The Derby

Desert Orchid said:
There are holes in that argument, I reckon.


  • The trip – he insisted beforehand the horse wasn’t short of pace. I can’t recall if he actually said the horse would win a July Cup but he seemed sure the trip wasn’t an issue.
  • The ground – he’d won the Futurity in soft ground. Yes, he’s always said the horse would be better on good ground but the Futurity was the single best bit of form by any juvenile last season.
  • No pace in the race – that might account for the horse not doing well in the last three furlongs but it doesn’t excuse not being able to go a slow pace in the first five furlongs. A slow pace suits stayers at that stage as they shouldn’t be out of their comfort zone. Stayers run slower than sprinters.


The logistical issues regarding travel, etc, I can accept as an excuse. Changes in travel plans can knock me sideways so it's something I understand. I'd be more inclined to accept that as the main reason for the horse not running its race and making it easy to forgive a poor show. The rest of it doesn't add up, in my opinion.

And I wouldn't be the least surprised if the real Auguste Rodin turned up here and did a Shergar. I might even back him!
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A) He was denied a clear run,which was probably essential.
B)His pegigree absolutely screams fast ground.
C) see A).
D) the horse woulldn't know the travel plans.

I've already taken the 11/4 - that's 2 I've bet in the race, and I'll be surprised if I haven't netted the winner.
 
The travel plan bit I’ll explain.

AOBs horses pretty much always travel over on the morning of a race (unless it’s the US), so they are not used to staying in a different stable overnight. Because of the disruption to flights, for the Guineas they had to fly over the day before therefore the horses had to spend a night in the racecourse stables. Most horses handle this fine but if as he says they are not used to this method, they may possibly have become unsettled by it.
 
The horse wouldn't know the travel plans but there would be a normal routine for him that wasn't adhered to. An intelligent animal can pick up on things like that and worry.

Racing Results | 16:40 Newmarket | Sat 6 May 2023 (racingtv.com)
(Video link)

For the life of me, I have to say I cannot see at any time that he didn't get a clear run. There was a momentary tightening with Royal Scotsman and Charyn as they passed the six pole but nothing that would amount to "hampering". Check the video. He then made his move at the same time as Royal Scotsman and went with him for about two furlongs before petering out and being looked after. Royal Scotsman had a far more troubled passage in the race.

Looking at the race again, it was more promising than I'd remembered.

I think we're agreeing on the same prognosis but differing on the diagnosis.

Either way, it's a run that's easily forgiven and hopefully we'll see the real deal on Saturday.

Edit - jinnyj was posting her message as I was typing.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Looking at the race again, it was more promising than I'd remembered.
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It wasn't promising at all. Essentially you have to completely write the run off and believe that the horse will appreciate better ground, that AOB has him right and that he's best 1m4 horse in the race (or at least very close to it).

I don't think the Doncaster run was anything exceptional and wasn't impressed in seeing the horse in the flesh. He could still win a sub-par Derby but the price seems very skinny to me.
 
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He appeared to be going comfortably for the first half mile and made his move at the same stage as Royal Scotsman. That's what I thought was promising. He was briefly ahead of that one before hitting a flat spot and at that stage really Moore was starting to just go through the motions before easing off.

It makes it all the easier for me to forgive the run.
 
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jinnyj said:
The travel plan bit I’ll explain.

AOBs horses pretty much always travel over on the morning of a race (unless it’s the US), so they are not used to staying in a different stable overnight. Because of the disruption to flights, for the Guineas they had to fly over the day before therefore the horses had to spend a night in the racecourse stables. Most horses handle this fine but if as he says they are not used to this method, they may possibly have become unsettled by it.
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Well it's coming over early again.friday morning.
 
White Birch would definitely win if the race was run at Killarney, such is the trainer's record there. He has a chance here also.
Arrest's dam was bought from Aga Khan's end of year dispersal in 2010 for 2,000 Euro.
Her foals, sold as foals, have yielded 1,300,000 plus for her present owner.
Students at Limerick Students Day races 2011 would have witnessed Waipiro's dam London Plane finish third in a maiden race behind the dam of Awtaad, Irish 2000 Gns winner.
The Foxes traces to Fall Aspen, a true blue hen dam of Timber Country( Preakness Stakes )Hamas ( July Cup) and Mazzacano (Goodwood Cup)
Sprewell , another son of Churchill is possibly as impressive Derby Trial winner as Military Order.
Should the latter win the possibility of Derby winning full brothers taking each other on would be something to savour, even for fervent NH fans !
Enjoy the race, every horse has a story unique to them.
 
jinnyj said:
The travel plan bit I’ll explain.

AOBs horses pretty much always travel over on the morning of a race (unless it’s the US), so they are not used to staying in a different stable overnight. Because of the disruption to flights, for the Guineas they had to fly over the day before therefore the horses had to spend a night in the racecourse stables. Most horses handle this fine but if as he says they are not used to this method, they may possibly have become unsettled by it.
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Can you clear some room in your PM please? Thanks muchly :)
 
Euronymous said:
I was considering backing him yesterday when he was 4s but that's gone. Of the front lot in the marker I prefer him to Military Order (not convinced quality wise). Passenger looks a non stayer to me and Arrest maybe a Leger type? It's a cliche but he is the only Group 1 winner amongst that lot. Now he's shortened I doubt I'll be betting the race.
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Did a relative deep dive on the race this morning and changed my mind a little bit. I think Military Order is solid at around 9/2 - I think the horses he beat at Newbury are group 3 type animals.
 
I've gradually come round to the conclusion that Auguste Rodin looks a laydown,and 7/2 is a remarkable price.
 
I knocked some ratings up just to give me some of idea what looks a "value" spot in this.

125 Auguste Rodin
125 The Foxes
123 White Birch
123 Dubai Mile
122 Arrest
120 Passenger
120 Sprewell
120 San Antonio
120 King Of Steel
115 Military Order
115 Artistic Star
114 Waipiro
110 Adelaide River
107 Dear My Friend

Superior Handicap Information Totals is what I call them:)

Looking at the odds compared with the ratings I'll be having a tenner on The Foxes at 14.0, White Birch at 15.0, Dubai Mile 24.0.

Good luck to all with your bets, lets hope for a trouble free day.
 
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Bookies in feeding frenzy on the Frankie factor, and the herd following them,too.
 
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Fair play. An incredible performance by the winner and a pretty damn hefty one by the second. Hats off to AOB...for once he wasn’t talking the horse up. And an excellent ride by Ryan too.
 
Desert Orchid said:
King Of Steel boosted to 130/1.
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Oooooooohhhhhh :cool:

Still, I did back the winner as well.

Edit - I should also say, if Auguste Rodin hadn't got past KOS I'd have been on here slating him for being too far back off a slow pace. The winner is better than the bare form and it will be interesting to see what the sectionals say.

An above-average winner of a below average race.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Oooooooohhhhhh :cool:

Still, I did back the winner as well.
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I took 14/1 4 places for 2 quid.....thought he looked a proper horse 1st time up and was on the wrong side of the course when beaten in the futurity........David Loughnane must be sick as a parrot having lost him to Roger Varian
 
Marb said:
Maybe Auguste Rodin just wins?

If anyone wants to back Slipofthepen to show their solidarity and allegiance to The King then I wouldn't put you off. :) :) :)
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I named the winner within three words of the thread, hooray! :)
 
A great performance by horse, jockey,and trainer

Best result of the day though was by Surrey police ensuring the race wasn’t disrupted by the Animal Rights nutters


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Agree with last comment completely but news just breaking that one of the idiots actually jumped over onto the track at Tattenham Corner as the race was running (you can see big screen showing horses about two furlongs into the race). Fortunately both the police and security caught him very quickly. It could have been potentially horrendous.
 
Except Deep Impact died in 2019 so that might be tricky! AR was one of his last six foals.
 
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