The Festival Handicaps

At those I prices I'm sure one or two will happily pay to find out.
I've no firm opinion on the race so might go with Maruco's selection.
 
Grasshopper said:
I'm not an enthusiast for Cold March, Paul.

His first steeplechase outing was a provincial 3-runner affair, and the form of the second outing is only so-so, in my view. If they'd really expected him to go on over fences, and make the top-grade as a 4yo (which a horse with pretensions to being 145+ should be thinking about), then they would surely have run him in the Prix Ferdinand Dufaure at the June meeting, instead of dropping him back into hurdles.

In my view he didn't run enough times (and wasn't highly-enough tried) over fences in France, to adopt a strong position around his rating, and I think that suggested marks in the mid-140's are a little bit fanciful, to be honest. The only way to produce such a figure for Cold March, is if you took a very literal view of the form against Protekapril.....and that takes too much a leap of the imagination - for me at any rate.

With 7 steeplechase runs under his belt, and a degree of consistency shown in each of them, I also question whether the 'p' on the rating is justified. His three defeats since joining Venetia have merit, but a degree of legitimacy too, and whilst he is perhaps not entirely exposed yet, I think he's handicapped about right for what he achieved. Quicker ground might perhaps be a plus in his favour though.

My view from the Curmudgeon's Chair. :lol:
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One good way of ensuring a handicap mark stays low is to run the horse half-fit in lower class races. Appears to run well enough without setting the heather on fire. Then get it fit to burst for the day that matters. The Irish have been doing it for years.

Also, given how easy Venetia seems to find it to produce 50/1 shots for these festival handicaps...
 
Tenor Nivernais for me in the ultima - travelled really well in the betbright at Kempton until clattered one 4 fences from home and that finished him. Still reckon 3 miles is his trip and worth a few quid at the price of 40/1.
 
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Away from the championship races i've never got much of a view but my three in the handicaps tomorrow are:

What A Warrior - This horse needs good ground to show his best and has a good record fresh. Skelton has clearly kept him for this and if you can forgive him his Hennessy run (That was a slog of a race on soft ground), which I can, I think he rates a decent bet e/w at 33/1. Yard is in form as well.

Thunder and Roses - I've only had a small bet on this race as I really don't have much of an opinion but I thought this gelding would improve for the trip, is one of the highest rated in the field and a decent pace will help. Small e/w.

Leap Dearg - This horse was ultra impressive last time against seasoned opposition. He's got plenty of weight but the bottom of weight is only off 5lbs less so its almost a conditions race and I think this horse is potentially very good. My only concern is the distance as i think he's better over 2m but if he acts on the ground he should get home. Another e/w bet.
 
Handicaps are looking savage.gone for two who Will come on for better ground Gallant Oscar who run in thyestes and keltus in the last.looked at the 4 miler and with what's left in I can't get away from very wood.
 
Its a bad race without Don Poli and in fairness to Mullins, Don Poli probably would have won the 4 miler in a hack canter but for my own betting purposes, i'm delighted he's not running!!
 
I'm not normally one for backing horses with a string of 1's next to their name, but I agree with Aragorn - Leap Dearg has a sound chance in the 3-mile handicap chase.
 
I backed it to win solely because I was peed off with the ride Nina gave it last year giving it way too much to do - backed Buffalo e/w as well after Pipe was keen on him at Preview Evening.
 
jinnyj said:
I backed it to win solely because I was peed off with the ride Nina gave it last year giving it way too much to do - backed Buffalo e/w as well after Pipe was keen on him at Preview Evening.
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That ride last year was why I backed him today. It might have been in his favour that he had to jump two fences less today. Not the best at his obstacles.
 
Maruco said:
The Cold March bet went astonishingly well right up to the point the tapes went up!
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Hey, at least you're sticking your neck out there and putting up some that may be overlooked. I don't begrudge you the small wager I had on him.

In light of the above I am quite keen on Ttebbob in the Coral Cup at quite a big price. I urge you to watch his defeat to Plinth, particularly the ride Davy Russell gave him. He obviously doesn't get 3 miles but should be right there over this trip.
 
TheBear said:
Hey, at least you're sticking your neck out there and putting up some that may be overlooked. I don't begrudge you the small wager I had on him.

In light of the above I am quite keen on Ttebbob in the Coral Cup at quite a big price. I urge you to watch his defeat to Plinth, particularly the ride Davy Russell gave him. He obviously doesn't get 3 miles but should be right there over this trip.
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Oh dear. Brought down after half a circuit. Might be worth following though judging by Taglietelle's run.

Burn & Turn and Just A Parr are my bigger priced ones today.
 
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