The Epsom Derby

1999 I got to stay at Epsom Derby weekend.
Having experienced Melbourne Cup Festival the previous November I was looking forward to getting the feel of Epsom Fever.
Friday evening in Epsom town centre you would never know there was racing up the hill.
As disappointing an experience as I ever had.
Thankfully immediately after the Derby was run I hastened to the train to catch the Eurotrain to Paris , for Chantilly and Montjeu Sunday.
The Greatest Flat race deserves better; a mix of Melbourne and Cheltenham would do nicely re the town experience.
Nothing wrong with the racing; it is the most historic race on the calendar.
 
Well, one horse I will NOT be backing and hope does not win - no offence to anyone who's backed it - is Ambiente Friendly.

I hope Shepherd goes on to stick it up them like the Juddmonte horse's jockey a couple of years ago.

www.racingpost.com

'I can't see the logic' - Derby-winning jockey questions decision as Callum Shepherd is jocked off Epsom second favourite

Derby-winning jockey Martin Dwyer has questioned what more Callum Shepherd could have done after the rider was jocked off the second favourite for... Read More
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, one horse I will NOT be backing and hope does not win - no offence to anyone who's backed it - is Ambiente Friendly.

I hope Shepherd goes on to stick it up them like the Juddmonte horse's jockey a couple of years ago.

www.racingpost.com

'I can't see the logic' - Derby-winning jockey questions decision as Callum Shepherd is jocked off Epsom second favourite

Derby-winning jockey Martin Dwyer has questioned what more Callum Shepherd could have done after the rider was jocked off the second favourite for... Read More
www.racingpost.com www.racingpost.com
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Think the owners have jocked him off because of his ride on Too Friendly on Sunday.
 
tiggers1972 said:
Think the owners have jocked him off because of his ride on Too Friendly on Sunday.
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I've just watched the race with an imaginary lumpy bet on TF to see if I reckoned the jockey blew it.

I'm not convinced he did.

Had he stormed clear of the winner after the line I'd have viewed it differently but the winner was pulling out more at the line and wold probably have won anyway.

It's fair enough to say TF was denied a run for a long way but sometimes that's a blessing as they're saving energy for the final burst, which he found, but it petered out in the last 25 yards.
 

Robert Havlin to replace Callum Shepherd on Derby second favourite Ambiente Friendly​


Is it just me who finds this quite sad for Callum?

If he's not seen as good enough to ride in the Derby, almost by default he's not good enough to ride in any race, which of course is a complete and utter nonsense.

I'd feel quite insulted by the owners if I were Callum. I don't know him, but gutted for him.

He might never get an opportunity like that for the rest of his career.

There's less loyalty in horse racing than Premier League football at the moment.
 
It's something that has happened for years and will continue to happen in future. It seems a bit harsh to me, but the owner pays the bills.
 
I have backed Ambiente Friendly and feel quite ambivalent about this development.

I'm no great fan of Havlin generally and barely regard him as an upgrade to Shepherd who did nothing wrong at Lingfield, knows the horse and I was hoping to see give him a similar ride at Epsom.

I've got a few Tiramisus riding on this, so I hope Havlin gets it right!

The bloke is 50 and has only ridden two Group 1 winners in his life - what sort of an upgrade is this?
 
Sorry for repeating DO's post, I never saw it. That's what happens when you are on the street in the pouring rain.

I fully concur with DO's sentiments.
 
Marb said:

Robert Havlin to replace Callum Shepherd on Derby second favourite Ambiente Friendly​


Is it just me who finds this quite sad for Callum?

If he's not seen as good enough to ride in the Derby, almost by default he's not good enough to ride in any race, which of course is a complete and utter nonsense.

I'd feel quite insulted by the owners if I were Callum. I don't know him, but gutted for him.

He might never get an opportunity like that for the rest of his career.

There's less loyalty in horse racing than Premier League football at the moment.
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So where were you when Rab Havlin got jocked off the promising Danielle in the Lingfield Oaks trial........It happens to them all at some stage of their career and Callum simply doesn't have Rab Havlin experience or know how.
 
Experience - for sure.

Know how?

AFAIK he is 50 yet has only ridden two Group 1 winners his entire career and his record in The Derby isn't exactly inspiring.

Game of opinions, but in mine he's a bang average journeyman.

I don't rate Shepherd particularly either, but I'm struggling to think of this as a jockey upgrade and at least the lad won on the colt at Lingfield and knows him.

I agree with Martin Dwyer, it doesn't make much sense.
 
It's obviously perfectly legal jocking off Callum, it just feels like neglect of taste and decency.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I trust ORs more than RPRs so to me it's adding up to a pretty moderate affair. Most years we do get something making above average improvement and I wouldn't be surprised if Aiden has a surprise package waiting to open up.

But I'm bracing myself for an underwhelming race.
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Headline to Tom Segal's Weekender column this week:

"A Derby surprise could be on the cards in a weak renewal"

He also puts it forward as a possible reason for COT still winning despite his awful run in the Guineas.
 
Tanlic said:
nothing like covering your ass lol
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To be fair, he doesn't write the headline for the column. And the gist of the article is fair enough. If AOB has genuinely made a complete arse of COT's Guineas preparation then he could come back and win the Derby. If not then it's open to a surprise.

I wouldn't want to be taking less than 2/1 COT myself. This isn't a situation like The Minstrel's who was 7/2 for the Derby in the run-up to the Guineas, could only finish fourth and went out to 20/1. He won the Derby at 5/1.

If COT had gone out to 20s I'd have backed him.
 
There is a saying "there are no bad Derbys."

I don't entirely agree with it - some are far better than others - but it usually takes an OR performance of circa 120+ to win it and even in a poor year I reckon it will be 115+.

As oft stated, I think Ambiente Friendly is a progressive colt, proven at the trip on a switchback track.

City Of Troy will need to stay every yard and leave his Guineas debacle behind to beat him, never mind the rest.
 
On my figures, the worst ever [in the time I've been compiling my own] was Oath (118).

I'm always disappointed if I end up rating the winner 125 or less.

I always want to see something blow us away like Troy or Shergar.
 
I think most want that but, sometimes, the worst Championship events can provide the best betting opportunities.

Half the reason I got such good odds ante-post about Kris Krin was many thought: "there has to be something better in the race than that" (there wasn't).

Same applied with less-than-glamorous Cheltenham Gold Cup winners I backed like The Thinker and Charter Party, both freely available at 33/1 until quite near the race when the media finally woke up to what bad renewals they were those years.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I think most want that but, sometimes, the worst Championship events can provide the best betting opportunities.

Half the reason I got such good odds ante-post about Kris Krin was many thought: "there has to be something better in the race than that" (there wasn't).

Same applied with less-than-glamorous Cheltenham Gold Cup winners I backed like The Thinker and Charter Party, both freely available at 33/1 until quite near the race when the media finally woke up to what bad renewals they were those years.
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True, Ian, but entirely separate things (imo).
 
Ian_Davies said:
There is a saying "there are no bad Derbys."

I don't entirely agree with it - some are far better than others - but it usually takes an OR performance of circa 120+ to win it and even in a poor year I reckon it will be 115+.

As oft stated, I think Ambiente Friendly is a progressive colt, proven at the trip on a switchback track.

City Of Troy will need to stay every yard and leave his Guineas debacle behind to beat him, never mind the rest.
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They say the same about the Champion Hurdle but someone forgot to tell Sublimity.
what keeps ring in my head is Ryan and AOB saying there is no end to City of Troy he just keeps going and Ryan can hardly pull him up. As much as I decided to lay off my bet I think I will regret it...the horse was an absolute superstar and one bad day out surely won't change that.
 
Boost for Ambiente Friendly there and I'm delighted to aftertime that I did a little related-contingency double Meydaan to win that and Ambiente Friendly to win The Derby just before the race.
 
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