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The Epsom Derby

Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
12,108
Location
Bangkok Thailand
A few positive words from Aiden O'Brien and the 7/1 City of Troy quickly becomes 7/2

Unless you think 2 or 3 grand is a a massive amount to be betting in the UK's premier flat race we now have a false favourite.

I myself asked for 8/1 for 200 pounds the day after the Guineas and they said max bet 143 pounds..I mean come on it's the f$%^ing Derby.

Basically we can't trust the market.

City of Troy was definitely the best 2 year old we have seen in years. While Aiden tends it hype all his leading contenders each year
his body language was different this time and he could hardly contain himself during an interview.

It would come as no surprise if he won the Derby pulling the proverbial cart.

The opposition is very hard to evaluate. Arabian Crown has done nothing on and is a group 3 horse at best to date.
In most years that simply wouldn't be good enough but it never stopped Godolphin winning with Adayar.

Ambient Friendly won a weakly contested Lingfield Trial. He might end up a useful stayer in time but he hasn't got the toe to win a Derby.


I honestly think City of Troy is everything Aiden said he is and will bounce back and absolutely destroy this field
 
I hope that’s not rose tinted spectacles, tan. The same might be said of paddock experts who down played his lack of size and that he didn’t seem to have thickened up much. Aiden still waxes lyrical, although I’m not sure what to make of his “heart rate” excuse - sounds a bit clutching at straws to me. I thought he was a certainty for the Guineas and good luck to him if he wins the Derby, but it’ll be without me.
 
Aidan O'Brien fronts a commercial operation - he is a marketing mouthpiece as well as a trainer.

He is obviously a very good trainer (fantastic resources notwithstanding) but his words cannot be taken at face value.

Every year the pressure is on him from his employers to laud the latest as his best ever.

Auguste Rodin last year was his finest ever training achievement in my book - well beaten in the 2,000 Guineas, won The Derby.

But he was a Deep Impact out of a Galileo mare, bred to be better at three than two and over 1m4f.

For me, the Jury is out on Justify - more good 2yos than 3yos so far.

In 1978 Vincent O'Brien's Try My Best was last at even money in the Guineas.

And Inkerman started 4/1 favourite for The Derby, purely based on who trained him (plus Lester Piggott riding).

The search partys are still out on Epsom Downs looking for Inkerman 46 years later.

Reputations don't win The Derby on their own, nor do internet postings.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Aidan O'Brien fronts a commercial operation - he is a marketing mouthpiece as well as a trainer.

He is obviously a very good trainer (fantastic resources notwithstanding) but his words cannot be taken at face value.

Every year the pressure is on him from his employers to laud the latest as his best ever.

Auguste Rodin last year was his finest ever training achievement in my book - well beaten in the 2,000 Guineas, won The Derby.

But he was a Deep Impact out of a Galileo mare, bred to be better at three than two and over 1m4f.

For me, the Jury is out on Justify - more good 2yos than 3yos so far.

In 1978 Vincent O'Brien's Try My Best was last at even money in the Guineas.

And Inkerman started 4/1 favourite for The Derby, purely based on who trained him (plus Lester Piggott riding).

The search partys are still out on Epsom Downs looking for Inkerman 46 years later.

Reputations don't win The Derby on their own, nor do internet postings.
Click to expand...
To be fair to Inkerman, he was a close fourth , beaten just over a length in Irish Derby and later won $1,000,000 in USA.
Point taken though; interesting Irish Angle last week on journalist's first interview with APOB post Ballydoyle move.
The gist was he spent a few minutes explaining a poor performance to Alan Sweetman and Tony Sweeney only for J Magnier to take Aiden away, explaining to Aiden that explaining a poor performance immediately post race is not part of his job.
Remember Tate Gallery ?
Last in the 2000 Gns behind Dancing Brave but his stallion advert quoted
" Such was his speed that Lester Piggott wanted to come out of retirement to ride him in 2000Gns "
 
I believe Inkerman finished 21st of the 25 runners behind Shirley Heights at Epsom.

Apologies, I now realise you were referring to the Irish Derby.

Yes, he did run much better at The Curragh, a race I bizarrely watched inside the Ladbrokes tent at Headingley because umpire Dickie Bird considered the outfield too wet to allow a ball to be bowled all day in the England v Pakistan Test Match.

I never did get to see any live Test cricket as me and my Dad decided that day that racing was the more weather-proof sport.
 
To be fair to Aiden most trainer are known to exaggerate on how good their young horses are. Richard Hannon told us his was the best he ever trained..might coul turn out to be but I have my doubts.


.Aiden did say he thought Auguste Rodin was his best chance of doing the triple crown but the 2G put paid to that idea ...after winning 2 Derbys he flopped again ..that proved to be another off day as he won the Champion Stakes and the Breeders. Knocking him by saying he was exaggerating is nonsense. Horses make fool of us all because they can be very unreliable. As for City of Troy he would have picked up Auguste Riding and carried him as 2year olds. If he has trained on and the Guineas was a one off he will win the Derby Imvho.
 
Arabian Crown NR.

Come on, the Ambiente!

City Of Troy winning would be an alright result too, tbh, as I took a bit of 12/1 last year, but I still can't have him, certainly not at current odds.
 
The shorter the price the better....I started laying him off and no sooner than I have done he's been cut to 2/1.....no way am I going to let him run at that price and will be laying back every penny despite the fact i think he will win..........just too much money to risk after the guineas
 
With the trials now pretty much done, it's possible a back-to-rom COT could win it in his sleep.

Current RPRs:

COT 123
Henry L 116
Ancient W 114

Next are Arabian C (NR?) and Dancing G on 113 but only 108 and 109 respectively on ORs.

Ambiente Friendly is ahead of them on OR 111 but behind them on RPRs.

I trust ORs more than RPRs so to me it's adding up to a pretty moderate affair. Most years we do get something making above average improvement and I wouldn't be surprised if Aiden has a surprise package waiting to open up.

But I'm bracing myself for an underwhelming race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
With the trials now pretty much done, it's possible a back-to-rom COT could win it in his sleep.

Current RPRs:

COT 123
Henry L 116
Ancient W 114

Next are Arabian C (NR?) and Dancing G on 113 but only 108 and 109 respectively on ORs.

Ambiente Friendly is ahead of them on OR 111 but behind them on RPRs.

I trust ORs more than RPRs so to me it's adding up to a pretty moderate affair. Most years we do get something making above average improvement and I wouldn't be surprised if Aiden has a surprise package waiting to open up.

But I'm bracing myself for an underwhelming race.
Click to expand...

I've just checked DG's form and I'm thinking 20/1 might not be a bad bet. It was second in the Poulains but, by Camelot out of an Australia mare, it is entitled to improve significantly for the Derby trip.
 
I remember before The Derby in 1979 the consensus being it was a 4/1 the field poor renewal.

Then Troy won it by seven lengths from subsequent Eclipse winner Dickens Hill with subsequent Champion Stakes winner Northern Baby another three lengths back in third.

Ever since, I've kept an open mind on the subject.

I still think Ambiente Friendly has a decent chance.

Btw I thought Dancing Gemini was likely to run in the Prix Du Jockey Club?
 
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Ian_Davies said:
Btw I thought Dancing Gemini was likely to run in the Prix Du Jockey Club?
Click to expand...

I tend not to follow racing news so had no idea.

I've cashed out for a 5% hit but I'm looking upon it as a 95% save.

I reckon its breeding is screaming the Derby but the French one will be the easier race.
 
Well, I sincerely hope I've saved you money and not cost you money!

Sounded to me like Chantilly was the more likely plan after reading the attached....
 

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Timeform's top 3yos as of 15 May, for those who may be interested:

THREE-YEAR-OLDS
125pNOTABLE SPEECH
123CITY OF TROY
121ROSALLION
120HENRY LONGFELLOW
119pVANDEEK
118ANCIENT WISDOM
117AMBIENTE FRIENDLY
117STAR OF MYSTERY (f)
116HAATEM
116ICE MAX
115BUCANERO FUERTE
114pARABIAN CROWN
114pINISHERIN
114pOPERA SINGER (f)
114BIG EVS
114DANCING GEMINI
114HIDDEN LAW
114TAMFANA (f)
114UNQUESTIONABLE
 
FAO Mr DesertOrchid - Desert Gemini does now run in The Derby at Epsom.

PA Sport News: "Roger Teal has given Dancing Gemini the green light to line up in The Derby following a pleasing racecourse gallop at Epsom this (Tuesday) morning.

Twice a winner from five starts as a two-year-old last season, the son of 2012 Derby hero Camelot has already come close to claiming Classic glory this spring, finishing a half-length second to Metropolitan in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains, the French 2000 Guineas, at ParisLongchamp.
Another trip across the Channel for the French Derby was under consideration, but having seemingly taken well to the cambered Epsom track in a workout with high-class sprinting stablemate Chipstead, he is poised to take his chance in the world’s most famous Flat race on June 1.
Teal said: “I’m very happy, he looked good coming down the hill. Will (Cox) said he handled the track beautifully and although we didn’t go mad, it was a nice healthy exercise.
“William said it all went well, so I think we will roll our sleeves up and come here. While it’s tempting to go back to France, coming here with a live contender is unbelievable.”
 
Ian_Davies said:
FAO Mr DesertOrchid - Desert Gemini does now run in The Derby at Epsom.

PA Sport News: "Roger Teal has given Dancing Gemini the green light to line up in The Derby following a pleasing racecourse gallop at Epsom this (Tuesday) morning.

Twice a winner from five starts as a two-year-old last season, the son of 2012 Derby hero Camelot has already come close to claiming Classic glory this spring, finishing a half-length second to Metropolitan in the Poule d’Essai des Poulains, the French 2000 Guineas, at ParisLongchamp.
Another trip across the Channel for the French Derby was under consideration, but having seemingly taken well to the cambered Epsom track in a workout with high-class sprinting stablemate Chipstead, he is poised to take his chance in the world’s most famous Flat race on June 1.
Teal said: “I’m very happy, he looked good coming down the hill. Will (Cox) said he handled the track beautifully and although we didn’t go mad, it was a nice healthy exercise.
“William said it all went well, so I think we will roll our sleeves up and come here. While it’s tempting to go back to France, coming here with a live contender is unbelievable.”
Click to expand...

Appreciated, Ian!
 
As I am all set and doubled my dosh I should try and find one to actually bear City of Troy despite the fact I still think he'll win by half the track0

Dancing Gemini ew as good as any
 
Kind of as an aside but did Cazoo sponsor the Derby & Oaks recently.

I ask because I see it's collapsing as a business and reminded me that I said to Mrs O a couple of years back that I couldn't understand how it could afford the sponsorship.

Is sponsorship tax deductible?
 

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