The election 2015

EC1 said:
The headline is all powerful...what would have happened in the last election if this one headline would have appeared for instance one week before the election...."Tories lay out their plans to remove £1200 on average from all Tax Credit Recipients"

just on that one damaging headline..do you think it would have changed the election result?

the detail of teh previous 4 years would have been made irrelevant..just on one headline.
Click to expand...

and the headline that they were putting up the minimum wage by quite a margin to compensate?

i don't think they would have lost in truth. Not with both headlines. The tax credits are viewed by many as a nonsense. Subsidising mike ashley and paying credit to earners on £55k a year? An over complicated system which employs thousands of civil servants unnecessarily?

milliband was never seen as credible and never even attempted to reach out to the seats that needed winning.
 
but the point is Clive..they planned to take the credits first..then it was to be recovered over time...the headline would have influenced people..the headline would have changed views/votes yes? Even the fine detail would have told them that for a long period of time that money would be gone from their weekly total without a replacement

the fact that no party wanted to discuss where the actual cuts were coming from tells you they were all scared of discussing it ..never mind getting a headline..every time any leader was asked about where the cuts were coming from..they all ducked the issue..because they knew it was a vote loser in what was deemed a close run race. In fact Cameron actually said it wasn't coming from tax credits...which again could have gained them votes unfairly...because the suspicion would have been tax credits was the area where any of them would have gone...so by dispelling that fear people plumped for them.

again..i'm not talking about fine detail..i'm just highlighting that headlines in politics rule the roost..because apathy of politics decrees nothing else really gets through to the voter
 
Last edited:
The point is that when if a party comes in and says we are going to double NHS spending and cut taxes by a third then voters are not stupid. It's trust. They don't expect the fine detail of promises to be spot on but they trusted brown and blair and now osbourne

voters are more intelligent and more aware than most political fanatics because they are frequently less idealogical and take a helicopter view ratehr than idelogical

For instance , you dont have to know the fine detail to know that corbyns team will instinctively be very very hostile to all business. You do not need to be an economist to know that that is bad for the economy. And you don't have to think to hard to work out what the result of that will be
 
its not just knowing fine detail though...its having an interest at all in it..business people obviously will have that interest ..but the majority of people who do not run businesses won't look too deeply into it through lack of interest. Most people only look at the budget to see how it affects their pockets..they then probably ignore politics until the next election comaes along. Then when we do have have an election...in the run up to it..the major call is..oh i'll be glad when the election is over..i'm sick of hearing about it.

that is the main attitude of a large number of people in this country..you are judging people's interest by your own and what other people in business level of interest is..its not in the main of interest..to any level of detail anyway. I'll say again..look at this thread..there are about 10 of us ..at most that post here..probably only 5 regularly...out of a membership of about what..oh i don't know..1000+. There were 1200 viewing in April for instance. People generally just get on with life and find politics boring and of no interest to them..even though it is of great importance to them..as they find out every now and then ..in the pocket
 
Last edited:
I'm busy today but I've got to take apart the first line

to suggest that only businessmen and women are affected by policies and attitude towards business is ludicrous. This is terrible stuff

most people in this country work for the private sector. It affects everyone if business does not develop at grass roots and existing corporations downsize or leave this economy
 
clivex said:
I'm busy today but I've got to take apart the first line

to suggest that only businessmen and women are affected by policies and attitude towards business is ludicrous. This is terrible stuff
Click to expand...

i'll say again..stop misquoting me so you can hand out a retribution.....i am getting seriously fed up with this.

i never said "affected".

read what i say..don't invent it.

terrible stuff..is constantly misquoting people to hand out put downs
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
its not just knowing fine detail though...its having an interest at all in it..business people obviously will have that interest ..but the majority of people who do not run businesses won't look too deeply into it through lack of interest. Most people only look at the budget to see how it affects their pockets..they then probably ignore politics until the next election comaes along. Then when we do have have an election...in the run up to it..the major call is..oh i'll be glad when the election is over..i'm sick of hearing about it.

that is the main attitude of a large number of people in this country..you are judging people's interest by your own and what other people in business level of interest is..its not in the main of interest..to any level of detail anyway. I'll say again..look at this thread..there are about 10 of us ..at most that post here..probably only 5 regularly...out of a membership of about what..oh i don't know..1000+. There were 1200 viewing in April for instance. People generally just get on with life and find politics boring and of no interest to them..even though it is of great importance to them..as they find out every now and then ..in the pocket
Click to expand...
 
Ok fair enough but I disagree entirely. In fact many polls are clear on this point and as I said most voters are not taken in by immediate money in pocket

why are most backing austerity measures in the polls?

most voters don't need to "look deeply" to know what the effect of an anti business adminstration will be and how it will affect them.
 
do you think people in the street that have little in depth interest..know that Labour is anti business?

polls aren't going to tell you anything on this issue..they are going to ask so many people..only those interested will answer either way..you will get many saying..i'm not bothered about politics thanks..so whatever poll you set you will only be asking 1000 "interested" people.

polls only reflect the view if people respond to the question..my argument is that many will respond with..not interested

i know its very important to you Clive...speed figures are to me:)..but unfortunately people don't share our interests to the same degree. Apart from people who run their own business..most folk aren't that bothered imo...i can't prove that but i judge it on a number of observations throughout 50 years of living. The last place i worked had a wide spread of people..there were only 2 people i knew that ever talked about politics in the whole place..about 130 people. Strictly come dancing..IACGMOOH..but not politics. Strangely enough..probably similar % to the interest shown on this forum.

Maybe we need a poll where people are asked simply..are you interested in politics?
 
Last edited:
EC1 said:
Maybe we need a poll where people are asked simply..are you interested in politics?
Click to expand...

Most polls will nearly always contain a "don't know" or "neither agree nor disagree" option. They'll also use Likert scales in an attempt to draw out the strength of feeling
 
EC1 said:
oh dear..you need to see the interview with her Clive..its a toss up who is worse for Labour..her or Corbyn
Click to expand...

I thought Labour took a decision a few weeks ago to try and hide her (so far as that's possible). I think she's worse then Corbyn
 
EC1 said:
do you think people in the street that have little in depth interest..know that Labour is anti business?

polls aren't going to tell you anything on this issue..they are going to ask so many people..only those interested will answer either way..you will get many saying..i'm not bothered about politics thanks..so whatever poll you set you will only be asking 1000 "interested" people.

polls only reflect the view if people respond to the question..my argument is that many will respond with..not interested

i know its very important to you Clive...speed figures are to me:)..but unfortunately people don't share our interests to the same degree. Apart from people who run their own business..most folk aren't that bothered imo...i can't prove that but i judge it on a number of observations throughout 50 years of living. The last place i worked had a wide spread of people..there were only 2 people i knew that ever talked about politics in the whole place..about 130 people. Strictly come dancing..IACGMOOH..but not politics. Strangely enough..probably similar % to the interest shown on this forum.

Maybe we need a poll where people are asked simply..are you interested in politics?
Click to expand...

the answer is yes. It came out in the post election polls regarding ed as a big factor. God knows. He looks like donald trump compared with corbyn
 
EC1 said:
oh dear..you need to see the interview with her Clive..its a toss up who is worse for Labour..her or Corbyn
Click to expand...


Omg

i am absolutely speechless. Agree with warbler on that one. but to have that person defend the horrendously indefensible in the media...

is this true?

who sanctioned that?

This is suicide
 
Last edited:
Why anyone would think corbyn will be leader come election time is beyond me,he'll be out within next 2 years wouldn't even be surpriosed if he wenmt quicker after a few polls start showing labour getting further and further behind personally hope they lose a couple of by elections as soon as possible,Dan Jarvis is a certainty to be leader going into next election former paratropper fought in Afghanistan and Iraq he must be a million on with what's going on at the moment..:whistle:
 
Some priceless off the record quotes from shadow cabinet ministers in the press this weekend. It would appear that the Syria vote could be the final call here. If he tries to whip it through then he will lose a good chunk of his team including Hilary Benn. Also I believe that he is under pressure to do so because his supporters and advisors in particular certainly do not believe in free votes.

the key quote is from one backbencher that states that they have to get rid as soon as possible otherwise the oarty is tainted for the foreseeable future. Voters will have a perception that won't be shifted

one last point is that the mantra that he is a pacifist needs to be ripped apart. You do not chose to support the ira Hamas and Hezbollah is you are a pacifist. It's total crap
 
It's an interesting one for Cameron too

Wars have a habit of starting well and going wrong later. You don't really want to run the risk of having an opposition who opposed an action coming back a few years later saying we told you so. Ideally you want them onside. The Tories did momentarily try this over Iraq and came crashing down in flames when they were hit be a series of attributable quotes from the period of the vote which suggested they were every bit, if not more rabid than Labour. By the same token though, Cameron really doesn't want Corbyn removing
 
clivex said:
the key quote is from one backbencher that states that they have to get rid as soon as possible otherwise the oarty is tainted for the foreseeable future. Voters will have a perception that won't be shifted
Click to expand...

key quote?..Clive i said exactly the same a number of times pages back..weeks ago..one was

I can't see the day when Labour will see power..because the road they have taken now won't be an easy one to get off. They will have 4 years as a party looking like they are Corbynites to the electorate...well they all look like that now with the size of the mandate he got. When it goes to tits..they will then have to change to a more middle ground..basically saying it was wrong. Electorate will just think they change with the moon and look to the tories

i'm surprised to see someone within has took so long to quote it..its been obvious from day one that voter perception will be hard to change...i'd say even if he went now they would be struggling to shake the perception off before the next election.

i'll say now..i think he will stand down rather be removed...i think the strain is already showing..i'll say within the next 12 months he will stand down. Might be too late though for them to change perception before next election even if he did go in 12.
 
Yes but you are not an mp. Ec. You are a nobody :)

Entirely agree with last para.
 
Last edited:
I thought you were firmly in the party will split camp? Have you changed your view? or are you now predicting that Corbyn will stand down and that the party will split?
 
How do I know what will happen? Thinsg change from week to week. Today's poll showing that labour members are even more behind their glorious leader whereas the public are deserting make it pretty clear that there is a huge problem

again Rachel sylvesters piece in the times is devastating. This is close to all out war in the party. You have the extraordinary unprecedented situation where the party and its MPs despise each other

i did think that terrorism and his clear absolving of the perpetrators would be the defining moment. The Venezuelan economics are yet to come

there has never been anything close to this is memory. This is a huge moment in british politics.

Good of example given of priorities. McDonnell is spending the day of the autumn statement addressing the far left wing group gradually taking over the mechanism of the party. He is supposed to be the shadow chancellor ffs. Isn't that as clear as anything we have seen that his grouping has no interest in opposition or power but is purely interested in ensuring that the party is firmly under the control of the extremists?
 
Last edited:
Don't agree withl that the next election is lost for labour at all it all depends on corbyn getting botted out quick enough as I said above,a government nobody particularly likes just poor alternatives alternatives,labour haemmoraged votes to ukip they are easily won back by someone like dan Jarvis and the votes tories gain from the don't knows,he would pick up droves of votes plus his policies would be pretty centralist bar tax which should never be afraid to use if you're other policies are decent.
 
Back
Top