The Epsom Derby

I watched a video yesterday of CoT galloping. He’s a really beautiful mover but that aside, he looks tiny in comparison to his galloping companion.
 
Mr Hampstead E/W for me. Rank outsider. No form. Owners a bit arsey. But as I know Hampstead, and spent much of my youth playing by the ponds, what's not to like eh. Perfect logic for an open race where everyone's guessing.
 
Outsider said:
Willie Carson is not impressed with COT
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You'll go skint quick listening to him
Outsider said:
Willie Carson is not impressed with COT
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If you had a pound for every punter he had when riding you would be pretty wealthy.,if he told me it was 10am I would check the sky to make sure it was the sun up there and not the moon. Shrewd with money useless as a pundit/tipster.
 
Aob was on a high one minute and a low after the 1000G. If anything he proved again he can get horses to bounce back like Luxembourg did in the CC. I refuse to believe COT was a flash in the Pan
 
Mick Kinane feature on RTV very interesting with regards to Johannesburg.
Mick revealed that the horse did not train on due to respiratory issues.
Signs on the Scat Daddy stock that crossed the Atlantic required firm ground and tongue ties to show their best form.
Wonder if COT will ever get acquainted with the taste nylon stocking.
 
I had the hots for City of Troy in the Guineas and I don’t think I buy Aiden’s heart rate excuse which sounds a bit clutching at straws. Jinny talks about him looking tiny a few posts back and maybe it’s a case of a good big ‘un will usually beat a good little ‘un. Anyway, I’m deserting him and going with the AA. That’s Ancient Wisdom who has a bit of class about him and is going to stay the distance; and Ambient Friendly who doesn’t seem to have been given the credit he deserves for trouncing a decent enough field in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
 
Marb said:
Mr Hampstead E/W for me. Rank outsider. No form. Owners a bit arsey. But as I know Hampstead, and spent much of my youth playing by the ponds, what's not to like eh. Perfect logic for an open race where everyone's guessing.
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Backing the fav aswell. When I think about City Of Troy's Guineas run, and console my gut, the gut tells me, he wasn't tuned up. Will Aidan tell us that? Err no. But the gut tells me he's a lot better than that.

So I'll take the fav and the rank outsider each way against the field.
 
Did read an article that the stats for Stall one or two in the Derby only has at best a 6% strike rate when 8+ runners. COT has a lot to do.
 
If you listened to Kevin Blake on the Opening Show he rightly said many of those over the years who have been drawn in 1, were no hopers anyway. Of those with good chances, four out of the five have won.

He also made a very interesting case for COT explaining why he thought he ran so poorly in the Guineas explaining that he has a perfect middle distance profile but in the Guineas he ran the first four furlongs at 7 furlong pace so was never going to sustain it. They showed what he meant and he does have something. I think he talks a huge amount of sense at the best of times and on this basis, COT could do an AR.
 
Just my view, but it's a mediocre Derby,the fav apart, and bound to draw criesof "but what dud he beat" when C.O.T. romps home.
 
Let's hope so Reet. C. O. T roping home that is.

Only the jinx of me sticking him in the each way yankee can get him beat.
 
Heart over head but for the pure mischief of the story Dallas Star ew for me.
Dam line is one of Wildenstein's finest, fitting given the owner's recent history.
Owner , credit to him is good to support smaller lesser known trainers.
David Egan needs this win to cement him the World Class rider he is.
 
Those you like a coincidence might try Ambiente Friendly.
Sixty years ago stable jockey/ stable lad Willie Burke was replaced by a fifty year old Scobie Breasley to ride Santa Claus in the Derby.
Breasley won but was jocked off by connections as they considered he gave the horse too much to do, leading just before the finish.
 
City Of Troy.......He'll either win by half the track or be beaten out of sight. I am sticking with him 9/10

Ancient Wisdom: Went off short priced favourite for the Dante and was obviously expected to go close.
He took absolutely forever to get going in the straight and scraped into 2nd from a very ordinary animal.
The extra 2 furlongs will help but Epsom is fast and furious and isn't a track for stayers..can't have him at all 4/10


Ambiente Friendly is a definite improver, trip will suit him and he should act on the course. The soft ground may be against him which is a worry but I reckon he will go close...good EW bet at 6/1 7/10

Los Angeles: Could run into a place but he has to improve at least 5lbs to get involved. Won a very ordinary race last time this is a totally different ball game 6/10

Dancing Gemini: He goes straight from 8f to 12f which makes him hard to work out. @nd in a French Group 1 but that was a pretty ordinary affair. Popular EW bet but having delved deeper I don't think he has a cat in hells chance of being placed 3/10

Macduff: I could see him running really well and even winning. Unexposed he has a touch of class and looks the best EW bet in the race 8/10

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CoT still has a lot of quality in the way he walks and I can’t get away from him. Small on LA and Macduff (for my mother mainly as it’s her maiden name)
 
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