyj said:
Fair play. An incredible performance by the winner and a pretty damn hefty one by the second. Hats off to AOB...for once he wasn’t talking the horse up. And an excellent ride by Ryan too.
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Reminded me of Lester at his very best. Kept the horse balanced and came with smooth,gradual acceleration. If it was run at a true pace instead of stop start he would have won very easily IMHO. Great run by the second. The eclipse could be a belter if Emily upjohn turns up and the second and the foxes and passenger turn up. Continuous must have a decent shout in the prix du jockey club tomorrow I would think.
 
edgt said:
Great result for Coolmore and World racing.
APOB made the point that Auguste was a mirror image of Sunday Silence, his grandsire, a horse the Americans had no interest in.
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Loved that horse. I get quite emotional seeing his grandson!
 
Reckon Comtinuous will endorse the Derby form in the French version (305 Chantilly) today & I've taken the 4/1 to find out.
 
Good luck, reet. I've backed the French Guineas winner (10/1 ew). He looks to have the best form in the race and his dosage profile points to improvement at this trip. The price just looks twice as big as maybe it should be.
 
On first impressions, definitely. I'll be interested in the sectionals.

They must have gone pretty fast for the winner to have come from last but the second made most and saw off the others. I was curious watching the race regarding the in-race positions of those ridden by Dettori, Moore and Barzalona. Also the Juddmonte runner out wide. They were unable to challenge in the final two furlongs so did they go too fast? The Barzalona horse was prominent early but the jockey let him settle back into the final third before running/staying on past the beaten horses, so did he realise the pace was too fast early?

Big Rock maybe deserve extra credit if he went fast from the front. Did he just overdo it or did he just not quite get home?

Good race and maybe more questions [for now] than answers.
 
No messing about from the 2nd who had the others cooked. The 3rd would have been closer to the 2nd with a run.
The winner though was on the snaff while the others were rowing along, so it certainly didn't fall in his lap. He was strong at the line aswell.

He's a Cracksman aswell which is a plus too.
 
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Back to Epsom...

By fvck, they must have been flying down that home straight. I know the closing par is some way above 100% because of the nature of the track but even the ones being eased off weren't slowing down much. And the first three all posted sub-11s ante-penultimate and penultimate furlongs.

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For comparative purposes, this is the CD handicap:


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By fvck, they must have been flying down that home straight. I know the closing par is some way above 100% because of the nature of the track but even the ones being eased off weren't slowing down much. And the first three all posted sub-11s ante-penultimate and penultimate furlongs.




Par for a true run race for the last 3 furlongs at Epsom over 12f is 108%

That looks like a fast finish, 116%, suggesting the early pace was not strong. Speedy rather than stamina sapping
 
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Absolute ace ride from Ryan, brilliant from the second as well. Jockey must have thought all his dreams had come true for almost a furlong.
Adian said only 6 foals from that last crop of Deep Impact so fate obviously stepping in there. I would ask why send the mare out there having 'dismissed' any European or US based stallions? I know they can afford it and cost no object but looking at £60k plus to get her out there and back on plane fares alone never mind anything else, but they really thought no other stallions worth giving a go? Wil delve into return of mares to see where they went subsequently.
 
G-G said:
Absolute ace ride from Ryan, brilliant from the second as well. Jockey must have thought all his dreams had come true for almost a furlong.
Adian said only 6 foals from that last crop of Deep Impact so fate obviously stepping in there. I would ask why send the mare out there having 'dismissed' any European or US based stallions? I know they can afford it and cost no object but looking at £60k plus to get her out there and back on plane fares alone never mind anything else, but they really thought no other stallions worth giving a go? Wil delve into return of mares to see where they went subsequently.
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I heard AOB say it was a brilliant ride but I can't help thinking it must have down to over-confidence in the horse. For me, the sectionals are saying he was not well placed for how the race was panning out. If he knew he had a machine under him, fair enough, but why take such a chance in the Derby when you only get one go at it. I'd have loved to have seen what Piggott or Dettori or Cauthen would have done on the horse. I reckon they'd have had him in the first six through the race - assuming they went the pace of yesterday, obviously, and would have won more easily, in the case of Piggott winning easily, Nijinsky-style, in the case of Dettori more like Authorized and Cauthen would have made the horse look like Shergar.

As for the runner-up, the jockey was clearly angry with himself after the race, admitting he went too soon. Fair gave me a wee shudder, mind... :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
I heard AOB say it was a brilliant ride but I can't help thinking it must have down to over-confidence in the horse. For me, the sectionals are saying he was not well placed for how the race was panning out. If he knew he had a machine under him, fair enough, but why take such a chance in the Derby when you only get one go at it. I'd have loved to have seen what Piggott or Dettori or Cauthen would have done on the horse. I reckon they'd have had him in the first six through the race - assuming they went the pace of yesterday, obviously, and would have won more easily, in the case of Piggott winning easily, Nijinsky-style, in the case of Dettori more like Authorized and Cauthen would have made the horse look like Shergar.

As for the runner-up, the jockey was clearly angry with himself after the race, admitting he went too soon. Fair gave me a wee shudder, mind... :)
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Moore is a class act in the saddle. Joy to watch him.

The 2nd has pretty much come from a similar position back in the field to the winner. He just kicked slightly earlier. Be very hard to crab the winning ride!
 
G-G said:
Absolute ace ride from Ryan, brilliant from the second as well. Jockey must have thought all his dreams had come true for almost a furlong.
Adian said only 6 foals from that last crop of Deep Impact so fate obviously stepping in there.
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6 registered horses in Europe and 6 in Japan from a book of 24 mares.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I heard AOB say it was a brilliant ride but I can't help thinking it must have down to over-confidence in the horse. For me, the sectionals are saying he was not well placed for how the race was panning out. If he knew he had a machine under him, fair enough, but why take such a chance in the Derby when you only get one go at it. I'd have loved to have seen what Piggott or Dettori or Cauthen would have done on the horse. I reckon they'd have had him in the first six through the race - assuming they went the pace of yesterday, obviously, and would have won more easily, in the case of Piggott winning easily, Nijinsky-style, in the case of Dettori more like Authorized and Cauthen would have made the horse look like Shergar.

As for the runner-up, the jockey was clearly angry with himself after the race, admitting he went too soon. Fair gave me a wee shudder, mind...
:)
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Did what he's paid for,and did it well.
Your Ryan Moore bias is eating your brain.
 
reet hard said:
Your Ryan Moore bias is eating your brain.
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I really wouldn't like to think so but remain open to the possibility.

As you know, I did back Auguste Rodin and I'm always checking where my [backed] horses are in a race. The fact that Frankie went to the front early had me turning to Mrs O and saying that it was unusual as he usually rides the Derby course like Piggott. When she's watching with me I usually get up and point to where my horses are in a race and at the top of the hill I pointed to AR and said, "I think the pace is slow and if it is then that one's in the wrong position."

I do think the horse must be a lot better than the winning margin and will be rating it accordingly.

My big bets on the day were Lucander (33/1) and Mr Wagyu (11/2). I'd written Lucander off after two furlongs because of his position through the race but, as I discussed with outsider, I was very encouraged that Mr Wagyu got prominent early. It turned out the pace was fast and he was done by others coming from the back.

My question for myself is should I be critical of Mr Wagyu's rider for misjudging the pace up front?

That cost me a fair bit but I got a profit on the place portion of the double with Lucander (paid 15/1, from memory) and maybe that's why I'm not going to trash the guy.

I still think AR overcame a poor tactical ride from a sectional perspective but Moore obviously knows the horse and was probably supremely confident he was going to win regardless.
 
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That's fair enough. There's as much down to opinion when it comes to race reading as watching football.

Sometimes we're right, sometimes we're wrong. None of us has exclusivity on being right.
 
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